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Financial Markets Morning Commentary

By: Tom Pawlicki, Senior Specialist, Market Intelligence

Economic

  • 10-year futures are -5/32. Yields are +1.80 bps at 4.262%. S&P futures are -30.00.
  • Iran re-closed the Strait of Hormuz midday on Saturday (local time zones), after it said that the US had violated the agreement by continuing its blockade of Iranian ports. President Trump said that Iran got a “little cute” by closing the strait again, but added that there were still “very good conversations” going on. On Sunday, the US seized an Iranian cargo ship, and President Trump said that if Iran does not take the peace deal, the US would knock out “every single power plant and every single bridge in Iran.” The two-week ceasefire started on April 8 and is due to expire on Wednesday. Negotiations are set to take place in Islamabad this evening with VP Vance. Preliminary data on Strait of Hormuz transits shows 24 crossed on Saturday before it was shut down again, two on Sunday and six today. The Trump administration renewed a waiver on Russian oil sales late on Friday, just two days after saying that it would not issue an extension.
  • On the calendar this week, retail sales data will be released tomorrow, while Fed Chairman nominee Kevin Warsh will face a Senate confirmation hearing. Thursday will feature weekly jobless claims while Friday will see the final Michigan sentiment numbers. Earnings this week include Halliburton and United Airlines on Tuesday, Tesla, IBM and Boeing on Wednesday, Intel and American Express on Thursday, and Procter & Gamble on Friday.
  • (Reuters) Major Asian airlines have reported surging demand on European routes as travelers shun disrupted Middle Eastern hubs, in a shift analysts suggest could persist for some time even after the Iran conflict ends.
  • (Reuters) Fitch Ratings revised its outlook on the Philippines’ credit rating to negative from stable, saying the decline in public investment has created risks to economic growth.

Geopolitical

  • (Reuters) A ceasefire between the United States and Iran appeared in jeopardy on Monday after the U.S. said it had seized an Iranian cargo ship that tried to run its blockade and Tehran vowed to retaliate, refusing for now to join new peace talks. A senior Iranian source told Reuters the continuation of the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports was undermining the prospect of peace talks, and Tehran's "defensive capabilities", including its missile program, were not open to negotiation.
  • (Reuters) Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained at a virtual standstill on Monday with just three crossings in the space of 12 hours, according to shipping data. The oil products tanker Nero, which is under British sanctions for Russian oil activities, left the Gulf and was sailing through the Strait, according to satellite analysis. Two other ships - a chemical tanker and an LPG tanker - sailed into the Gulf through the critical waterway separately on Monday, the data showed. The LPG tanker, Axon I, was under separate U.S. sanctions for Iran trading activities.
  • (Reuters) Ukraine's military hit a drone manufacturing plant in the city of Taganrog in Russia's Rostov region overnight, the military said on Sunday.
  • (Reuters) A Ukrainian drone attack on Russia's Black Sea port of Tuapse sparked a fire and killed at least one person, Russian officials said on Monday, only hours after a blaze was extinguished following a similar attack on April 16.
  • (Reuters) Pro-Russian former President Rumen Radev has won Bulgaria's election by a landslide, official results showed on Monday, sidelining long-dominant political forces and potentially pushing the EU and NATO member state closer to Moscow.

Energy

  • WTI is +$4.53/bbl at $87.12/bbl, while Brent is +$4.58/bbl at $94.96/bbl. Natural gas is +$0.047/MMBtu at $2.721/MMBtu.
  • (Reuters) The Trump administration on Friday renewed a waiver allowing countries to buy sanctioned Russian oil at sea for about a month, even as lawmakers accused the government of going easy on Moscow as its war on Ukraine grinds on. The Treasury Department's waiver lets countries purchase Russian oil and petroleum products loaded on vessels as of Friday through May 16. It replaces a 30-day waiver that expired on April 11 and excludes transactions involving Iran, Cuba and North Korea. Just two days earlier, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Washington would not be renewing the waiver for Russian oil and another for Iranian oil.
  • (Reuters) The U.S. Department of Energy said on Friday it had loaned 26.03 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to nine oil companies, the third allotment under the Trump administration's effort to curb fuel prices that have surged since the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. The Trump administration agreed in March to release 172 million barrels from the SPR in a coordinated move with the International Energy Agency to draw down 400 million barrels in an effort to control fuel prices that spiked due to the war. The U.S. has so far offered 126 million barrels in three batches in the form of loans from the SPR, with energy companies required to pay back the crude with extra barrels as interest. Energy companies have signed deals to borrow nearly 80 million barrels, or more than 63% of what the administration offered.
  • (Bloomberg) The European Union will propose measures to “optimize” jet fuel distribution among member states and help source alternative supplies.
  • (Reuters) U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on Sunday he believes gas prices have peaked but predicted that they may stay above $3 per gallon until next year. Gas prices have risen during the U.S. and Israeli war on Iran and Iranian attacks on nearby countries, creating political headwinds for President Donald Trump ahead of the November midterm elections, where his Republican Party will defend slim majorities in the Senate and House of Representatives.
  • (Reuters) The contract governing natural gas flows from Iran to Turkey is due to expire in the coming months, and the two countries could hold discussions on a possible extension, although no negotiations are under way at present, Turkey's Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said on Saturday. Speaking to reporters on the sidelines of a diplomacy forum in the southern Turkish province of Antalya, Bayraktar said that Ankara was looking to diversify gas supplies, including Russian LNG.
  • (Reuters) Goldman Sachs said softer oil demand and easing supply disruptions have balanced out the risks in its oil price outlook, though it kept its 2026 average forecasts unchanged. The bank maintained its Brent and WTI crude forecasts for 2026 at $83 a barrel and $78 a barrel, respectively, assuming oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

Metals

  • Gold is -$47.70/oz, trading at $4,831.90/oz, while silver is -$2.107/oz at $79.735/oz.
  • The dollar index is +0.203 points at 98.301.
  • (Reuters) Gold prices fell on Monday owing to a stronger U.S. dollar and renewed inflation fears after another closure of the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices higher.
  • (Reuters) Copper lost ground on Monday as the Strait of Hormuz closed to marine traffic once more and a fragile ceasefire between Iran and the United States looked in jeopardy, reigniting fears over economic growth.
  • (Reuters) China's exports of rare-earth magnets in March slipped 1.6% from a year earlier but climbed 10.5% month-on-month, customs data showed. Outbound shipments from China, the world's largest producer of rare-earth magnets, were 5,238 metric tons last month, data from the General Administration of Customs showed.
  • Interest Rates

This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.


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