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By: Josh Linville, Vice President- Fertilizer
This is something that we have discussed over the last several months. One of our bigger bull factors has been the fear that this case would be filed. Well, here we are.
CF made the news in filing this case against Russia (which was highly expected) as well as Trinidad & Tobago (which was a shock). Anyone who watched the phosphate duty case knew that Russia was extremely likely to be named. The legal precedent has already been set on that case. All CF has to do is scribble out phosphate, write in UAN and they should be set. However, many were surprised at the news that T&T were named as well. That region is actually seen as one of the higher cost regions in the world.
Now we wait to see what happens. The ITC will make their preliminary decision on or before August 13 on if they proceed with the case. If they vote no, the case is closed. If they vote yes, then the case proceeds and it will likely be Q1 '22 before we have the final answer.
This will be a huge disruption to normal import flows and, in theory, should pressure North American plants to produce more UAN than they have in years past to make up for that lack of imports. You will be reading a lot more about this in the coming months as the final decision will go a long ways in determining how the UAN market looks overall.
Producers have decided to not waste any time and go ahead in rolling out their summer fill programs for UAN. The timing isn't really groundbreaking. In fact, it is fairly normal. The only surprise was that some (myself included) believed that they could wait longer this year with low ending spring inventories and the duty case putting almost all of the power in the hands of the producer.
If you haven't heard a price from your retailer, don't chew them a new one. The summer fill programs have been very light on tons offered. Producers are making sure to sell small layers at a time. There is a bit of concern that there could be production difficulties but more, this approach means they can keep upward price pressure.
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