February '26 Farmer Fertilizer Newsletter - Phosphate

February '26 PHOSPHATES

Major global phosphate export location price graphs

I will say this now and will say it going forward to eternity:  these are the flat price graphs for each individual location.  Your price where you are is going to be different.  There are logistics.  There is the cost of storage/interest/insurance/etc.  These graphs should not be taken as "it shows the price at $700,  why isn't my price $700".  These graphs should be used to give an appreciation for price movements.

All values are in metric tons and USD currency.

 

What everyone wants to know first, what do we think will happen going forward

Global

The global phosphate market is a tough place right now.

From the supply POV:

• China is not expected to export again until August.
• Global NH3/sulfur prices remain high which is hitting production levels
• U.S. production continues to be low

From the demand POV:

• Current phosphate values are high enough to likely impact demand
• However, phosphate is still needed to maximize yield potential so demand may not be as low as expected

These are not small things and today, honestly, I'm not sure which factor ends up "winning".  Our belief is that U.S. / N.A. fall phosphate demand was down 20% which was right in line with our expectations.  That should mean that we can expect very similar in the spring around the world, but not likely.  It is much easier for a fall applier to say "I'll drag my feet and wait/hope for lower spring prices".  

My current belief is that as long as Chinese exports remain at bay and production struggles with high input costs, the price we are seeing today is about as low as it gets for a while.  There is a chance that after spring demand concludes that all activity grinds to a halt which could put some pressure on values.  I just do not see it being a major thing with all the supply problems out there.

 

North America

Like the world, supplies are in a bad place.  China is not expected to export again until August at the earliest.  Mosaic shut down their Brazil SSP (single super phosphate) plant due to high input costs.  U.S production costs have skyrocketed and is likely starting to pinch manufacturers who are already struggling with low production rates.  

Then, North America has to worry about U.S. politics.  Fortunately, fertilizers were removed from tariff rates which reopened supplies from Saudi Arabia.  The counter vailing duty rates remain against Morocco/Russia, but those are up for review in the coming months (it has been 5 years since they were put into place, there is a 5 year review).  Not to mention we have now listened to Deputy Agriculture Secretary Vaden discuss the duopoly in the phosphate market.  It is possible that his/their attention could change things quickly.

Today, NOLA phosphate values are largely in line with the rest of the world.  Even if duties and other steps were taken, it is hard to see why N.A. values would fall to a major discount vs the world.  If that happened and there were no export blockades on phosphate, they enough supply would be lost to boost price ideas.  Unfortunately, the current global outlook is steady to firm so NOLA/N.A. should do similar.

However, keep an eye on the politics of this market.  Just because the fundamentals do not change much does not mean that an emotional reaction to removing duties (as an example) would not push prices lower.

 

General Global DAP/MAP Information

 

What has happened in the last 30 days?

Global phosphate market main fear continues to be lack of Chinese exports

I was THIS close to just copying this same story from last month.  Nothing has changed on this story, but it feels crappy to do!!!

As has been discussed before, the current expectation for Chinese phosphate exports is that they will not return until August of this year...so why is that important.

When we go back in time (let's use 2021), China was by far the world's largest DAP/MAP exporter in the world with normal flows being between 8 - 10M tons per year.  The tons flowed out and few thought much of it.

Amazing how quickly things can change.

As 2021 came to a close, the fertilizer world was reeling.  It looked extremely probable that Russia was going to invade Ukraine.  The combination of that event and grain prices that were decently priced helped to start boosting global phosphate values.  Our biggest fear was that the world would stop buying Russian phosphate and it would lead to the loss of the world's 4th largest supplier.  While that ultimately did not happen, the damage was done.

As a result, the Chinese government started to intervene.  They noticed how global values were skyrocketing and inventories were becoming harder to find.  They also realized how many tons they exported as a nation.  Quickly, they came up with a strategy to limit phosphate exports in order to accomplish two goals:

1. Ensure domestic supplies
2. Lower domestic values vs the world

Suddenly, the world could no longer expect that Chinese tons "would just be there".  As exports started to flow, the Chinese government was likely pleased with the results.  Domestic supplies did improve.  Domestic values did stay cheaper than the world.  It was a win for Chinese farmer, and a massive loss for the world.

This program came to a new low in 2025.  Total DAP/MAP exports failed to reach 5.4M.  In fact, from January through May, a meager 184K tons were exported and were a large reason we saw prices spike like they did (also helped that India was a desperate buyer).  A big reason why values corrected during the 2nd half of the calendar was that China started exporting again.

So this is the issue with 2026.  If 2025 values spiked because China didn't export from January until May, what do you think will happen in 2026 if they do not export until August?  To make matters worse, we are not sure if August is really August.  Chinese fertilizer exports have to go through a 60-day CIQ process (Chinese Inspection Quarantine).  It is possible that the government will allow tons to be placed in export facilities in June in order to clear the 60-days and start exporting in August...or they may not allow the "clock" to start until August 1 which would mean no exports until October.

Now, lets be clear.  This is China we are talking about.  Just because they say one thing does not mean that is gospel.  We have seen them pivot before and that could be the case this time around.  There is some small hope that more details will be announced after the Chinese New Year that could help export flows...but we are not holding our breath.

All of this to say that Chinese exports are still a very important watch item.  What China does or does not do will have a big impact on global values.

 

High NH3/rising sulfur pricing pressuring phosphate manufacturers

Extremely high priced NH3 and sulfur markets are starting to pinch phosphate manufacturers and we need to watch for further signs of production impacts.

Yes, you read that right.

Yes, I understand how high priced phosphate is.

Yes, I know that is makes absolutely NO sense that this is a story.

Please know that I did not write this lightly.  You are already here.  I do not need to come up with sensational storylines to get your here.

This is something I am becoming concerned about and watching much more closely.

So what gives?  Right now, NH3 continues to look high priced.  In fact, as I am writing this, the February Tampa price has been announced a full $40 higher than January which is reflecting tight global supplies across a list of issues.  We have also been tracking the sulfur market which has seen prices be on fire in recent weeks.  I will not sit here and write as though I am knowledgeable in that space.  I'm barely smart enough to track fertilizer!!  That said, sulfur prices have been screaming higher and folks I have spoken to struggle with a short-term fix.

We have already seen/heard of one plant that has gone offline because of these costs.  Mosaic was forced to shut down their SSP (single super phosphate) plant in Brazil.  You might be thinking to yourself "I do not care because I do not use SSP".  I get that, but my fear is that whether you use it or not, it affects you.  Those tons not being produced means that phosphate units are being removed from the global S&D.  Those phosphate units need to be replaced in some form or another.  That very well could push the demand to a phosphate type that you do use.

We are now watching U.S. production rates a little more closely, even with current values far too high vs grain prices/historical values/etc.  Production rates have struggled since spring 2021, but have worsened significantly since Q4 '24.  Q4 '24 set an all-time low operating rate for phosphate production at 58% of capacity...but if input values continue to rise without any movement in the market, it is possible to get lower.

Today, we have seen absolutely no indication that any phosphate manufacturer in the U.S. has any plans to slow/stop their production lines.  I write this piece as the first warning.  My hope is that this is a story that we look back on and laugh because it never happened.  However, spring is just around the corner and a lot of farmers still have a lot of phosphate decisions to make.  I realize the desire is there to cut application rates to save some money.  I realize the desire is there to cut application rates in hopes that fall numbers will be lower.  That is always a possibility but with Chinese exports expected to be very low this year, Brazilian SSP production going offline, and now U.S. costs rising dramatically, it seems like lower fall values are a small probability.  

Please choose your spring phosphate approach wisely and unemotionally.

 

Phosphate feels high...because 2026 starts with highest DAP/corn ratio in history

Have phosphate values been worse in relation to grain prices than where we are today?  Yes.

Have we ever started a calendar year with the DAP/Corn ratio as high as it is today?  No

Honestly folks, this one took me by surprise.  I was sitting at my computer updating all the graphs and charts to begin 2026.  Lets just say it is no small task!!!  I know we had ended 2025 on the high side, but when looking at where we were back in August and September, at least it was improved.  However, when I finally got the 2026 lines started, it was shocking given the fact that based on our price history going back to 2005 and I believe in the history of DAP/corn, we have never started a calendar year this high.

I really do not know what more to say regarding this. 

My outlook on phosphate still remains flat to bullish.  Chinese exports are not likely until August or later.  Rising input costs, if they continue, will start to pressure the market out of fear of losing more production.  Spring demand could be better than expectations.  The N.A. fall run was around 20% lower than normal...but spring may not follow that pattern.  Many may have skipped fall and decide to make it up in the spring  It also doesn't help that we are still expecting 90+M acres of corn in 2026.

The flat price of phosphate is very high.

The price of phosphate vs grain values is very high.

I understand the immediate response very well may be to cut rates.  I beg you if you go down that road, make that decision because it is the best fundamental reason.  Please do not let emotion make that call because if my life is any indication, making angry and emotional decisions rarely if ever work out.

 

U.S. CVD review/Ag Deputy Secr. Vaden comments put phosphate back in crosshairs

U.S. phosphate markets have been getting a lot of attention lately, and not just due to the high price.

First, U.S. counter vailing duty rates against Moroccan and Russian phosphate imports are up for a sunset review this spring.  While the rates were requested during the summer of 2020, they did not go into effect until spring 2021 with a scheduled review in 5 years.  Well, that is just around the corner.

It is far too early to know what will happen with the review.  They may increase the rates.  They may reduce the rates.  They may do away with them all together.  Personally, for the sake of every North American farmer, I hope that they review the case and decide to remove them completely.  The phosphate world is vastly different than it was in 2020.  Back then, supplies remained plentiful.  U.S. operating rates were still strong.  China was still exporting normal amounts.  If all things had remained the same, the duties would not have had such an impact.  However, we know things DID change.  China started cutting back on their exports.  Operating rates here at home started to fall drastically.  The easiest thing to track is pricing.  During the summer of 2020, NOLA DAP values dipped down to $250/ton.  At their recent highs in 2025, they eclipsed $800/ton.  

Hopefully this is something that we will get reviewed and be able to celebrate.  However, word of warning.  A complete removal does not change the global S&D with all its problems.  If U.S. values were to plunge vs the world, then we could start seeing exports happen as traders take advantage of arbitrage opportunities.  That alone would force domestic values back in line with the world.

We also listened to commentary by Agriculture Deputy Secretary Vaden who called out the phosphate (and potash) duopoly market.  As of this writing, his statements were only that: statements.  However, this shows that the Trump administration has heard the plea of U.S. farmers.  My hopes are that with a sunset review already in place, the Trump administration may be able to guide that review to an end result that ends with free import markets once again.

Unfortunately, all we can do today is sit back and wait to see what (if anything) happens.

 

Where are current values in relation to the past

NOLA/New Orleans, Louisiana DAP price comparison

Number 5 global exporter in 2024

 

Bull/Bear Factors

Because no market is ever guaranteed to go higher/lower, we try to consider the factors that can sway values so that we are able to act when they occur rather than react.

• Bullish Factors
• China holds true to their "no exports until August" approach – this is my biggest worry.  Today, the market expectation is that China will not allow phosphate exports until August.  If that is real, that means that a global market largely controlled by 5 countries will see its largest historical supplier non-existent until the 2^nd half of the year.  Anything could happen, but it is hard to see prices falling in that scenario.
• Spring demand spikes following lower fall demand/higher acres – this, I am afraid, is a real possibility.  We know the 2025 yield was very good.  Is it USDA report good?  I have no earthly idea, but it was solid. That means a lot of phosphate nutrients were removed from the soil.  2026 is still looking at very healthy crop mixes for phosphate demand.  I know there will be demand destruction.  I absolutely understand that…but it may not be enough. 
• Global production continues to suffer due to high NH3/sulfur prices – this story has quickly become a talking point.  Who would have thought at these phosphate values we would need to worry about production not having high enough margins.  However, that is where we are.  Sulfur prices are skyrocketing around the world.  NH3 values are extremely high.  We have already seen Mosaic stop production at their SSP plant in Brazil.  If that story starts to expand to other areas/facilities, watch out.

• Bearish Factors
• Spring demand looks at lower fall demand and says "hold my beer" – 2026 has begun with the highest calendar year starting phosphate/corn ratio in history.  Farmers had a tough 2025.  2026 looks like it could be just as bad…or worse.  Demand looks like it should be there.  Enough to boost prices…but I will NEVER underestimate farmers ability to cut.  With finances as they are, we could easily see demand much lower and prices fall as a result.
• Poor February/March weather force farmers to skip applications – the first bearish factor pointed to farmers making the decision to not apply.  This one points to the farmer not having a say.  February looks like it is cooked in terms of weather improving and allowing farmers to apply.  What if this winter weather pattern continues well into March?  There have been seasons where Mother Nature said no.  If that is what she says this round, inventories do not move and everyone becomes a seller.
• China can always change their mind – while this does not look likely today, never say never with them.  Their Chinese New Year is coming in a couple weeks.  If they come out of that holiday and decide “we have plenty of supplies vs demand, we will allow exports”, you would very likely see this market bleed price to get out of positions before their tons hit the market.

 

Where are the current phosphate/grain ratio values today?

• Josh Linville’s Focal Points
• China's 2026 phosphate export program - for me, everything hinges on China.  They are historically the world's largest supplier.  It used to not be a close 2nd...that is no longer the case.  We finally have 2025 calendar year totals and they surprised me by exporting over 5M tons (thought it would be closer to 4.5M).  However, that is where the good news stops.  Today, we believe China will not export sizeable phosphate tons until August if they are to be believed.  Worse, if they will not count product quarantine days until August, we may not see sizeable exports until October.  In 2025, they didn't export anything of size until June and look what happened.  The world of phosphate should be watching any and every China move.
• Global tariffs/duties/etc. - I'm going to throw this here because of all the threats being thrown around.  President Trump has tried putting tariffs on most of the world.  The world is now responding to his threats of taking Greenland.  I do not know what is real and what is not.  What I do know is that global phosphate supplies are tight without China participating.  That means that any country that puts trade blockades on countries that export phosphate are probably going to pay the higher price.  If you find your country threatening tariffs/duties/etc. against any of the top 5 on the chart way above, watch out.  Your prices are probably moving higher pretty soon.
• Spring demand following a lower than normal fall demand - it sounds like North American fall phosphate demand was down about 20% from normal.  That is right in range with what we though it would be (was thinking 15 - 25% and honestly, was leaning to the lower end).  Farmers have spoken against high phosphate values...but can they continue to say that?  2025 yields were quite large which means a lot of nutrients were pulled from the soil.  2026 numbers are not strong so many farmers best chance to break even will be maximizing yields...but that cannot be done if phosphate levels are deficient.  Everyone needs to make their own decision of what is right and wrong.  I do not know your operations well enough to tell you.  It will just be interesting how the spring plays out.
• Farmer reaction to still to high phosphate prices vs crap grain values - this ties into the previous focal point, but I wanted to touch on it.  When we look at the current DAP/corn ratio chart, the current values starting 2026 are much improved vs the high's of August/September 2025...but therein lies the problem.  We are comparing today against one of the worst times in history.  Not recent history.  HISTORY.  You all feel that.  I know you do.  You feel it in your bones.  The previous point approaches it from a fundamental/unemotional POV.  That does not always work.  In crap times like this, it rarely works.  Will farmers reduce their phosphate purchases/application rates out of spite?  It could have an impact.

StoneX Ratio Calculation

The ratio calculation is derived from Bloomberg historical grains values as well as fertilizer values from StoneX, NPKFAS, and Argus.

The calculation is simply dividing the fertilizer price by each grain price.

All data was sourced from StoneX unless otherwise noted.