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By: Josh Linville, Vice President- Fertilizer
The Black Swan event of the 2023 fertilizer year is likely going to be the loss of almost all production in Europe due to high cost natural gas. While many, ourselves included, had discussed the possibility of losing more European production, I would be lying if I said I expected almost every plant to go down. I would have been laughed out of most rooms had I made that claim.
Unfortunately, that is where we are today. There are signs of natural gas values backing up which if continued could mean production coming online (major bearish event). But again, this is not something we are currently counting on.
Couple this loss of production with the current India purchase tender (looking to secure 1M tons) and that results in a market with more upside.
Middle East
Egypt
Black Sea
China
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