Financial Markets Morning Commentary

By: Tom Pawlicki, Senior Specialist, Market Intelligence

Thu, 16 Apr 2026, 12:59

Economic

10-year futures are +1/32. Yields are -0.25 bps at 4.282%. S&P futures are +9.00. Markets have the feel of a completely normal and quiet overnight session in spite of the lingering effects of the oil price shock of the past six weeks. A second Iran-sanctioned vessel moved through the Strait of Hormuz yesterday, but there are reports that US-Iran discussions will ramp up again according to Pakistani mediators. It was reported yesterday that the two-week ceasefire may be extended another two weeks. The Philadelphia Fed and jobless claims were both strong this morning.
Preliminary data show that seven vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz yesterday, including a sanctioned VLCC named RHN.
Only industrial production later this morning is the last of the economic data this week. Earnings are due from Netflix later today.
(Reuters) Initial jobless claims were 207K vs. 215K expected and 218K previously. Continuing claims were 1.818 mln vs. 1.810 mln expected and 1.787 mln previously (revised from 1.794 mln).
(Reuters) The Philadelphia Fed business index was 26.7 in April vs. 10.0 expected and 18.1 previously. Prices paid were 59.3 vs. 44.7 while employment was -5.1 vs. +0.8.
(Reuters) Strong forecasts from ASML and TSMC this week point to another quarter of hefty spending by American cloud-computing giants as they race to secure advanced chips needed for their artificial intelligence build-outs. The results suggest that demand stayed strong for AI chip designers such as Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices and Broadcom, all of which rely on TSMC, the world's dominant producer of cutting-edge processors.
(Reuters) St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said on Wednesday that high oil prices are likely to keep underlying inflation nearly a percentage point above the Federal Reserve's 2% target for the rest of this year, with the U.S. central bank likely needing to leave interest rates unchanged. "It's likely we're going to see some pass-through of oil prices onto core inflation," with that underlying measure of price increases ending the year "a shade below 3, maybe around 3" percent, versus the Fed's 2% target, Musalem said in a Reuters interview, with risks that it could even be higher.
(Reuters) The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission late on Tuesday approved a proposal to remove restrictions that limited accounts under $25,000 to three day trades - defined as the buying and selling of the same security within the same trading day - within five business days, known as the "pattern day trader" rule. The decision was a win for brokerage firms like Webull and Robinhood and retail traders who now have a much greater ability to buy and sell frequently.
(Reuters) PepsiCo's price cuts for salty snacks in the U.S. and steady demand for diet sodas helped it beat Wall Street estimates, providing a buffer against growing macroeconomic uncertainty. PepsiCo expects organic revenue to increase between 2% and 4% and core constant currency earnings per share to grow 4% to 6%, reaffirming its annual targets for a second time this year. The company said first-quarter revenue rose 8.5% to $19.44 billion, compared with estimates of $18.94 billion, according to data compiled by LSEG. Its quarterly adjusted earnings per share of $1.61 also handily beat estimates of $1.55.
(Reuters) Chinese Q1 GDP was 5.0% y/y, which was at the top end of China’s target range of 4.5%-5.0% It beat estimates of 4.8% and rose from 4.5% previously.
(Reuters) Chinese industrial output was +5.7% y/y in March vs. +5.5% expected and +6.3% previously.
(Reuters) Chinese retail sales were +1.7% y/y in March vs. +2.3% expected and +2.8% previously.
(Reuters) Eurozone final HICP was +2.6% y/y in March vs. +2.5% expected and +2.5% initially.
(Reuters) European lenders are resilient enough to absorb current financial and geopolitical shocks but need to prepare for future uncertainties including cybersecurity risks from AI, François-Louis Michaud, the new head of the European Banking Authority, said. Banks' ability to absorb big shocks has come into focus as financial markets come under strain from the U.S. and Israeli war on Iran. The European Central Bank last month warned that markets were underpricing the stress on the financial system coming from geopolitical risks, which have become the number one concern for central banks.

Geopolitical

(Reuters) Optimism grew on Thursday that the Iran war may be near an end, with a key Pakistani mediator having made a breakthrough on "sticky issues", a source said, although Iran warned the fate of its nuclear program had not been resolved.
(Reuters) President Donald Trump said Lebanese and Israeli leaders will speak for the first time in decades on Thursday, while Pakistan said peace in Lebanon was essential for talks it is mediating between Washington and Tehran on ending the Iran war.
(Reuters) A second U.S.-sanctioned supertanker has entered the Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz, shipping data showed, despite a U.S. blockade on vessels visiting Iranian ports. The empty Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) RHN entered the Gulf on Wednesday with no destination yet declared. The tanker's entry into the Gulf comes a day after U.S.-sanctioned VLCC Alicia passed through the Strait of Hormuz. The Alicia is heading to Iraq.
(Reuters) Iran could consider allowing ships to sail freely through the Oman side of the Strait of Hormuz without risk of attack as part of proposals it has offered in negotiations with the United States if a deal is clinched to prevent renewed conflict, a source briefed by Tehran said. But the source added that the proposal hinged on whether Washington was prepared to meet Tehran's demands, a condition that was central to any potential breakthrough with the Strait of Hormuz.
(Reuters) US military forces have widened their shipping blockade on Iran to include cargoes deemed contraband and any vessels suspected of trying to reach Iranian territory will be "subject to belligerent right to visit and search", the U.S. navy said in an advisory on Thursday.
(Reuters) The United States will not be renewing the waivers that allowed purchase of some Iranian and Russian oil without facing U.S. sanctions, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters on Wednesday.
(Reuters) Russia has learned how to minimize the impact of sanctions, the Kremlin said on Thursday, after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the United States would not be renewing a waiver that allowed people to buy some Russian oil without facing U.S. sanctions.
(Reuters) Russia unleashed its deadliest attack so far this year on the Ukrainian capital Kyiv and other cities overnight, killing at least 17 people, including a 12-year-old child, and wounding scores, in drone and missile strikes, officials said on Thursday. In Russia, a major Ukrainian drone attack on the Black Sea port of Tuapse killed two people, including a 14-year-old girl, injured seven, and sparked a large fire, Russian officials and media reported. Two oil depots were struck.
(Reuters) Russian overnight missile and drone attacks killed six people and injured 11 more in Ukraine's southern city of Odesa, the head of the local military administration said on Thursday.
(Reuters) Russian investigators said on Thursday that Ukrainian drones had struck a Liberia-flagged oil tanker in the Black Sea and that its captain, a Turkish national, had been hospitalized with injuries.
(Bloomberg) Russia may start rebuilding its sovereign wealth fund as soon as next month from windfall oil gains following the surge in crude prices over the Middle East war. The Finance Ministry plans to channel excess revenue into the National Wellbeing Fund above the $59-a-barrel cutoff under its budget rule from May, helping to replenish reserves drained by spending on the war in Ukraine, according to people familiar with the discussions.

Energy

WTI is +$0.72/bbl at $92.01/bbl, while Brent is +$1.22/bbl at $96.15/bbl. Natural gas is unchanged at $2.61/MMBtu.
(Reuters) The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission is examining a series of trades in oil futures placed shortly before major shifts in President Donald Trump's Iran war policy, a person familiar with the matter said on Wednesday. The CFTC probe is focused on trading of oil futures contracts on platforms belonging to CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange, with investigators examining at least two instances of oil trades made on March 23 and April 7, the source said.

Metals

Gold is +$14.10/oz, trading at $4,837.70/oz, while silver is -$0.323/oz at $79.305/oz.
The dollar index is +0.158 points at 98.213.
(Reuters) The silver market is heading for a sixth year of structural deficit, with 762 million troy ounces drawn from stocks since 2021, raising the risk of a renewed liquidity squeeze despite weaker demand expectations, the Silver Institute and consultancy Metals Focus said on Wednesday. "Lease rates in London have largely normalized, but risks of another liquidity squeeze this year remain," said Philip Newman, managing director at Metals Focus, which prepared the research for the Silver Institute industry association. The global silver market deficit is expected to widen to 46.3 million ounces in 2026 from 40.3 million in 2025, even as total demand falls 2% due to weaker industrial and jewelry consumption, partly offset by stronger coin and bar demand, the research showed.

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