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Farmer Fertilizer Focus - Urea

By: Josh Linville, Vice President- Fertilizer

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December '22 UREA
 
Josh Linville
Vice President - Fertilizer
josh.linville@stonex.com
major global urea export location price graphs
The intention of the below graphs are not to use to say "my price should be X based on this graph".  These prices are indicated from an FOB price point average.  The intent is to show major global price movement trends.  I have opted to include US Gulf/NOLA in these graphs due sometimes on/sometimes off again export capability.  Also to show N.A. values in relation to the rest of the world.
The first graph shows these prices reflected in metric ton.  The second graph in short ton.  Both are listed using USD as the currency.
image 57207
image 57208
What everyone wants to know first, what do we think will happen going forward
Let's all just assume I have absolutely no clue what I'm talking about when it comes to urea.  I do ok with other fertilizers but I'm complete crap for urea!!!
It was a surprise to see urea values fall following the surprise 2nd India purchase tender where they locked up 1.4mmt of product.  It seemed as though the market would hold flat at least with so many tons taken from the market.  However, it seems the fear of a dead quiet December coupled with improving supplies globally proved to be too much.  The result is that values started to drop, emotional trading kicked in and the floor was really cut.
Today, with urea being so cheap vs alternative N sources (UAN/NH3/etc.), something has to give.  I believe that we will see UAN/NH3 values fall but also believe that urea will move higher to bridge the price gap.  Between urea being "cheap" and Q1 world demand coming, it feels like higher prices are coming.

One of these days I'll be right! 

Should you buy your spring '23 urea needs today
My POV is unchanged:  I would start leaning more heavily into it
I would NOT be ok if you read that statement, went out, bought all of your yearly urea needs and then did nothing on grains.  That still scares the crap out of me.  If you are going to lock up your urea needs, consider selling a piece of grain to offset the purchase as a hedge.
However, with all the global demand coming, worth taking a real hard look at your needs for next year.  Getting harder and harder to see a path where prices tumble.
North American farmers also need to be concerned with logistics.  Yes, global values have been dropping hard.  However, there is a lot of tons that need to be imported prior to spring.  With river continuing to struggle and fears of rail slowdowns/stoppages growing, we need to be more concerned with whether we can get tons in place rather than can we import enough.  Have those conversations with your supplier regardless of if you are locking in your price.  
What has happened in the last 30 days?
Europe has started to restart!
Without diving too far into all the details (check out November or October for more details), European production continues to hold at the higher operating rates.  After being largely written off when natural gas values skyrocketed to just over $100mmbtu equivalent, the market has been shocked with values falling back to the $30's - $40's.  
Europe is still far from normal on production.  After falling to 15 - 30% rates, we believe current rates are closer to 50 - 60%.  Better than most believed possible, but still far from 100%.
In the end, Europe will need to be a bigger buyer of urea for a while which should help support global price ideas.  With no end in sight regarding the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and no real hope of Nordstream pipeline resuming shipments, it is hard to see natural gas values falling to a level that turns all production on.  
image 54420
image 51277
Dutch TTF (Europe natural gas) values remain one of the better urea price indicators
There has been a lot of discussion/speculation as to the best indicator of world urea values over the last several months.  Some point to U.S. natural gas values.  Some point to China export programs.  Theories abound.
From our perspective, one of the best continues to be the Dutch TTF (as shown below).  While the correlation is far from perfect, it remains one of the better ones out there.  
This makes sense as European production is the focal point of the global urea market today. That will not always be the case, but it is today.
image-20221205110553-1
NOLA Urea is cheap vs alternatives
Just when we think the price difference cannot get any wider, the market goes and proves us wrong!
Current NOLA urea - $456 or approximately $0.50/lb of actual N
Current NOLA UAN - $535 or approximately $0.84/lb of actual N
Current Midwest NH3 - $1,295 or approximately $0.79/lb of actual N
Those values put the urea/UAN spread in NOLA at 34 cents.  That is HUGE and there is still a lot of time between now and spring for farmers to consider a switch away from UAN and toward urea.  However, on the other hand, there is still plenty of time for the markets to collapse this spread back to normal which would cause demand to normalize.
image 57209
The same growing price spread has been seen between urea and NH3 values.  As the chart below shows, it is only this year that the price spread has been this wide or wider.  However, this shows the price spread vs fall NH3 values.  We do not yet know spring NH3 values so that may help to narrow the gap...though we are not expecting anything huge in the way of a NH3 price decline.
image 57212
I am not advocating that everyone needs to switch their UAN demand over to urea.  However, I am saying that it is worth a look.  Farmers (as you well know) have to consider the price difference in application of different forms, the cost of buying machinery to handle other forms, the fact that inland price spreads may look different than NOLA, as well as availability.
However, if it is possible to make the switch, a look should be made.
North America logistics in trouble
A common talking point this month are the troubles that U.S. river and rail systems are having and the effects that might occur on North American inland markets.  Unfortunately, today both remain in trouble with little sign of easing.
For the rivers, low water flows continue to impede normal traffic flows.  Fortunately, we have seen some timely rains across the Midwest which have helped to give a short term boost to flows and allow barge traffic to continue.  Unfortunately, those surges are short lived and are far from healing.  For that to happen, significant moisture in the north is needed this winter.  Why is that a problem?  Well, most of the moisture up north between now and spring comes as ice or snow.  That moisture will not be largely seen in the south until next spring.  
The river system (Coast Guard/dredging operations/boat crews) continue to make the best of a difficult situation.  Barges ARE continuing to move but are less efficient.  Barges must be loaded lighter and ships must take less barges per trip. This equates to less fertilizer (and other bulk goods) moving each day.  Barge companies need to cover their cost so rates have increased significantly to offset the inefficiency.  That cost eventually makes its way to you.
For rail, this is the drama that will not stop.  Workers/rail lines continue to fight over terms on contracts with neither showing signs of giving in.  To make matters worse, Washington D.C. voted to ban a strike.  Some have seen this as a huge win as it will force workers to continue working.  I see it as a negative because of the rail workers I know, they will not take that vote well.  More likely that it will cause them to dig in their heels on negotiations and do slow downs/stops if forced to continue after the drop dead date.
All, there is no way for me to explain how bad it would be to lose rail.  Not only for goods like fertilizer and grains, but for most of the things in our homes.  Like the river situation, the end result is that everything will cost you more.
Even worse is the effect on Canadian farmers.  Number 1, the rail situation has little to nothing to do with Canadian lines (please let me know if this is wrong).  Number 2, with them being even further away from points like NOLA and being dependent on those flows, the price difference will be much greater.
India locks up 1.4mmt on their 2nd tender, but it isn't enough to buoy price ideas
Last month, I explained that India had secured 1.5mmt in the widely expected purchase tender and then shocked the world by announcing a 2nd tender of approximately 1mmt.  That tender is now complete.
India ended up securing a shocking 1.4mmt.  The reason this was a shock?  Partly due to the fact that many anticipated that they would only secure 1mmt.  Partly due to the fact that many did not believe that many tons were available.  Around 2mmt were offered and quickly the market shook that info off by saying "most of the tons are probably offered a couple times, there are not that many tons available".  When the tender closed with the news of 1.4mmt being secured, it was a surprise.
However, since then, prices have been falling.  "If they locked up all the remaining tonnage thru the remainder of 2022 and Q1 demand is coming, why are prices falling?".  There are a couple reasons that I see.
1. It didn't leave anything for demand in December.  Fertilizer is a world that constantly needs something to happen.  When the markets go quiet, prices tend to slide.  India stepping forward so quickly meant that the world lose its biggest hope for December business.
2. Supplies are improving.  Chinese exports, while still far from the cumulative year normal, have been improving recently.  There is still fear that exports will be cut again but today, there are little to no signs of that happening.  European production has improved which helps improve supply and cut demand.  
We need to continue to watch for Q1 demand to step forward early with prices where they currently are.  While many are likely holding back in hopes of prices falling further, all it will take is one or two buyers to step in.  If that happens, others may rush forward and cause a bull run.
Russian government placing duties on fertilizer exports
This has been widely discussed recently, but firm action had not been seen...until this weekend.
The Russian government has imposed export duties on fertilizers.  The duties do not go into effect until the value is over $450.  Then, a 23.5% duty is put into place.  An example:
If an exporter sells at $600 fob Russia, the duty rate will only apply to the $150 over $450.  Not the entirety of $600.
While speculation continues, I believe it will have little affect on the markets and the cost will be pushed onto Russian producers/exporters.  Unless the world urea market anticipates lower supplies as a result, prices will remain the same.  Buyers of Russian product are not going to feel bad and pay the duty for the heck of it.  They will force Russian tons to compete with world pricing.  Basically, Putin is penalizing Russian companies to help pay for its invasion.
Keep in mind that this is just my interpretation of what will happen. There are those that would argue I am wrong and they may be.  We will continue to watch and see what happens. 
Where are current values in relation to the past
NOLA/New Orleans, Louisiana 
Number 3 importer (6.3mmt in 2021)
Top 5 import origins
  1. Qatar (19%)
  2. Russia (18%)
  3. Canada (13%)
  4. Algeria (12%)
  5. Saudi Arabia (12%)

Price comparisons

  • Vs 30 days ago - -17% or approximately $94 lower 
  • Vs 90 days ago - -33% or approximately $224 lower
  • Vs 6 months ago - -4% or approximately $19 lower
  • Vs 1 year ago - -39% or approximately $296 lower

image 57220

U.S. Midwest Average

  • Vs 30 days ago - -5% or approximately $34 lower
  • Vs 90 days ago - -18% or approximately $132 lower
  • Vs 6 months ago - +5% or approximately $31 higher
  • Vs 1 year ago - -33% or approximately $292 lower

U.S. Southern Plains Average

  • Vs 30 days ago - -10% or approximately $60 lower
  • Vs 90 days ago - -24% or approximately $173 lower
  • Vs 6 months ago - -7% or approximately $45 lower
  • Vs 1 year ago - -35% or approximately $305 lower

U.S. Northern Plains Average

  • Vs 30 days ago - -12% or approximately $78 lower
  • Vs 90 days ago - -20% or approximately $148 lower
  • Vs 6 months ago - -3% or approximately $15 lower
  • Vs 1 year ago - -34% or approximately $298 lower

Middle East

Number 1 exporter (as a region, not as individual nations)

  • Vs 30 days ago - -11% or approximately $65 lower
  • Vs 90 days ago - -27% or approximately $190 lower
  • Vs 6 months ago - -23% or approximately $154 lower
  • Vs 1 year ago - -46% or approximately $440 lower

image 57221

Egypt

Number 5 exporter (4.6mmt in 2021)

Top 5 export destinations

  1. India (14%)
  2. Argentina (14%)
  3. Turkey (11%)
  4. France (10%)
  5. Italy (9%)

Price comparisons

  • Vs 30 days ago - -6% or approximately $36 lower
  • Vs 90 days ago - -36% or approximately $310 lower
  • Vs 6 months ago - -22% or approximately $157 lower
  • Vs 1 year ago - -40% or approximately $376 lower

image 57222

Black Sea

Number 1 exporter (7mmt in 2021)

Top 5 export destinations

  1. Brazil (20%)
  2. United States (16%)
  3. Canada (8%)
  4. Mexico (7%)
  5. India (3%)

Price comparisons

  • Vs 30 days ago - -17% or approximately $90 lower
  • Vs 90 days ago - -33% or approximately $216 lower
  • Vs 6 months ago - -18% or approximately $95 lower
  • Vs 1 year ago - -52% or approximately $463 lower

image 57231

China

Number 4 exporter (5.3mmt in 2021)

Top 5 export destinations

  1. India (53%)
  2. South Korea (12%)
  3. Mexico (8%)
  4. Chile (5%)
  5. Colombia (3%)

Price comparisons

  • Vs 30 days ago - -9% or approximately $52 lower
  • Vs 90 days ago - -6% or approximately $32 lower
  • Vs 6 months ago - -20% or approximately $132 lower
  • Vs 1 year ago - -46% or approximately $462 lower

image 57232

Brazil

Number 2 importer (7.8mmt in 2021)

Top 5 import origins

  1. Qatar (23%)
  2. Russia (18%)
  3. Oman (16%)
  4. Algeria (14%)
  5. Nigeria (11%)

Price comparisons

  • Vs 30 days ago - -9% or approximately $55 lower
  • Vs 90 days ago - -22% or approximately $155 lower
  • Vs 6 months ago - -16% or approximately $105 lower
  • Vs 1 year ago - -39% or approximately $340 lower

image 57233

Bull/Bear Factors
Because no market is ever guaranteed to go higher/lower, we try to consider the factors that can sway values so that we are able to act when they occur rather than react.
Bullish Factors
  • While Europe is restarting, we have already lost time and operating rates will not be 100% – European nitrogen production restarting has been the surprise of the month.  While this helps to improve the outlook, some damage is already done from lost production.  We also do not anticipate operating rates returning to 100%.  This has been an improvement but Europe is still suffering.
  • We expect China to ban exports again – during normal times, China accounts for 10% of global urea exports.  Fortunately for buyers, they have returned to exporting at smaller levels.  Unfortunately for buyers, we do not expect this to last long as rumor in the market is that another ban will be put in place January 1, 2023.
  • Current urea values are cheap vs last couple years/grain values/N alternatives - long story short, urea is attractive today across multiple comparisons.  This could cause a surge of demand that takes the market by surprise and forces price ideas higher.
Bearish Factors
  • European production is resuming – while it is not resuming to 100% capability nor does it make up for lost production time, this is an add supply/reduce demand situation.  Few believed it possible to see production return and had written off European production from their global S&D's.  Now with it returning, assuming it stays online, supplies rise and demand falls.  Econ 101 says prices are under pressure.
  • China returning - like Europe, this isn't a full return to form.  However, with many believing that China would continue to ban all urea exports, any return is welcomed by those looking for lower prices.  If they continue to export, this adds more supply to the global S&D which can weigh on world price ideas.
  • India moved their purchase tender up significantly.  Does this create a demand black hole later in the calendar? - this is the factor that really grabbed hold over the last 30 days, in my opinion.  Everything following India's purchase said that prices should hold.  However, the lack of demand in December stood out like a sore thumb.  With values down hard, we may see Q1 demand step in sooner than normal and help stabilize price ideas.  If it doesn't and it remains quiet, who knows.
Where are the current urea/grain ratio values today
We believe that only looking at the flat price of either grains or fertilizer can be misleading:
  • Only selling grain can hurt you if fertilizer prices rise substantially
  • Only buying fertilizer can hurt you if grain prices fall
We look at the ratio "value" to get a better indication of where we are or how many bushels of X does it take to pay for 1 ton of fertilizer.
Would you rather:
  • Spend 135 bushels to pay for 1 ton of urea
  • Spend 55 bushels to pay for 1 ton of urea
When we compare the current ratio value against recent years, we start to see if we are high or low.
YOUR VALUES WILL LOOK DIFFERENT
This graph looks at the NOLA urea price vs the flat grain price. There are no logistics on either product. Your location will look different due to fertilizer logistical costs, grain basis, etc.
image 57223
image 57224
image 57225
image 57226
image 57227
image 57228
image 57229
image 57230
Josh Linville’s focal points
  • European production levels - this is my number one focal point for global urea markets.  Not only does losing Europe mean losing a region that accounts for 5% of global production, it also means that we gain that demand as farmers look to replace the tons.  That math works on the flip side as well.  Not to say that Europe is all or nothing on production, but it has the ability to swing the market very quickly and very violently in my mind.
  • Chinese/Russian export rates - both countries, during normal times, are major exporters to the world.  China has been 10% of global trade last few years.  Russia around 14%.  Russia continues to find homes for its product so its part of the supply chain remains.  China, on the other hand, has been largely restricted.  August was a big export month for them but it seems those flows are being stopped (or so we assume).  As long as both powers continue to restrict flows, the global market will feel it.
  • N price spreads pushing demand to urea - I look at this more from a NOLA perspective but it seems this lives around the world.  Current urea values are very well priced when compared against both UAN and NH3.  If this continues, likely we will see more demand start pushing toward urea.  If a person can save money, why not?  Enough demand shifts, prices will shift as well.
  • North American logistics - I'm not going into full detail.  I have done that up above.  I just cannot stress enough how dangerous logistics are going to be this winter.  Not only is it hard to move product south to north, but everyone in the supply chain is scared of prices.  They have been down hard the last couple months and no one wants to carry that risk.  That means carrying less unsold tonnage.
  • Continue talking with your supplier - this goes right along with "North American logistics".  If the market was moving "normally", I would be less concerned.  However, it isn't.  This is not the year to think you can show up in your retailers/coops office on April 1 with a check and think the product will be there waiting for you.  It might...it might not.  At the very least, make sure you are strategizing with your supplier to give the best chance of a smooth spring flow.

All data was sourced from StoneX unless otherwise noted.

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