
Daily Coffee Report 11/4/26
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ENSO Watch: El Niño Continues To Strengthen With A Strong-To-Very Strong El Niño likely through January-March 2027
Coffee Network (Bogota)- El Niño continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through January-March 2027 (remaining greater than an 83% chance), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA said today.
El Niño strengthened further last month, with sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding +4.0°C in portions of the eastern equatorial Pacific.
Most Niño indices increased in the past month, reaching +2.1°C in Niño-3.4, +3.0°C in Niño-3, and +3.9°C in Niño-1+2.
The CPC Official ENSO outlook, which synthesizes multiple models from North America and abroad, indicates El Niño will continue to strengthen through the end of the year.
Chances remain high for a historic event that would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950 (+2.5°C or more for a 3-month RONI value): the chance is 54% for September-November, 83% for October-December, and 70% for November-January.
With an event of this magnitude, the chances of experiencing impacts consistent with El Niño are larger, though not guaranteed. In summary, El Niño continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through January-March 2027 (remaining greater than an 83% chance).
The equatorial subsurface temperature index (average from 180°-100°W) was well above average, reflecting a deeper-than-average thermocline.
Subsurface temperatures remained in excess of +10.0°C at depth in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Low level westerly wind anomalies and upper-level easterly wind anomalies stretched from the western to the east-central equatorial Pacific.
Enhanced convection and rainfall persisted from the central to the eastern Pacific, while anomalies remained suppressed over Indonesia.
El Nino is already taking a toll on coffee plantations.
The departmental coffee committee of Antioquia, Colombia’s second-largest coffee producing region, said the sustained increase in temperatures and the prolonged drought are disrupting the development of coffee plantations, increasing coffee berry borer infestation levels, and raising the presence of defective beans including floaters, withered, underdeveloped, and black beans, the Antioquia coffee committee said.
Yield factors—the amount of dry parchment required to produce a standard 70 kg bag of export-grade coffee—are testing at 98 kg to 100 kg or higher in damaged lots, indicating high infestation rates. Lower numbers represent higher bean efficiency and quality.
By Diana Delgado
Source: the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA
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