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First look 1/23

By: PJ Quaid, Senior VP, Agricultural Commodities

first look 1/23

Today is LTD for Feb grain options.

 

China’s decision to set the yuan’s daily fixing stronger than 7 per dollar for the first time since 2023 projects confidence and control, signaling that policymakers are willing to actively defend currency stability. The move underscores Beijing’s intent to anchor market expectations, curb capital outflows, and reinforce financial credibility despite uneven growth and ongoing trade tensions. Rather than chasing short-term stimulus, China is emphasizing stability, discipline, and policy resolve—sending a clear message to domestic and global markets that excessive currency weakness will not be tolerated.

 

U.S. economic data showed inflation largely steady and in line with expectations, with both headline and core PCE prices rising 0.2% month over month in October and November, while year-over-year PCE inflation held near 2.7–2.8%. Core PCE inflation eased slightly on a year-over-year basis in October before firming again, remaining within recent ranges. Consumer activity stayed solid, with personal spending up 0.5% in both October and November, while income growth was softer, especially in October. Third-quarter GDP was revised slightly higher, with real GDP growth at a strong 4.4% annualized pace, supported by solid consumer spending, firmer prices, and a notable rebound in corporate profits. Labor market data remained firm, as initial jobless claims came in below expectations and continuing claims edged lower, signaling continued resilience in employment conditions.

 

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi is scheduled to speak with Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, expressing optimism after reviewing strong momentum in the India–Brazil trade partnership. That optimism is not surprising given that both countries are members of BRICS.

China’s President Xi Jinping said China is seeking deeper cooperation with Brazil and framed China’s economic progress as creating new partnership opportunities, according to Xinhua. In comments to Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Xi emphasized closer ties around the Global South and international governance themes, while positioning China as a reliable partner for Latin America and the Caribbean. The remarks reflect growing China–Brazil alignment within BRICS and underscore Beijing’s push to expand trade and diplomatic relationships broadly, at a time when meaningful progress in U.S.–China relations remains limited.

 

The US House approved a package of FY26 appropriations bills, marking a significant step toward preventing a partial government shutdown ahead of the January 31 deadline. The vote advances funding for multiple federal agencies and shifts the focus to the Senate, where lawmakers must now clear the legislation before the current funding authority expires. While Senate passage is not guaranteed and amendments remain possible, the House action reduces near-term shutdown risk and provides momentum for negotiators, signaling that congressional leaders are prioritizing continuity of government operations amid tight fiscal timelines and political divisions.

 

US President Trump said that Chinese President Xi is expected to visit the United States toward the end of the year.

Outside MarketsPriceChange % Change 
Dow                      49,460             (98.00)-0.20 
Crude                         60.42                  1.061.79 
US Dollar                    98.1500             (0.026)-0.03 
Gold                  4,935.88             (0.140)0.00 
US 2/10 Swap                    62.2600          (1.4350)- 
VIX                         15.99                  0.35- 
     
CBOT Ags Volume & Open Interest   
 Previous VolumeChange in OIOptions Volume Change in Options OI 
Corn                     288,923             22,807                     45,451                                       8,346
SRW                      93,707                3,109                     19,526                                       6,760
HRW                      51,954                4,292                                -                                         1,954
Soybeans                    256,462             (5,136)                     53,367                                    14,389
Meal                    185,820                3,192                     28,091                                       8,100
Oil                    182,952                1,743                     21,717                                       2,266
Feeders                      16,969                    607                       3,089                                           587
Live Cattle                      46,108                1,817                     10,949                                       1,582
Hogs                      63,955                4,553                     25,684                                       4,950
     

Overnight options activity 

Corn

S 100 h 430p/450c strangles 17 3/4

B 400 h 460 c 1/2

B 400 h 480 c 3/8 

B 200 h 440 c 1 ½ vs 423 1/2

 

Soymeal

B 500 h 310 c 2.15 to 2.25

 

Bean oil

B 100 h 52/50 ps .440

 

Wheat

B 100 h 550 c 3 1/2

S 100 h 530 c 8

 

Open interest changes

Corn

July 500 call buy and march 425/435/445 call fly buys were new....may 400 put buys were closing 

 

Beans

March 1080 call sale, april 1100 call sale and march 1100 call buys were new

 

Soymeal

March 300/315 call spread buy and march 290 put buys were new....march 320 call buy was closing 

 

Bean oil

March 52 put buy and march 55 call buys were new

 

Wheat

March 540 call buy was new...march 500 put buy was closing

 

Kc wheat

July 520p/560c strangle buys were new

 

Lean hogs 

June 110 call buy was new

 

Live cattle

April 240 call buy was closing 

 

Cvol

Ags 17.12% up .06%

Corn 14.91% up .05%

Beans 13.25% down .64% (1 year low)

Soymeal 21.51% up 2.82% (1 month high)

Bean oil 28.03% down .65%

Wheat 22.54% up 1.88%

Feeder cattle 17.85% down .07% (3 month low)

Live cattle 15.95% up .36%

Lean hogs 19.44% .21%

Class 3 milk 15.79% down .54%

corn

image-20260123063837-1

beans

image-20260123063859-2

soymeal

image-20260123063933-4

bean oil

image-20260123063957-5

wheat

image-20260123064028-6

kc wheat

image-20260123064051-7

miax wheat

image-20260123064111-8

oats

image-20260123064134-9

rough rice

image-20260123064155-10

crush

image-20260123064220-11

feeder cattle 

image-20260123064246-12

live cattle 

image-20260123064325-13

lean hogs

image-20260123064347-14

 

sources

news bloomberg
options data globex

charts bloomberg

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