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By: Josh Linville, Vice President- Fertilizer
I believe a big part of the reason that we have not already seen prices increasing (actually seeing paper values up $40+ since I wrote this) is that the market is waiting to see what fall demand looks like. The last time we were in the vicinity of these values, phosphate demand was down 32% with most of the losses attributed to demand destruction. However, if we start to see good demand in the next couple weeks, watch out.
Lastly, I do not expect prices to tumble if we have a bad fall run. If we have poor demand in the fall, that normally leads to high inventories going into the winter months and producers having to get aggressive to clear product. That should not be the case this time around as North American producers can simply export their stockpiles. Florida used to export millions of tons all around the world and they can do that again. Australia will be a willing buyer. India is well behind on stockpiles. If there is one thing a producer loves, it is options.
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