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Farmer Fertilizer Focus - UAN

By: Josh Linville, Vice President- Fertilizer

UAN (28% / 32%)
 
Josh Linville
Director - Fertilizer
What everyone wants to know first, what do we think will happen going forward
Availability is going to stay tight and prices continue to rise.
With the market as snug as it is, producers control every aspect of the conversation and the whole market knows it.  They will use that to their advantage to push prices as high as possible.  With production issues seemingly everywhere, it is scary to think of how high it can go.
I hate saying this, but we could beat historic high price levels set in 2008...
What has happened in the last 30 days?
Hurricane Ida's impact was worse that previously believed
Way worse than previously believed.
We normally expected minimal damage to the facilities in the Delta.  To that point, we were correct.  However, I overlooked one important part of production:  electricity.  With no electricity to the plants, no production occurred for 2 - 3 weeks.
If the market was comfortable with supplies before, it would have been a non-event.  That was not the case.  We came out of spring season very empty as farmers looked to boost their yields anyway possible.  We really needed those 2 - 3 weeks of product.
It has became impossible to find product
Have you gone to your supplier and been told they do not have a price?  Well, do not be mad at them as they are the same as everyone else.  North American UAN supplies are so tight that producers are simply not selling and when they do, it is incredibly small layers.
Yesterday was a perfect example.  CF came out with a "fill" program.  Customers that have 20 - 30K tons of storage were told their price...and then offered less than a thousand tons.  
Unfortunately, I do not see this getting better before spring.
Anti-dumping/counter vailing duty case still pending...not that it matters right now
This case will not be done until sometime Q1/Q2 '22.  However, if it was done today and the verdict was no duty against either Trinidad or Russia, I do not think it would matter.   With European production down, there is a huge supply hole there.  If I were either the Russians or Trinidadians (not sure that is right!!!), I wouldn't want to fight CF.  I would rather go fill that hole.
European natural gas prices have jumped huge
It has jumped to the point where production facilities have shut down.  If the plants had already purchased their natural gas inputs, they make more money sell it back to the market.  If the plants were buying day to day, every ton that they produce today will be at a loss and they will not do that.
There is a significant amount of UAN production that is being lost in this situation.  Global inventories were already tight.  It didn't need help making supplies tighter...
Global urea values continue to rally
As global urea values rise, so will UAN.  If UAN is too cheap compared to urea, demand will flow until it overwhelms supply.  That alone will cause prices to rally.
So as urea continues to go up, so will UAN.  It is a package deal...unfortunately.
Where are current values in relation to the past
For UAN, we use NOLA/New Orleans Louisiana as our base point as it is the easiest spot to track.
  • Vs 30 days ago - +35% or approximately $109 higher
  • Vs 90 days ago - +47% or approximately $135 higher
  • Vs 6 months ago - +47% or approximately $134 higher
  • Vs 1 year ago - +257% or approximately $306 higher
Bull/Bear Factors
Because no market is ever guaranteed to go higher/lower, we try to consider the factors that can sway values so that we are able to act when they occur rather than react.
Bullish Factors
  • Global urea values continue to rise – as urea values continue to rise, UAN rises with it.  If UAN gets to a discount, it will see more demand step up which pushes values higher.  
  • European natural gas prices are remaining high – as nat gas prices stay high, European nitrogen production remains down.  That is a lot of UAN production that is being lost by the day and if gas prices stay up thru next April, that is a tremendous amount of tons that disappear.
  • Growing fear that domestic N.A. producers will not be able to fill the system prior to spring – 30 days ago, I was not worried about this scenario.  I am now.  Spring ending inventories were very low.  We lost production to the hurricane.  European production is down.  Yeah, I'm worried...
Bearish Factors
  • Huge fall NH3 run could steal demand from spring UAN – we expect to see 2M tons of NH3 applied this fall.  For every 1 ton over that estimate, it could steal upwards of 2.4 tons from UAN.  An extra 100K of NH3 applied could result in 240K tons of UAN that is no longer needed.
  • Loss of corn acres spells loss of UAN demand – this is a serious concern.  Our demand models are built on 91M acres of corn.  If that starts to drop to 85 - 87M, that is the loss of a lot of demand which could spell trouble for UAN values.
  • If the global energy situation mellows, European production could come back online – today this doesn't seem feasible but then again, nothing about this year has seemed feasible until it happened.  If nat gas prices plummet and production comes back online, we will have already lost production but we will stop the bleeding.
ARE WE BETTER OR WORSE OFF THAN WHERE WE WERE?
We believe that only looking at the flat price of either grains or fertilizer can be misleading:
  • Only selling grain can hurt you if fertilizer prices rise substantially;
  • Only buying fertilizer can hurt you if grain prices fall.
We look at the ratio "value" to get a better indication of where we are or how many bushels of X does it take to pay for 1 ton of fertilizer.
Would you rather:
  • Spend 80 bushels to pay for 1 ton of UAN
  • Spend 30 bushels to pay for 1 ton of UAN
When we compare the current ratio value against recent years, we start to see if we are high or low.
YOUR VALUES WILL LOOK DIFFERENT
This graph looks at the NOLA UAN price vs the flat grain price. There are no logistics on either product. Your location will look different due to fertilizer logistical costs, grain basis, etc.
image 19071
image 19072
image 19073
 
Josh Linville’s Thoughts
  • Plan on UAN being the premium N product for the coming months.  Inventories are extremely tight and the market will be pushing UAN to a sizeable premium vs urea and UAN.  I know that most farmers cannot change their N source but for those that can, prepare.
  • As the global energy situation gets worse, any chance of UAN prices dropping get worse with it.  Especially in regards to Europe.
  • If/when the ratio gets better, act quickly to secure it.  I know the optimal situation is to buy the UAN at its lowest price and sell grain at its highest price.  If you can do that consistently, I have a job for you!  However, if you struggle like most, take the opportunity when the opportunity is there.
  • Take lots of notes regarding the last year.  Next generations of ag will be wondering what happened!!!
 
 
  • Fertilizers

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