Daily Coffee Report 11/4/26
Daily coffee report
StoneX Coffee Team
- Coffee
Ethiopia's Weather Is Emerging as a Key Coffee Market Story
Alexis Rubinstein
Managing Editor - Coffee Network
CoffeeNetwork (New York) - As Brazil's long-awaited supply recovery finally begins to materialize through stronger exports, another major arabica origin is entering a critical period that could have important implications for specialty coffee markets in 2027: Ethiopia.
The world's fifth-largest arabica producer is approaching the start of its 2026/27 harvest season, and while there are few signs of a major production shortfall, growing evidence suggests that weather patterns this year may create a split market between commercial-grade volumes and high-end specialty coffees.
For market players, the situation in Ethiopia deserves close attention precisely because it differs so sharply from the story unfolding in Brazil. While Brazil's market narrative centers on increasing volume and expanding export availability, Ethiopia's conversation is increasingly focused on quality, regional weather variability, and the availability of premium coffees from origins such as Yirgacheffe, Sidama, and Guji.
The broader climate backdrop for Ethiopia has been less favorable than in many competing coffee origins. Regional climate forecasts issued by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) and other meteorological agencies projected below-average rainfall across much of Ethiopia during the June-to-September rainy season, accompanied by above-normal temperatures. Forecasters highlighted elevated probabilities of rainfall deficits and delayed seasonal precipitation across large portions of the country.
At first glance, such forecasts would normally raise concerns about Ethiopian coffee production. However, Ethiopia's coffee belt is concentrated primarily in the southern and southwestern highlands, where weather conditions have been more favorable than in the drought-prone northern and northeastern regions that dominate national rainfall discussions. Seasonal outlooks from the Ethiopia Meteorology Institute indicate that portions of southern Ethiopia, including several important coffee-growing districts, have likely received near-normal or above-normal rainfall. As a result, there is currently little evidence that Ethiopia is facing a nationwide coffee production crisis.
The most widely cited forecast continues to come from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, which projects Ethiopia's 2026 crop at approximately 11.6 million 60-kilogram bags, with exports expected to reach roughly 7.8 million bags. Multiple industry reports referencing USDA data describe the upcoming crop as larger than the previous season and generally supportive of export growth.
Those figures place Ethiopia among the world's largest arabica-producing nations and suggest the country will remain a critical supplier to specialty and commercial buyers alike. Importantly, there has been no widespread downgrade in national production expectations despite this year's weather concerns.
That contrasts sharply with episodes in recent years when drought, erratic rainfall or logistical disruptions triggered broad concerns about crop losses across the country.
While national production estimates remain relatively stable, exporters and origin-based market participants are increasingly discussing a different issue: quality.
According to market reports from Ethiopian exporters and specialty coffee traders, weather irregularities during flowering appear to have affected portions of the country's highest-value coffee regions. Several reports indicate localized yield reductions of 5% to 7% in premium southern districts, particularly within parts of Yirgacheffe, Gedeb, and Guji, following erratic rainfall patterns during key development stages.
Other origin reports describe a market in which total production appears adequate, but premium washed coffees remain significantly tighter than overall crop statistics would suggest. Exporters have reported higher cherry prices, shorter offer validity periods, and growing competition for top-tier lots from southern producing regions. A larger national crop does not necessarily translate into abundant supplies of Grade 1 washed Yirgacheffe or premium Guji coffees.
Commercial and lower-tier coffees appear broadly available, supported by strong production in western origins and natural-process coffee regions. Meanwhile, the highest-scoring washed coffees from southern Ethiopia are expected to remain tightly allocated.
The timing of the current weather discussion is significant because Ethiopia's next harvest is only weeks away. Harvesting typically begins in October, accelerates during November and December, and continues into January across many producing districts. During September, importers traditionally draw down inventories while awaiting the first assessments from the new crop.
Over the next two months, market participants will shift from relying on forecasts and climate models to evaluating actual cherry development, harvest yields and cup quality.
If current forecasts prove accurate, Ethiopia will produce a healthy crop and maintain strong export volumes. But if weather-related stress has indeed reduced yields or quality in portions of the country's premier coffee districts, roasters competing for top-scoring washed coffees could face another year of tight allocations and elevated premiums.
Alexis Rubinstein
Sources: USDA, IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC)
- Coffee
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