Daily Coffee Report 10/13/26
Daily coffee report
StoneX Coffee Team
- Coffee
El Niño Is Helping Brazil's Arabica and Putting Robusta to a Heat Test
By: Editorial Team, StoneX Media
Brazil's coffee exports have climbed to record levels, running 31% above a year earlier, as the country brings in a record crop. The El Niño coffee picture is splitting along bean lines, with above-average rainfall supporting flowering in Brazil's arabica regions and extended heat building as the main risk for robusta. That split matters well beyond Brazil, because the same weather pattern could also shape rainfall during Vietnam's robusta flowering. For coffee buyers, roasters and producers, the next crop now depends on where each bean is grown as much as on Brazil's harvest size.
Leonardo Rossetti, StoneX Brazil, Market Intelligence Analyst, leads coffee analysis for the firm's South American research team and conducts field assessments across Brazil's main arabica and robusta, or conilon, producing regions. His crop surveys feed StoneX projections on Brazilian harvests, and he tracks how weather, harvest timing and shifts in the global coffee balance move the market.
Key Themes from the Discussion
- Above-average rainfall in Brazil's arabica regions is supporting flowering for the next coffee crop.
- Robusta in Espírito Santo faces heat stress if temperatures stay extreme for an extended period.
- Indonesia, the third-largest robusta producer, has seen very dry conditions and high temperatures.
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Download the StoneX 2026 Commodities OutlookEl Niño Rainfall Supports Brazil's Arabica Flowering and Next Crop
El Niño is often associated with above-average rainfall in Brazil's arabica regions, and that is largely what the country has seen in recent months. Rainfall across many Brazilian producing regions has run well above normal, supporting flowering and crop development. Rossetti puts the weight of that shift plainly, saying "This is probably the most important bearish factor for the market at this moment." Brazilian arabica growers therefore go into the coming season with a positive early outlook, even after the same rains delayed the current harvest and damaged bean quality. Soil moisture in the main arabica regions is well above average, which gives trees a buffer if hotter weather arrives.
Brazil's Robusta Faces Heat Stress Despite Widespread Irrigation
Brazilian robusta carries more El Niño risk than arabica, because robusta regions tend to turn hotter and drier with greater intensity during El Niño years, especially toward the end of the year. Espírito Santo, Brazil's largest robusta-producing state, has received adequate rain so far, and many of its farms run irrigation systems. Irrigation has limits, though, since temperatures above 34°C for an extended period can make plants lose water faster than they absorb it. In that scenario, Brazil's robusta crop could come under stress at a critical stage of development. According to Rossetti, "this could create stress for the crop and deserves a close attention for these next months."
Robusta Supply Risk Extends to Indonesia and Vietnam
Indonesia, the world's fourth-largest coffee producer and third-largest robusta producer, is the origin facing the greatest weather challenges. "The country has experienced very dry conditions and high temperatures in the recent months, which could reduce the country's production potential for the next crop," Rossetti explains. Vietnam is harvesting what should be a good crop, but its next flowering cycle, which usually runs in February and March, is the bigger concern if El Niño remains strong into the following year. Should weather models begin to show below-average rainfall during Vietnam's flowering, the market could start pricing in that risk. Together, Indonesia and Vietnam mean robusta supply risk is building in Asia as well as in Brazil.
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--- Written by Frédéric Guétin, StoneX Media Producer
--- Expert: Leonardo Rossetti, StoneX Brazil, Market Intelligence Analyst
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El Niño Is Helping Brazil's Arabica and Putting Robusta to a Heat Test
El Niño is bringing helpful rainfall to Brazil's arabica regions while raising heat stress risk for robusta in Espírito Santo. Beyond Brazil, dry weather in Indonesia and the timing of Vietnam's next flowering put robusta supply at the center of coffee's weather risk.
Editorial Team
- Coffee
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