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Farmer Fertilizer Focus - Urea

By: Josh Linville, Vice President- Fertilizer

 
February '23 UREA
 
Josh Linville
Vice President - Fertilizer
major global urea export location price graphs
The intention of the below graphs are not to use to say "my price should be X based on this graph".  These prices are indicated from an FOB price point average.  The intent is to show major global price movement trends.  I have opted to include US Gulf/NOLA in these graphs due sometimes on/sometimes off again export capability.  Also to show N.A. values in relation to the rest of the world.
The first graph shows these prices reflected in metric ton.  The second graph in short ton.  Both are listed using USD as the currency.
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What everyone wants to know first, what do we think will happen going forward
There are several factors that are making it tough for me to call the market higher or lower.
  • 2022 Chinese exports are going to finish well behind their 3-year average.
  • European production continues to improve with lower natural gas values.
  • U.S. import needs are down significantly vs last year
  • However, urea demand could be much higher based on UAN/NH3 switching
  • Russian aggression in Ukraine continues and could escalate sanctions which blocks urea exports
  • Global demand has been slow so far in Q1 but could come as a tidal wave in the coming days/weeks.
  • European production has improved but has still left a supply gap that has to be filled

That's a short list...

If I have to make a call, we probably see a little more weakness in the next month but could see a turnaround when demand steps forward.
Should you buy your spring '23 urea needs today
Yes.  While there might be a little more downside, I would rather have my hands on physical product and know it is there than risk supplies over a little more price savings.
The urea price continues to look really good vs alternative N sources.  It actually looks pretty good vs grain values.  I cannot get rid of the thought that logistics may become a concern.  If demand hammers the market like I think it might, you could see global/NOLA values down.  However, if you cannot move that product where it needs to be, it doesn't matter...
general global urea information
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What has happened in the last 30 days?
Where has the Q1 world demand gone?
We fully expected to see a lot of global buyers stepping up as we started the new year.  Frankly, we thought it would start with an announcement by India and then followed by everyone else moving in to position.
Not only have global buyers not stepped forward but India is now rumored to be waiting until later February...if not March.
This has caused a black hole of demand.  An extremely quiet period where production continues and no one wants it.  Fertilizer is known for being terrible at staying quiet.  When the market slows, people have time to sit and think...and ponder worst case scenarios.  That is quickly met with prices falling for fear of missing out.
We expected that December was going to be relatively quiet.  The main buyer, India, locked up 2.9M tons in November so nothing was left to finish the year unless Q1 demand stepped in earlier.  Now, we have gone thru January as well and prices have really struggled as a result.
China exports have improved slightly
China is the world's largest producer of urea and one of the larger exports...normally.
During the fall of 2021, the Chinese government restricted the export of both urea and phosphates as a measure to ensure Chinese farmers demand was met with supplies.  That restriction stayed in place thru a chunk of 2022 (July if the chart tells the story!).  Many believed that the jump in August exports meant a full return to normal which was just in time since September and October were major export months.
That did not end up being the case.  Sep/Oct/Nov fell far short of the 3-year average.  Then there was December.  December exports actually beat the average and saw the biggest number of tons depart thru all of 2022.  
So then it becomes a question of the markets reaction.
Some are looking at this chart and saying "the cumulative total is FAR below the 3-year history and should mean world inventories are much tighter than normal".
Others are looking at this chart and saying "December exports surged and that is a sign that it will continue into Q1, adding a lot of supply that wasn't expected".
Which story ends up being right will depend on January/February...
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Lot of urea imports needed for N.A....but are they coming already?
A big question for the North American urea market is import totals.
The first half of the fertilizer year (July 1 - June 30) was well behind last years torrid pace.  However, that was ok because we struggled with last years pace and our import needs are much lower than last year.  However, we still have "around" 3M tons that need to be imported between January and June.
The question is always this: do the tons get imported because we moved to a premium price to "buy" them in or do they show up regardless.
If we have to buy them in, it means there are tight supplies and we have to compete with other markets to get our needs covered.
If they show up regardless, watch out.  Prices are falling because we are actively trying to push the price lower to make sure tons do not overwhelm us.
Today, it looks like at least January is going to have a lot of tons coming that were not called.  These tons are needed but if it is the start of a trend, you could see the market start pushing lower to keep further vessels from arriving.
Europe continues to improve!
Talk about a perfect scenario for Europe.
Last August, the Dutch TTF (natural gas value in Europe that we track) rose over $100MMbtu with all the things that were going on.  As a result, nitrogen production rates dropped to 20 - 30% of normal.  With western/central European production accounting for 5% of global total, that was a big loss.
Since then, a lot has changed.  Residential demand is down big as people look to cut their needs to save money.  Industrial demand lowered due to the high cost.  Imports surprised many in what could be done.  The biggest factor was a much warmer than anticipated winter season which helped demand stay low.
As a result, that same price point is sub $18 today.  That operating rate?  Now 60 - 65% of normal.
There is still work to be done.  European natural gas values are typically in the single digits so we are still high priced.  However, if/when prices continue to fall, further production restarts should occur which will add more supply/reduce demand to the global S&D.  That's bearish.
Are we underestimating urea demand?
There is a "normal" split in demand between urea, UAN, and NH3.  There is always going to be a certain amount of switching between one and the other but those percentages are relatively small. This year...that may not be the caser.
Urea has seen values drop significantly vs UAN and NH3. We continue to hear from a lot of the marketplace that says switching is happening in a very big way.
The graphs below show how the current values compare.  The first looks at the urea vs UAN price.  The second looks at the urea vs NH3 price.  Both have urea at a sizeable discount.  Not only that but current urea values look really good compared to grain values...at least really good vs last year or two.
If enough switching happens, that will be an unexpected surge of demand that could have the market rallying to try and push that demand away (if there isn't enough supply).   Still a bit early to make a definitive call but high on the list of things to watch and consider.
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Where are current values in relation to the past
NOLA/New Orleans, Louisiana 
Number 3 importer (6.3mmt in 2021)
Top 5 import origins
  1. Qatar (19%)
  2. Russia (18%)
  3. Canada (13%)
  4. Algeria (12%)
  5. Saudi Arabia (12%)

Price comparisons

  • Vs 30 days ago - -22% or approximately $100 lower 
  • Vs 90 days ago - -34% or approximately $185 lower
  • Vs 6 months ago - -26% or approximately $125 lower
  • Vs 1 year ago - -45% or approximately $290 lower

image 62045

U.S. Midwest Average

  • Vs 30 days ago - -19% or approximately $101 lower
  • Vs 90 days ago - -30% or approximately $190 lower
  • Vs 6 months ago - -19% or approximately $101 lower
  • Vs 1 year ago - -34% or approximately $226 lower

U.S. Southern Plains Average

  • Vs 30 days ago - -18% or approximately $95 lower
  • Vs 90 days ago - -29% or approximately $180 lower
  • Vs 6 months ago - -19% or approximately $105 lower
  • Vs 1 year ago - -31% or approximately $198 lower

U.S. Northern Plains Average

  • Vs 30 days ago - -18% or approximately $100 lower
  • Vs 90 days ago - -33% or approximately $218 lower
  • Vs 6 months ago - -20% or approximately $113
  • Vs 1 year ago - -28% or approximately $173 lower

Middle East

Number 1 exporter (as a region, not as individual nations)

  • Vs 30 days ago - -17% or approximately $79 lower
  • Vs 90 days ago - -38% or approximately $235 lower
  • Vs 6 months ago - -28% or approximately $148 lower
  • Vs 1 year ago - -41% or approximately $265 lower

image 62048

Egypt

Number 5 exporter (4.6mmt in 2021)

Top 5 export destinations

  1. India (14%)
  2. Argentina (14%)
  3. Turkey (11%)
  4. France (10%)
  5. Italy (9%)

Price comparisons

  • Vs 30 days ago - -19% or approximately $102 lower
  • Vs 90 days ago - -32% or approximately $207 lower
  • Vs 6 months ago - -34% or approximately $222 lower
  • Vs 1 year ago - -31% or approximately $197 lower

image 62049

Black Sea

Number 1 exporter (7mmt in 2021)

Top 5 export destinations

  1. Brazil (20%)
  2. United States (16%)
  3. Canada (8%)
  4. Mexico (7%)
  5. India (3%)

Price comparisons

  • Vs 30 days ago - -14% or approximately $61 lower
  • Vs 90 days ago - -31% or approximately $172 lower
  • Vs 6 months ago - -21% or approximately $102 lower
  • Vs 1 year ago - -40% or approximately $252 lower

image 62050

China

Number 4 exporter (5.3mmt in 2021)

Top 5 export destinations

  1. India (53%)
  2. South Korea (12%)
  3. Mexico (8%)
  4. Chile (5%)
  5. Colombia (3%)

Price comparisons

  • Vs 30 days ago - -9% or approximately $42 lower
  • Vs 90 days ago - -30% or approximately $180 lower
  • Vs 6 months ago - -14% or approximately $70 lower
  • Vs 1 year ago - -33% or approximately $212 lower

image 62051

Brazil

Number 2 importer (7.8mmt in 2021)

Top 5 import origins

  1. Qatar (23%)
  2. Russia (18%)
  3. Oman (16%)
  4. Algeria (14%)
  5. Nigeria (11%)

Price comparisons

  • Vs 30 days ago - -17% or approximately $85 lower
  • Vs 90 days ago - -35% or approximately $215 lower
  • Vs 6 months ago - -29% or approximately $169 lower
  • Vs 1 year ago - -24% or approximately $128 lower

image 62052

Bull/Bear Factors
Because no market is ever guaranteed to go higher/lower, we try to consider the factors that can sway values so that we are able to act when they occur rather than react.
Bullish Factors
  • European natural gas values can rally as fast as they fell – winter is quickly coming to a close so this feels less and less likely.  That said, we still need to watch.  Some of the coldest temps happen in February...
  • Demand surge could support pricing (same as January) – this is my current expectation.  We already know Q1 demand is coming fast.  However, that demand could be higher with UAN/NH3 prices at such a premium.
  • World demand steps forward all at once - one of the biggest reasons prices have fallen is due to the lack of demand.  Last I checked, we are all going to raise a crop this year.  The longer demand waits to buy, the more that demand grows.  The more it grows, the more the wave hits if it all comes at once.
Bearish Factors
  • European natural gas prices are trending lower – we thought $30's were as low as it would get...until we hit the $20's.  Then the $10's.  The lower the price goes, the higher the chance that production restarts fully.  That raises supplies and lowers demand.
  • Buyers just keep waiting...forcing producers to send product regardless - manufacturers only have so much storage.  After so much time, they have to ship product.  If this starts happening (vessels of urea arrive though no one purchased and the price didn't make sense), then the market is going to drop.  Huge sign of weakness.
  • Grain prices fall apart (same as January) - even if they stay high enough to warrant urea purchasing, the simple fact of prices falling would put farmers in a bad mood.
Where are the current urea/grain ratio values today
We believe that only looking at the flat price of either grains or fertilizer can be misleading:
  • Only selling grain can hurt you if fertilizer prices rise substantially
  • Only buying fertilizer can hurt you if grain prices fall
We look at the ratio "value" to get a better indication of where we are or how many bushels of X does it take to pay for 1 ton of fertilizer.
Would you rather:
  • Spend 135 bushels to pay for 1 ton of urea
  • Spend 55 bushels to pay for 1 ton of urea
When we compare the current ratio value against recent years, we start to see if we are high or low.
YOUR VALUES WILL LOOK DIFFERENT
This graph looks at the NOLA urea price vs the flat grain price. There are no logistics on either product. Your location will look different due to fertilizer logistical costs, grain basis, etc.
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Josh Linville’s focal points
  • European production levels - the more their natural gas price falls, the more important this becomes.
  • N price spreads pushing demand to urea - urea still looks pretty darn cheap.  If I was farming, it would be a consideration.
  • North American logistics - same POV as it has been in recent months and as detailed above.

All data was sourced from StoneX unless otherwise noted.

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