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Farmer Fertilizer Focus - Potash

By: Josh Linville, Vice President- Fertilizer

Potash
 
Josh Linville
Director - Fertilizer
What everyone wants to know first, what do we think will happen going forward
If any fertilizer product has the chance to see prices fall, it is potash...I just wouldn't expect it anytime soon.
Production around the world continues to churn along with no new issues.  However, global inventories are still snug as we approach fall in the Northern Hemisphere.  Going forward, it seems more of the market depends on if demand will come as expected or if it will disappoint.  We still expect a solid corn crop which needs solid potash applications to raise. 
What has happened in the last 30 days?
It was another quiet month for potash
For the most part, there hasn't been any significant changes and/or headlines pertaining to potash.  The situation in Belarus continues to be watched, but no change.  Canadian producers are attempting to ramp up production, but not change.
Inventories are tight and perceived demand is high.  If the fall plays out as expected, the market will be mostly empty once again, it will struggle to refill in time for spring and prices will remain high.  
Where are current values in relation to the past
For potash, we use NOLA/New Orleans Louisiana as our base point as it is the easiest spot to track.
  • Vs 30 days ago - +13% or approximately $74 higher
  • Vs 90 days ago - +33% or approximately $164 higher
  • Vs 6 months ago - +131% or approximately $374 higher
  • Vs 1 year ago - +230% or approximately $460 higher
Bull/Bear Factors
Because no market is ever guaranteed to go higher/lower, we try to consider the factors that can sway values so that we are able to act when they occur rather than react.
Bullish Factors
  • Too close to fall season for any surprise supply arrivals – time is running out to prepare for fall.  If product isn't already in place, it is almost too late.  That mean supplies are set where they are.
  • Logistics continue to struggle – it seems every logistical route is struggling.  Bulk vessel freight rates have tripled.  Barge rates are climbing and river levels are low.  Trucks are hard to find.  No one trust rail movements.  If you cannot get in season resupply...
  • World production is controlled by relative few regions – Like OPEC and oil, relative few regions around the world control most of the worlds operating capacity.  Less regions means less chance someone "steps out of line" and starts ramping up production.  This isn't to say there is collusion but they know keeping stockpiles low keeps prices high.
Bearish Factors
  • It only takes one producer to ramp up production to cause the others to fall – it only takes one for the group to fall apart.  If one producer/region starts ramping up production at these extremely high values, the others may follow.
  • Fall demand destruction could be bigger than anticipated – the word on the street is that farmers are unhappy with current potash values!  If enough of the market says no this fall, we will go into the winter months very full which will cause producer stockpiles to grow to uncomfortable levels.
  • If grain prices falter, farmers may legitimately not be able to afford it – for a lot of "fringe" acres, farmers simply cannot afford to plant corn.  At their highest expected yields, todays values do not pencil out.  We may have lost more acres than we know already.
ARE WE BETTER OR WORSE OFF THAN WHERE WE WERE?
We believe that only looking at the flat price of either grains or fertilizer can be misleading:
  • Only selling grain can hurt you if fertilizer prices rise substantially
  • Only buying fertilizer can hurt you if grain prices fall
We look at the ratio "value" to get a better indication of where we are or how many bushels of X does it take to pay for 1 ton of fertilizer.
Would you rather:
  • Spend 120 bushels to pay for 1 ton of potash
  • Spend 50 bushels to pay for 1 ton of potash
When we compare the current ratio value against recent years, we start to see if we are high or low.
YOUR VALUES WILL LOOK DIFFERENT
This graph looks at the NOLA potash price vs the flat grain price. There are no logistics on either product. Your location will look different due to fertilizer logistical costs, grain basis, etc.
image 19067
image 19068
image 19069
image 19070
 
 
Josh Linville’s Thoughts
  • Do not let emotion cloud your judgement.  Trust me when I say that I understand. These prices are very high and the initial reaction is to go without.  For some, that may be the right call.  However, sit down and think thru the ramifications of reducing/deleting your potash applications.  If your yield suffers by more than your cost savings, have you really gotten ahead?
  • Consider a change to applications.  Last year with prices near historical lows, it was easy to just spread a lot all over the place.  With prices where they are, that may not work as well.  Consider things like variable rates application.  Yes the cost is more but if you save more by only applying where it is needed, that is worthwhile.
  • If you change your approach, talk to your supplier.  With prices this high, no one wants to be left holding the bag if prices drop.  That means your supplier may not have tons of inventory sitting around in case you want to buy.  Better to talk thru your approach so they are ready.
 
 
 
  • Fertilizers

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