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Environmental authorities in Colombia warn of possible El Niño event in second half of 2026

By: Diana Delgado, Contractor

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Environmental authorities in Colombia warn of possible El Niño event in second half of 2026

Coffee Network (Bogota) - Environmental authorities in Colombia issued an early warning about the possible development of the El Niño climate phenomenon during the second half of 2026, the by Colombia’s meteorological agency Ideam, said today.

The alert is based on warming signals detected in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and projections from international climate models suggesting a transition toward conditions typical of the event.

Climate models used by international centers and analyzed by Colombia’s meteorological agency Ideam indicate that sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño-3.4 region could reach around +1°C by the end of 2026. Such thermal anomalies are typically associated with the development of El Niño conditions, although the final magnitude of the event remains under observation.

Between April and August this year, rainfall is expected to decline slightly compared with historical averages, particularly in the Caribbean, Andean and Pacific regions.

Ideam director general Ghisliane Echeverry Prieto said continuous monitoring of the climate system allows authorities to anticipate scenarios and strengthen the institutional response to potential impacts.

“From Ideam, together with the Ministry of Environment, we have issued a warning about the probability of an El Niño event developing in the second half of 2026,” Echeverry said.

She explained that the planet is currently moving toward neutral conditions within the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. However, oceanic and atmospheric indicators show sustained warming in the equatorial Pacific, a signal that often precedes the development of the phenomenon.

“Although we are currently transitioning toward neutral ENSO conditions, ocean–atmosphere indicators show sustained warming in the equatorial Pacific linked to the probability of an El Niño event, especially between June and August this year,” she said.

“We maintain permanent monitoring of indicators such as temperature anomalies and trade winds. If necessary, we will issue early warnings so that authorities and different sectors can activate preparedness measures in response to a possible decline in rainfall in the Caribbean and the Andean and Pacific regions,” Echeverry added.

The water stress that brings El Niño is usually good news for the coffee sector as it needs eight months of sun and water stress to prompt the appearance of the key flowering season.

El Niño began to develop in mid-2023-until early 2024 prompted a much-better-than-expected coffee production in 2024, leading to a coffee output of almost 14 million bags of 60-kg in the calendar year 2024.

By Diana Delgado

 

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