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Farmer Fertilizer Focus - Urea

By: Josh Linville, Vice President- Fertilizer

 
January '23 UREA
 
Josh Linville
Vice President - Fertilizer
major global urea export location price graphs
The intention of the below graphs are not to use to say "my price should be X based on this graph".  These prices are indicated from an FOB price point average.  The intent is to show major global price movement trends.  I have opted to include US Gulf/NOLA in these graphs due sometimes on/sometimes off again export capability.  Also to show N.A. values in relation to the rest of the world.
The first graph shows these prices reflected in metric ton.  The second graph in short ton.  Both are listed using USD as the currency.
image 59193
image 59194
What everyone wants to know first, what do we think will happen going forward
I can't call the urea market, winter weather is all over the place, our pets heads are falling off!!
A lot of the factors that have driven me to think we are about to find the urea price floor remain in effect:  cheap price vs NH3/UAN, Q1 global demand, continued lower European nitrogen production rates, etc.  However, it seems I have once again underestimated the lack of world business in the month of December...and the ability of European natural gas values to continue to fall.  With that:
Urea feels even better today than where it was last month.  When buying picks up, we anticipate prices going higher with it.  That said, Europe remains the cautionary tale.  Restart announcements begin and I'll be asking you to forget my POV...again!
Should you buy your spring '23 urea needs today
I was a fan of urea $50 higher than it is today and my POV remains relatively unchanged so I like today even more.
I continue to be worried about North American logistics, even if the situation has improved.
I continue to be worried that urea will see an overload of demand switching from UAN/NH3 that will support prices.
I continue to think prices find support globally as buying for spring begins.
However:
I am watching European natural gas values as they may dip low enough to turn more production on.
I am watching grain prices since they look solid now but could see prices dip.
Overall, I like the relationship.  I'm still on the bullish side of urea from that lone perspective and I like buying urea/selling grain to lock in that profit.
Ultimately, the call needs to be yours on whether it works but if someone had told me we would be priced where we are today early this year, I would have laughed at them.  
general global urea information
image 59328
What has happened in the last 30 days?
European natural gas continues to dive...more restarts coming?
When the Dutch TTF (European natural gas futures market) rallied to over $100MMbtu, few thought we would see anything close to where we are today in the next several months/couple years.  That's what makes today's market so shocking.  Values have fallen to the mid-$20's.  I am no natural gas expert so I am repeating what I have heard but the reasons have been:  higher than expected winter temps, higher than expected imports from global supplies, hopes rising that peace talks between Russia/Ukraine will equate to peace and a resumption of normal trades.  Regardless the reason, the markets are down substantially which means the chance of further restart announcements have risen.
If...and that remains a big if...we see Europe restart further production, this will weigh on global urea price ideas.  It would be added supply that wasn't expected...and reduced demand that was expected.
As with everything, everything hinges on things we cannot control and can barely put a POV around.  All we can do is point to this as a driving force going forward.  
 
 
Q1 '23 will see an influx of world demand for urea, and it should be kicked off with India
India shocked the world in November by doing back to back purchase tenders for 1.5 and 1.4M tons.  That was a solid purchase, but more is needed and rumor is we could see them approach the trough sooner than later.
I'll be a little surprised if they do not make an announcement before the first week of January is complete.  What will be more interesting is how the rest of the world reacts.  There is a lot of buying to be done to prepare for application that has been waiting on the market to find a low.  If we get into a situation where everyone tries to come thru the purchase door at the same time...I'll let your imaginations wander.
 
Look at your N alternatives
Now that we have winter/spring NH3 price programs released, we can start to do a better comparison.
First, when we look at NOLA differences between urea and UAN, a huge price differential vs "normal" stands.  The gap has improved with UAN falling but remains well overpriced in comparison.  It is very possible that a much bigger percentage of UAN farmers could be switching this spring.  It is a conversation piece that we have heard repeatedly with the savings in the double digits per acre in some scenarios.  
image 59329
There is a big difference in Midwest values as well.  The graph below shows urea/NH3 nearly equal but the NH3 value being used is the winter fill price which is a steep discount to spring which is where the majority of tons are priced due to lack of storage.  If this graph were updated with the spring number, NH3 would be a 6.5 cent per pound of actual N premium to urea.
image 59331
Again, this is not something (switching) that we expect to see everywhere.  This will be something that works better for some.  Even if it is a small percentage, that can make big swings in the marketplace.
North America logistics have improved...but not out of the woods
Fortunately, we can finally talk about good things happening!
The rail strike was averted and looks like things are chugging along...sorry.
The river system, while still extremely low on water levels, has improved significantly with Midwest rains helping to boost.  While we continue to believe a true fix isn't possible until spring, we will take what we can get.
Ultimately, things are much better...but are still struggling.  With only 3 months before April and a lot of imports needed to match spring demand, there is a lot of work to be done.
We continue to believe that inland values are going to be higher than what we see globally due to that high logistical cost.  That means that even if NOLA see's values down, you may not see it locally.  That is not your retailer trying to hose you.  That is the market trying to force a lot of tons into a market that is struggling to move.
The big takeaway is that conversations with retailers need to continue or pick up the pace.  
Where are current values in relation to the past
NOLA/New Orleans, Louisiana 
Number 3 importer (6.3mmt in 2021)
Top 5 import origins
  1. Qatar (19%)
  2. Russia (18%)
  3. Canada (13%)
  4. Algeria (12%)
  5. Saudi Arabia (12%)

Price comparisons

  • Vs 30 days ago - -9% or approximately $45 lower 
  • Vs 90 days ago - -28% or approximately $175 lower
  • Vs 6 months ago - -11% or approximately $55 lower
  • Vs 1 year ago - -41% or approximately $313 lower

image 59195

U.S. Midwest Average

  • Vs 30 days ago - -11% or approximately $67 lower
  • Vs 90 days ago - -21% or approximately $144 lower
  • Vs 6 months ago - +1% or approximately $4 higher
  • Vs 1 year ago - -38% or approximately $325 lower

U.S. Southern Plains Average

  • Vs 30 days ago - -7% or approximately $43 lower
  • Vs 90 days ago - -22% or approximately $153 lower
  • Vs 6 months ago - +3% or approximately $17 higher
  • Vs 1 year ago - -36% or approximately $298 lower

U.S. Northern Plains Average

  • Vs 30 days ago - -10% or approximately $60 lower
  • Vs 90 days ago - -23% or approximately $160 lower
  • Vs 6 months ago - +2% or approximately $12 higher
  • Vs 1 year ago - -37% or approximately $316 lower

Middle East

Number 1 exporter (as a region, not as individual nations)

  • Vs 30 days ago - -15% or approximately $80 lower
  • Vs 90 days ago - -27% or approximately $173 lower
  • Vs 6 months ago - -24% or approximately $145 lower
  • Vs 1 year ago - -46% or approximately $396 lower

image 59196

Egypt

Number 5 exporter (4.6mmt in 2021)

Top 5 export destinations

  1. India (14%)
  2. Argentina (14%)
  3. Turkey (11%)
  4. France (10%)
  5. Italy (9%)

Price comparisons

  • Vs 30 days ago - -5% or approximately $30 lower
  • Vs 90 days ago - -37% or approximately $320 lower
  • Vs 6 months ago - -21% or approximately $143 lower
  • Vs 1 year ago - -43% or approximately $405 lower

image 59197

Black Sea

Number 1 exporter (7mmt in 2021)

Top 5 export destinations

  1. Brazil (20%)
  2. United States (16%)
  3. Canada (8%)
  4. Mexico (7%)
  5. India (3%)

Price comparisons

  • Vs 30 days ago - -12% or approximately $60 lower
  • Vs 90 days ago - -33% or approximately $215 lower
  • Vs 6 months ago - -13% or approximately $65 lower
  • Vs 1 year ago - -47% or approximately $378 lower

image 59198

China

Number 4 exporter (5.3mmt in 2021)

Top 5 export destinations

  1. India (53%)
  2. South Korea (12%)
  3. Mexico (8%)
  4. Chile (5%)
  5. Colombia (3%)

Price comparisons

  • Vs 30 days ago - -15% or approximately $83 lower
  • Vs 90 days ago - -27% or approximately $170 lower
  • Vs 6 months ago - -15% or approximately $80 lower
  • Vs 1 year ago - -47% or approximately $409 lower

image 59199

Brazil

Number 2 importer (7.8mmt in 2021)

Top 5 import origins

  1. Qatar (23%)
  2. Russia (18%)
  3. Oman (16%)
  4. Algeria (14%)
  5. Nigeria (11%)

Price comparisons

  • Vs 30 days ago - -12% or approximately $68 lower
  • Vs 90 days ago - -30% or approximately $210 lower
  • Vs 6 months ago - -18% or approximately $110 lower
  • Vs 1 year ago - -41% or approximately $340 lower

image 59200

Bull/Bear Factors
Because no market is ever guaranteed to go higher/lower, we try to consider the factors that can sway values so that we are able to act when they occur rather than react.
Bullish Factors
  • European natural gas values can rally as fast as they fell – this doesn't look overly feasible today but it is a possibility.  If we start seeing their natural gas price rally hard, the possibility of plants shutting down looms and that would support global price ideas.
  • Demand surge could support pricing – this is my current expectation.  We already know Q1 demand is coming fast.  However, that demand could be higher with UAN/NH3 prices at such a premium.
  • Grain values are holding/pushing higher - December '23 corn had dipped into the lower $5.90's.  Today, that price jumped to over $6.10.  It's only 20 cents...but it is 20 cents that every farmers balance sheet is going to see/feel.  That good feeling could mean more investment in inputs.
Bearish Factors
  • European natural gas prices are trending lower – if the trend continues, there is a price point in which remaining offline European nitrogen plants restart.  If they restart, that's new supply/lost demand.
  • Q1 demand delays - the trend has continued to be lower so buyers wait until as late as possible.  The longer they wait, the more weight felt by manufacturers.  Eventually that demand has to step back in but in the meantime...
  • Grain prices fall apart - even if they stay high enough to warrant urea purchasing, the simple fact of prices falling would put farmers in a bad mood.
Where are the current urea/grain ratio values today
We believe that only looking at the flat price of either grains or fertilizer can be misleading:
  • Only selling grain can hurt you if fertilizer prices rise substantially
  • Only buying fertilizer can hurt you if grain prices fall
We look at the ratio "value" to get a better indication of where we are or how many bushels of X does it take to pay for 1 ton of fertilizer.
Would you rather:
  • Spend 135 bushels to pay for 1 ton of urea
  • Spend 55 bushels to pay for 1 ton of urea
When we compare the current ratio value against recent years, we start to see if we are high or low.
YOUR VALUES WILL LOOK DIFFERENT
This graph looks at the NOLA urea price vs the flat grain price. There are no logistics on either product. Your location will look different due to fertilizer logistical costs, grain basis, etc.
image 59201
image 59202
image 59203
image 59204
image 59205
image 59206
image 59207
image 59208
Josh Linville’s focal points
  • European production levels - the more their natural gas price falls, the more important this becomes.
  • N price spreads pushing demand to urea - urea still looks pretty darn cheap.  If I was farming, it would be a consideration.
  • North American logistics - same POV as it has been in recent months and as detailed above.

All data was sourced from StoneX unless otherwise noted.

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