I will say this now and will say it going forward to eternity: these are the flat price graphs for each individual location. Your price where you are is going to be different. There are logistics. There is the cost of storage/interest/insurance/etc. These graphs should not be taken as "it shows the price at $700, why isn't my price $700". These graphs should be used to give an appreciation for price movements.
All values are in metric tons and USD currency.
Global
There are two things to consider regarding the global phosphate market.
On the one hand, the global S&D is still tight. Chinese exports finished 2024 at just shy of 6.6M tons of DAP/MAP. That is a healthy amount...until you consider that their historic norm is 10M tons. India, the world's largest buyer, started 2025 behind. They were normally start the new year at a comfortable 2M tons in stockpiles. This year they started at 1.2M by some estimates. That creates a fairly tight and supportive fundamental POV.
However, then there is the emotion. Farmers around the world are tired of these high prices. Phosphate values never corrected like nitrogen and potash did after early 2022 high's. They only dropped by half, and then have since pushed higher. They are high vs historical values. They are high vs grain values. There just isn't a great way to look at phosphate and feel good. That has caused buyers to be a little more reluctant and consider lower application rates.
Unfortunately for buyers, fundamentals usually win out if nothing changes and right now, nothing looks like it is going to change near term. There is still plenty of global demand even with prices higher. China doesn't look to come back to normal export form. This should keep values steady to higher over the next couple months.
However, as we start looking to April and beyond, it changes. Suddenly, the long northern hemisphere summer starts to loom large. The thought of carrying inventories with a very high month to month rate starts to factor in. Hopefully we will see later Q2/early Q3 price easement...but do not get too excited. Not much reason for prices to drop hugely.
North America
The global S&D is tight, and so is the N.A. one.
While the fall run was far from normal from a calendar perspective, overall we believe demand was near normal in the end. Better yields in harvest and improving grain prices allowed farmers to afford phosphate. We also know that large yields remove large quantities of phosphate from the soil. Want to grow another big crop next year? Better replace it.
That fall run went fairly far into December...which means less time to replace and refill. Winter isn't that long. It just feels that way.
Then we have to deal with rising demand on an improving corn acreage outlook. We started 2025 at 92M acres. We jumped to 92.5M just before my family and I went to Orlando. I didn't even make it back to the office and that number jumped again to mid-93M acres. There are some estimates it could be in the 95 to 96M range based on seed sales. That seems a bit much to me but the overall story is higher acres and likely will result in higher phosphate demand.
There just isn't much of a reason for prices to fall between now and preplant. Growing demand, a short winter refill period, a lack of imports, and struggling domestic production rates all lend price support.
The very unfortunate thing is that N.A. is not a premium to the world. In fact, we are largely in line with other major buyers in India and Brazil. I guess if we are going to suffer, it is better to suffer with others?
China closes 2024 well behind normal phosphate export levels
We finally have the December 2024 trade data from China...and it certainly didn't help the global phosphate market outlook.
As usual, a bit of backstory to put this into context for those that are new.
Historically, China is the world's largest DAP/MAP exporter with averages around 10M tons per year. That was considered normal as recently as 2021. Then, the 2021/22 cycle happened. Global tension started to come to a head which caused the market to start fearing major exporters like Russia due to their surprise invasion of Ukraine. Exports started to slow as certain nations started taking cautious approaches to sales either due to fear of exporting too much and leaving their own demand begging...or for higher prices. The lid was really lifted with grain values spiking.
During this time, the Chinese government started to become more involved in the fertilizer industry. Their strategy was to lower exports to help domestic farmers. By slowing exports, their own stockpiles grew creating adequate supplies for their own people as well as pushing price ideas lower. This has been especially felt in the urea market but phosphate also took its lumps. Fortunately for Chinese farmers, this strategy has worked. Unfortunately for world farmers, this strategy worked and continues to be used today.
As you can see on the graph below, exports have not stopped but they are down substantially with the last 3-year average being close to 6M. While this may not seem a major event to some, when the world's largest exporter cuts back by 40%, it matters.
2024 did see a bit of a rebound with exports reaching 6.6M tons, but it is still far from normal and that leaves a gaping hole in the global S&D. This is a large reason why global and domestic values continue to stay elevated. As with most things China, we do not have great insight into their decision making. Even when you find something with an inside look, that connection is lost relatively quickly. For now, we are forced to take a reactive approach to the world's largest player. We can hope that their exports return to 10M tons per year and allow prices to go back to normal values...but hope is not a strategy.
What does this mean for farmers?
Unless you are a Chinese farmer reading this, this entire story means your price is higher.
Certain nations have certainly seen their price spike to a major premium from time to time, but that is not the case today. Most buyers price ideas are largely in line. This means everyone is on the same painful boat.
There is always hope that China will come back but we have not seen nor heard anything that gives us reason to believe it will.
India continues to struggle to maintain stockpiles, forced back to market
India has started 2025 in much the same way that it spent a decent part of 2024, behind on stockpiles.
Again, background:
India is the world's largest phosphate buyer and is somewhat unique in their approach. Indian farmers are not subject to global price movements and the government largely regulates imports thru purchase tenders. Since the farmer price can be below the import price, the government sets subsidy rates that are intended to fill the difference so that importers can operate without massive losses.
This approach has worked for a very long time, but obviously recent year price liquidity has made that much more difficult. Later Q2 '24/early Q3 '24, global phosphate values were starting to fall with the anticipation of Chinese exports returning to normal. The Indian government, after a couple years of massive subsidy payments due to high global prices, tried to save a little money. The subsidy was cut below global values in hopes that it would pause demand, cause sellers to have to drop their price to sell, and they would be able to save. This approach worked...for a very short time.
Suddenly, China wasn't coming back. Export restrictions started to get more strict and global values reacted higher. Suddenly, the India strategy wasn't working and they were slow to respond. As a result, imports slowed drastically while domestic demand continued. By the time they started to get ahead of the situation, national stockpiles were nearing dangerously low levels. In the end, they did fix their subsidy and actually sent a contingency to Morocco to purchase a large block of tons to kickstart rebuilding efforts.
With global supplies still very tight, India has continued to stay ahead of this situation. Normally, at the start of the calendar year, 2M tons is considered a comfortable level. For 2025, estimates put their stockpiles at 1.2M tons. Yes, this is a large number of tons to most, but not for a market the size of India.
Because of this and their continued demand domestically, we foresee India as having to continue to play catch up thru Q1 '25. That means in addition to the story above where the global leading exporter continues to scale back supplies, the global leading importer needs to catch up.
That makes for a rough global S&D and plays the other reason global prices are so high.
What does this mean for farmers?
Again, higher prices.
We have already been surprised at the lack of global demand destruction that was expected due to the high price. Now, we have the biggest buyer on the block needing to catch up stockpiles using government money. That makes for a tough situation that is helping to keep prices where they are.
Phosphate/grain ratios remain high, demand doesn't care
Last Q3 and early parts of Q4 of last year, we talked a lot about how we believed there was going to be substantial demand destruction that might finally see phosphate prices tumble into 2025.
Boy was that wrong.
While North America had a very unorthodox fall application season due to early dry conditions, middle wet conditions, and then late perfect conditions, eventually farmers got it done. By the time we reached Christmas, most that wanted to get fall applications done were able to do so and the prevailing feedback was that demand was not changed. There were a couple reasons.
- Grain prices improved which improved cash flows - as we neared harvest, grain prices were terrible and getting worse. Fortunately, we saw price ideas turn around and push higher. Nowhere near the previous type levels, but certainly higher than the worst case situation. This improvement helped improve bank accounts and gave more money to spend on inputs.
- Yields were bigger than expected - this was a surprisingly commonplace discussion point. Everyone was reporting yields being bigger than they thought. That didn't mean that yields were record. It just meant that earlier estimates undershot the final results. Not only did that mean more bushels to market but it also removed more nutrients from the soil. Farmers looking ahead to 2025 realized how tough profitability was going to be. In order to have a chance, yields would need to be maximized again and you cannot maximize yields without sufficient fertilizer in the soil.
In the end, the market finished 2024 much lower on phosphate stockpiles than previously thought. Only January, February and perhaps part of March were standing between the end of fall application and the likely start of spring. Not exactly a long time from a logistical POV.
To make matters worse, U.S. corn acre expectations continue to rise. We started 2025 using a conservative 92M estimate. Not long after, we revised it higher to 92.5M based on market trends and feedback. Not a week later we revised it higher still to 93.5M. That total is still somewhat conservative vs others. There are some speculating 95 to 96M is possible based on a very corn leaning current corn/bean ratio as well as seed company feedback. While that range does seem a stress case scenario, it is certainly in play.
This rising corn acreage estimate, along with some other crop mix changes, means that phosphate demand has been growing with little time to prepare. This does not mean shortages, but it will put the market on edge and have supplies be tight. That could mean higher prices or it could mean longer wait times for resupply to arrive.
Either way, demand has not gone anywhere and appears to be growing at the worst time.
What does this mean for farmers?
This just tightens the S&D and helps support price ideas. If we had seen corn acres lower and had seen demand destruction, it would have hurt demand and could have started to pull price ideas lower.
Unfortunately, that has not been the case and doesn't look to be the case in the coming weeks/months.
Once spring application closes, there is a long time until the next application cycle which will hopefully see things normalize...but that doesn't help us for now.
Canadian concerns grow regarding Trump tariff threats
Many of the concerns that have surrounded President Trump's tariff threats against Canada have been raised by U.S. farmers who are concerned that normal trade flows will be interrupted and prices increased as they are forced to pay.
However, phosphate flips the script in that Canadian farmers should be nervous that their government imposes similar tariffs against U.S. goods. This is due to the fact that Canada relies significantly on U.S. product to meet its demand.
As the chart shows below, the U.S. accounts for almost 80% of every phosphate ton imported. The only reason that Morocco is around 20% is due to an ongoing U.S. tariff against their phosphate which was called for in the summer of 2020 and put into place spring 2021. Since then, Morocco has worked to circumvent normal supply chains that led thru the U.S. and instead have opted to do business direct with Canadian distributors/suppliers/retailers.
Like has been the case with most of these fears, we do not yet know what will happen. As I write this, it remains to be seen if any tariffs will be put into place. If the U.S. presses forward, it isn't guaranteed that Canada will follow with its own tariffs or if those tariffs would be wide ranging or selective. Ultimately, this is a situation that we are needing to watch to see how it plays out so we are prepared if/when it happens.
What does this mean for farmers?
If Canada were to respond with similar wide reaching tariffs in response to U.S. tariffs, phosphate values should rise in Canada. At this point, it is simply too close to spring application season to shift even more demand away from the U.S. and to other global manufacturers. One point to make is that as we commonly say, the phosphate market is relatively small with few major exporting parties. There are already restrictions on Russian fertilizer which is why they have faded from memory. The U.S. is also one of the top 5 exporters. That means that Canada would be forced to rely on the remaining 3...and that hinges on their ability to get it to the retailer/farmer. There is a reason that product flows north from the U.S. It is a harder process to move product east/west in Canada. If that route is removed, it gets very hard and very expensive very quickly.
Ultimately, we do not know how this will all shake out but if you see Canada put tariffs on the U.S., Canadian farmers are likely to pay the price for this coming spring.
NOLA/New Orleans, Louisiana DAP price comparison
Number 5 global exporter in 2022
Price comparisons
Vs 30 days ago - 1% or approximately $3 higher
Vs 90 days ago - 1% or approximately $3 higher
Vs 6 months ago - 9% or approximately $48 higher
Vs 1 year ago - -1% or approximately $7 lower
U.S. Midwest Average (using multiple points across Midwest) price comparison
Vs 30 days ago - 1% or approximately $9 higher
Vs 90 days ago - -2% or approximately $13 lower
Vs 6 months ago - unchanged vs 6 months earlier
Vs 1 year ago - 4% or approximately $25 higher
U.S. Northern Plains Average price comparison
Vs 30 days ago - 1% or approximately $9 higher
Vs 90 days ago - 2% or approximately $11 higher
Vs 6 months ago - 7% or approximately $44 higher
Vs 1 year ago - 3% or approximately $19 higher
U.S. Southern Plains Average price comparison
Vs 30 days ago - 2% or approximately $12 higher
Vs 90 days ago - unchanged vs 3 months earlier
Vs 6 months ago - 5% or approximately $33 higher
Vs 1 year ago - -1% or approximately $10 lower
Morocco DAP price comparison
Number 1 global exporter in 2022
Price comparisons:
Vs 30 days ago - 2% or approximately $12 higher
Vs 90 days ago - -1% or approximately $5 lower
Vs 6 months ago - 2% or approximately $12 higher
Vs 1 year ago - 4% or approximately $24 higher
Black Sea DAP price comparison
Number 3 exporter of DAP/MAP in 2022
Price comparisons:
Vs 30 days ago - unchanged vs last month
Vs 90 days ago - -1% or approximately $8 lower
Vs 6 months ago - 2% or approximately $13 higher
Vs 1 year ago - 5% or approximately $27 higher
India DAP price comparison
Number 1 global importer in 2022
Price comparisons:
Vs 30 days ago - unchanged vs last month
Vs 90 days ago - -2% or approximately $10 lower
Vs 6 months ago - 8% or approximately $46 higher
Vs 1 year ago - 6% or approximately $38 higher
China DAP price comparison
Number 2 global exporter in 2022
Price comparisons:
Vs 30 days ago - 1% or approximately $5 higher
Vs 90 days ago - 2% or approximately $10 higher
Vs 6 months ago - 7% or approximately $43 higher
Vs 1 year ago - 6% or approximately $37 higher
Saudi Arabia DAP price comparison
Number 4 global exporter in 2022
Price comparisons:
Vs 30 days ago - -1% or approximately $6 lower
Vs 90 days ago - -2% or approximately $11 lower
Vs 6 months ago - 8% or approximately $46 higher
Vs 1 year ago - 4% or approximately $24 higher
Brazil DAP price comparison
Number 2 global importer in 2022
Price comparisons
Vs 30 days ago - unchanged vs last month
Vs 90 days ago - unchanged vs 3 months earlier
Vs 6 months ago - unchanged vs 6 months earlier
Vs 1 year ago - 13% or approximately $75 higher
- Chinese exports remain low/go lower – China has historically exported around 10M tons of DAP/MAP per year. That is how many tons they exported back in 2021...however, the world has grown accustomed to their lower levels. 2024 finished with only 6.6M tons. Now, that "feels" decent vs where they have been but is still well short of normal. That is 3+M tons missing from the global S&D which is bad. If the Chinese government starts to restrict exports on phosphate more (similar to urea), then bad goes to worse very quickly.
- Global demand delayed due to high price, hammers the market – farmers around the world are unhappy with phosphate values. They are high. There is no other way to look at it. High prices cause buyers to delay purchases in hopes that something changes...but eventually the calendar forces its hand and the northern hemisphere is getting there quick. Farmers are running out of time and demand is still seen as big. When the wall breaks, there could be a flood of demand that hammers the phosphate market and drives prices higher still.
- N.A. demand continues to rise on growing corn acres/lack of calendar – as mentioned on every product, corn acre forecasts continue to grow. We started 2025 at 92M acres. Before my family and I left for Orlando for vacation, we revised it higher to 92.5M acres. I wasn't gone a week and we moved it to 93.5M acres. Now, there are some saying 95 - 96M acres is a possibility based on the corn/bean ratio as well as feedback from seed companies. Every additional corn acre represents more phosphate demand, and the calendar will not help. There simply is not enough time to boost imports that can arrive and be placed for farmers before planting begins.
- Farmers are forced to cut phosphate due to high price – this does not look likely today, but given how high priced phosphate is, it remains in the realm of possibilities. In relation to grain values, phosphate remains one of the highest priced fertilizer inputs for farmers...and there will be some ground out there with sufficient levels already in place. If we start to see cutbacks in enough areas, it could push the market lower. Doubtful, but it could.
- N.A. operating rates finally improve to historic levels – since the spring of 2021, U.S. phosphate operating (production) rates have been low. This has been for a number of reasons. None have been malicious, just a pattern of bad luck. That means there is still a chance that they return to normal. If that happens, it adds a lot of tons back to the market which could help take some of the stress off the S&D.
- Later March/April forces market to consider carryover to summer – eventually, at some point on the calendar (very late March/April/May), the supply market will stop looking at a tight spring S&D and will start looking at possible summer price resets. While it is doubtful this would happen soon enough to drop retail prices to farmers, it is something to consider.
We believe that only looking at the flat price of either grains or fertilizer can be misleading:
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Only selling grain can hurt you if fertilizer prices rise substantially
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Only buying fertilizer can hurt you if grain prices fall
We look at the ratio "value" to get a better indication of where we are or how many bushels of X does it take to pay for 1 ton of fertilizer.
Would you rather:
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Spend 150 bushels to pay for 1 ton of DAP
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Spend 80 bushels to pay for 1 ton of DAP
When we compare the current ratio value against recent years, we start to see if we are high or low.
YOUR VALUES MAY LOOK DIFFERENT
This graph looks at the NOLA DAP price vs the flat grain price. There are no logistics on either product. Your location will look different due to fertilizer logistical costs, grain basis, etc.
- Chinese exports in 2025 - one of the most popular phosphate talking points of 2024 continues to carry over into 2025. So far, there is still very little expectation that China will return to their former phosphate export glory. In fact, there are still some fearing that further restrictions will be put into place. When you look at Chinese domestic urea values vs global urea values, that strict export approach has worked. Why not implement it on phosphate? What they do or do not do has global ramifications.
- India buying patterns - India is the world's largest DAP and MAP buyer which means what they do or do not do matters. The problem is that their government has been all over the place with their import strategy. They are either too slow to respond to global price movements or overcorrect and miss opportunities. To start 2025, several have estimated that their phosphate stockpiles are close to 1M tons vs a normal and comfortable starting 2M ton level. Their buying patterns have been odd, but the global manufacturers have been using it to their benefit. Possible India gets it figured out, but the last 6+ months would say otherwise.
- Buyers not caring about the high price - it doesn't matter how you look at phosphate, it is high priced. Originally, we truly believed that demand would falter as farmers cut back on application rates. However, things improved and so too did demand. In the end, phosphate is needed to grow a crop. During tough times, farmers need to grow every bushel possible and leaving phosphate levels in the soil deficient does not grow max yields. Unless something changes, it doesn't appear that demand is going away this spring.
StoneX Ratio Calculation
The ratio calculation is derived from Bloomberg historical grains values as well as fertilizer values from StoneX, NPKFAS, and Argus.
The calculation is simply dividing the fertilizer price by each grain price.
All data was sourced from StoneX unless otherwise noted.
