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Financial Markets Morning Commentary
By: Tom Pawlicki, Senior Specialist, Market Intelligence
Economic
- 10-year futures are -6/32. Yields are +3.35 bps at 4.347%. S&P futures are +8.00. Progress in the Iran conflict has been mixed over the weekend, with President Trump making an expletive-laden post yesterday demanding the Strait of Hormuz to be reopened or Iran would face annihilation. He also pushed back the Monday evening deadline for strikes on Iran’s power infrastructure and bridges to Tuesday evening. Overnight, there is said to be progress on a potential peace deal being pushed by Pakistan. Additionally, the number of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz finally started to increase on Friday. Nine vessels moved through the strait on Friday, including three oil tankers. Three moved through on Saturday, including one oil tanker, while seven transited on Sunday including six oil tankers.
- President Trump will hold a press conference in the oval office today at 12 pm CDT. Economic data this week include the ISM non-MFG PMI later this morning, durable goods orders on Tuesday, PCE prices, final Q4 GDP and jobless claims on Thursday, and CPI and Michigan sentiment on Friday.
- (Reuters) US nonfarm payrolls announced on the Good Friday holiday were +178K vs. +60K expected and -133K previously (revised from -92K). The unemployment rate was 4.3% vs. 4.4% expected and 4.4% previously. The labor force participation rate was 61.9% vs. 62.0% previously while the U6 rate of underemployment was 8.0% vs. 7.9% previously.
- (Reuters) President Donald Trump ordered 100% tariffs on certain branded pharmaceutical imports and overhauled steel, aluminum and copper duties on Thursday as his administration sought to move on from the collapse of the broad global tariffs he announced exactly one year ago. In a new proclamation revealing the results of a long-awaited national security investigation into pharmaceutical imports, Trump said foreign manufacturers of patented products must agree to make deals with the U.S. government to cut prescription-drug prices and commit to moving production to the United States.
- (Reuters) JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned on Monday that the war in Iran risks oil and commodity price shocks that could keep inflation sticky and push interest rates higher than the market now expects. The warning came in an annual letter to shareholders a day after U.S. President Donald Trump ratcheted up pressure on Iran, threatening to target its power plants and bridges on Tuesday if it does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway.
- (Bloomberg) Chemical firms Dow and LyondellBasell are lower as oil prices pull back and BofA downgrades the stocks as it sees the market tailwinds from the Iran war as unsustainable.
- (Bloomberg) Carvana falls 2.2% as BofA Global Research downgrades the online used-car retailer to neutral from buy citing recent macro and industry developments.
- (Bloomberg) Rocket Cos. advances 1.6% after Barclays raised their recommendations to overweight from equal-weight following recent shares decline.
- (Reuters) The Bank of Japan said surging oil costs and supply disruptions brought about by the Middle East conflict could hurt the economy, signaling caution over downside risks to growth that may prod it to tread cautiously in raising interest rates. The assessment, made in a report based on findings from the bank's regional branches, contrasted with the board's hawkish debate focusing on inflationary risks from the war, highlighting uncertainty on whether the BOJ could raise rates this month.
- (Reuters) Goldman Sachs has pared its growth estimate for India for 2026, while forecasting a 50 basis points hike in policy rates as the South Asian economy contends with sharp depreciation in its currency. Goldman forecasts the Indian economy will grow by 5.9% in calendar year 2026 compared to its pre-Iran war forecast of 7%, it said in a report on Tuesday. The Wall Street bank had cut its growth forecast for the South Asian economy to 6.5% on March 13.
Geopolitical
- (Bloomberg) President Trump on Sunday issued an expletive-laced threat to destroy Iran’s power plants and blow up “everything over there,” before announcing what appeared to be a new Tuesday 8 p.m. deadline, without offering details. The move adds to a series of extensions since he began issuing similar ultimatums on March 21 to force Iran to reopen the strategic waterway.
- (Bloomberg) Axios reported that Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey are pushing to secure a potential ceasefire — lasting about 45 days — to head off threatened US strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure and retaliation by the Islamic Republic against countries in the region. Fighting continued, with Israel, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates reporting Iranian attacks overnight into Monday.
- (Reuters) Earlier on Monday, a senior Iranian official told Reuters that Iran won't reopen the Strait as part of a temporary ceasefire, nor would it accept deadlines or pressure to reach a deal. Washington was not ready for a permanent ceasefire, the official said.
- (Reuters) In at least seven Sunday interviews, Trump continued his threats against Iran as he pushed for concessions. He told Fox News that Iran is negotiating and that a deal is possible on Monday, but if not, he will "take" the country's oil. In an interview with ABC News, Trump said the conflict should be over in days, not weeks, but if not, "we're blowing up the whole country" and there is "very little" off the table.
- (Reuters) Russia launched a drone attack on Ukraine's Black Sea port of Odesa overnight on Monday, killing three people, including a child, and damaging infrastructure, residential and administrative buildings, the regional governor said.
- (Reuters) A cargo ship carrying wheat sank in the Sea of Azov after coming under attack from Ukrainian drones, a Russia-installed official said on Sunday, leaving one person dead and two missing.
- (Reuters) The Ukrainian military struck a Russian warship in the port of Novorossiysk as well as a drilling rig in the Black Sea near occupied Crimea overnight, Kyiv's drone forces commander said. The attack targeted the Admiral Makarov missile carrier.
- (Reuters) Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban called an emergency defense council meeting on Sunday after powerful explosives were found near a pipeline in Serbia that carries Russian gas to the country. The incident prompted political scrutiny in Hungary at a sensitive time days before a national election, with Orban's party trailing in opinion polls.
Energy
- WTI is -$1.13/bbl at $110.41/bbl, while Brent is -$0.44/bbl at $108.59/bbl. Natural gas is +$0.042/MMBtu at $2.842/MMBtu.
- (Reuters) OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to raise its oil output quotas by 206,000 barrels per day for May, a modest rise that will largely exist on paper as its key members are unable to raise production due to the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. A separate OPEC+ panel that also met on Sunday, called the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, expressed concern about attacks on energy assets, saying they were expensive and time-consuming to repair and so have an impact on supply, OPEC+ said in a statement.
- (Reuters) Spot premiums for U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude have jumped to all-time highs as competition between Asian and European refiners for supply heats up to replace Middle Eastern oil flows disrupted by the Iran war, industry sources said.
- (Reuters) Saudi Arabia has set the official selling price of May Arab Light crude oil to Asia at a record premium of $19.50 a barrel above the Oman/Dubai average, an increase of $17 from the previous month, Saudi Aramco said on Monday.
- (Reuters) Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya joint military command said Iraq would be exempt from any restrictions on transit through the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian media reported on Saturday, signaling preferential treatment for Baghdad as Tehran tightens control over the strategic waterway.
- (Bloomberg) A Suezmax oil tanker hauling about 1 million barrels of Iraqi crude exited the Persian Gulf via a northerly route through Iranian waters on Sunday morning, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. The Ocean Thunder crossed the Strait of Hormuz after Iran exempted its “brotherly” neighbor from shipping restrictions a day earlier.
- (Bloomberg) Fifteen ships have passed through the Strait of Hormuz with Iran’s permission in the past 24 hours, the semi-official Fars news agency reported, adding that’s still about 90% lower than before the start of the conflict. It didn’t elaborate on the ownership or destination of the vessels.
- (Reuters) Two vessels loaded with liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Ras Laffan, Qatar, turned back after they moved eastward towards the Strait of Hormuz, ship-tracking data showed on Monday.
- (Reuters) Israel struck Iran's largest petrochemical complex at Asaluyeh on Monday, defense minister Israel Katz said, in what he described as a severe economic blow to Tehran.
- (Reuters) Russia's key Baltic port of Ust-Luga resumed crude loading after days of disruptions amid multiple Ukrainian drone attacks in the region, Bloomberg News reported on Sunday.
- (Reuters) Money managers cut their combined futures and options position in New York and London by 23,898 contracts to 103,707 during the period.
Metals
- Gold (April) is +$17.20/oz, trading at $4,696.90/oz, while silver (May) is +$0.476/oz at $73.40/oz.
- The dollar index is -0.067 points at 99.961.
- Interest Rates
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