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By: Josh Linville, Vice President- Fertilizer
"Normally be devastating....". Unfortunately, the global potash complex is still dealing with supply issues. Russia and Belarus both continue to have issues on exporting potash and both of them combine for approximately 14M tons exported every year and it doesn't look like things are improving in the short term.
Today, it seems like the potash market is locked in a slight decline pattern and should continue this for a while into the summer. The market will be aware of losing exports from Russia and Belarus. The market is aware of how many tons that is.
On the flip side, they have to respect the farmers demand at these levels. Producers need to move/sell product and if they do not show a price reset, demand will drag its feet until the last minute before fall.
My expectation is that producers will come out with a summer fill value that is lower than today in an effort to bring demand forward and then will follow it with stair steps higher. That means sell a layer, step the price up. Sell another layer, step the price up.
There is likely to be an opportunity to lock in a "decent" value, but stay on your toes. I'm not sure when it will be and how big an opportunity it will be.
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