El Niño Returns: A Shifting Climate Cycle Raises New Risks for the 2026/27 Coffee Crop

By: Alexis Rubinstein, Managing Editor - Coffee Network

Wed, 06 May 2026, 13:10

CoffeeNetwork (New York) - The global coffee market is entering a transitional period in its climate cycle, with the latest forecasts from the U.S. Climate Prediction Center confirming that the 2025–26 La Niña has dissipated and ENSO-neutral conditions are now firmly in place. More importantly for market participants, probabilities are steadily converging on the emergence of El Niño from mid‑2026 onward, with roughly a 60% chance of development between May and July and a strong likelihood that the event will persist through the end of the year.

For coffee, the timing of this transition is critical. Markets today remain anchored to expectations of a large Brazilian crop and an emerging global surplus, yet the evolving ENSO signal introduces a second layer of risk that will increasingly shape price direction into the 2026/27 cycle. What makes the current setup particularly notable is how closely the expected onset of El Niño aligns with key phenological stages across the world’s major producing regions.

In Brazil, the world’s largest producer, the coming months represent a bridge between harvest and the next production cycle. The 2025/26 harvest is either underway or about to accelerate, and weather conditions during this period are typically less critical for yields than for logistics and quality. The more consequential window lies ahead, during flowering and early cherry development between September and November. A transition to El Niño by mid‑year raises the risk of hotter and drier conditions across core arabica regions such as Minas Gerais during precisely this stage. While current forecasts still carry uncertainty—owing in part to the well-known “spring predictability barrier”—the strengthening subsurface warming in the Pacific suggests that dryness risks could intensify as Brazil moves into its next crop cycle.

For Colombia, the implications are more nuanced but equally important. Unlike Brazil, Colombia’s coffee production is spread across multiple harvest cycles tied to bimodal rainfall patterns. El Niño events typically suppress rainfall across the Andean region, which can disrupt both the main and secondary harvests by reducing soil moisture during key development phases. However, moderate dryness can initially improve flowering uniformity and cherry maturation, potentially supporting short-term quality and output before moisture deficits begin to bite. The timing of a potential El Niño onset in mid‑2026 suggests that the secondary harvest cycle could be the first to feel these effects, with risks building into the main crop thereafter.

In Southeast Asia, where robusta dominates, the signal is more clearly negative. Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, is particularly sensitive to El Niño-induced dryness during its rainy season, which typically runs from May through October. A transition to El Niño during this exact window raises the risk of reduced rainfall and soil moisture deficits during cherry expansion and bean filling. Given that Vietnam is currently exporting at a strong pace and is central to the projected increase in global supply, any disruption to the 2026/27 crop could quickly alter the balance sheet. The same applies to Indonesia, where coffee production depends heavily on consistent monsoon rainfall. El Niño events have historically been associated with drought conditions across parts of the Indonesian archipelago, reducing yields and increasing variability in output.

Across Africa, the impacts are more regionally differentiated but no less significant. East African producers such as Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, and Uganda are highly exposed to shifts in rainfall distribution linked to ENSO dynamics. El Niño often brings above-average rainfall to parts of East Africa, which can be beneficial for crop development if well-timed, but excessive precipitation can also disrupt harvesting, increase disease pressure, and compromise quality. In West and Central Africa, where robusta production is concentrated, the effects can lean drier, introducing risks similar to those seen in Southeast Asia.

What is particularly striking about the current outlook is the divergence between the short-term and medium-term narratives in the coffee market. On one hand, forward-looking supply projections—driven by Brazil and reinforced by strong Vietnamese exports—are exerting clear downward pressure on prices. On the other, the ENSO outlook points toward a gradual reintroduction of weather risk just as the market transitions into pricing the 2026/27 cycle.

This tension is likely to define market behavior in the months ahead. In the near term, futures remain vulnerable to continued pressure as harvest flows increase and surplus projections gain traction. Yet as the calendar advances and confidence in an El Niño event strengthens, attention will inevitably shift toward the potential for weather-related disruptions. The fact that El Niño is expected to emerge during the middle of 2026—rather than earlier in the year—means its most consequential impacts will be felt not in the current harvest, but in the next production cycle across multiple origins.

In that sense, the developing ENSO cycle serves as a reminder that the coffee market remains deeply cyclical—not only in terms of production and pricing, but in its exposure to global climate variability. With El Niño now increasingly likely to define the second half of 2026, the market is entering a period where weather risk, once again, has the potential to reshape the balance between surplus and scarcity.

Alexis Rubinstein

Coffee

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