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By: Josh Linville, Vice President- Fertilizer
It doesn't seem to matter if the news on potash is bullish or bearish, at the end of the day prices have been bullish straight thru. There have been 2 or 3 moments when the information appeared to be solidly bearish and we expected prices to fall back. To our surprise, at best prices remained flat and at worst they continued higher.
Eventually, the rally has to stop but it has us wondering when that will be.
This isn't really something that happened in the last 30 days but I found it interesting. In the last 12 months, NOLA potash barge values have climbed around $360. That means on average, potash prices have moved $1 higher per day. For those that track potash, you know that potash prices take a long time to move higher or lower. This price gain is unprecedented by recent year history.
Even though it became a non event, it is still worth watching. Just recently, the head of a group that helped Belarusians escape the country was found hanged in a tree. It was set up to look like a suicide but police are investigating it as a murder. One of Belarus's Olympians are begging for asylum as she fears for her safety/life if sent back to Belarus. While things may have calmed, sometimes all it takes is a spark to reignite the fire. That country accounts for 15% of world operating capacity and could severely disrupt the potash market if cut off from the world.
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A cluster of positives has finally tilted the fertilizer market toward buyers, from China's return to normal urea exports to fresh Moroccan phosphate cargoes bound for the U.S. Yet the whole picture still hinges on one waterway, and a prolonged standoff around the Strait of Hormuz could unwind those gains before spring.
Fertilizer supply now depends on a handful of contested shipping lanes and pipelines stretching from the Middle East to Northern Europe. Here is how the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, Russia’s shadow fleet and the Nord Stream pipeline are reshaping where nitrogen, phosphate and potash actually move.
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