CoffeeNetwork (New York) - Importers, roasters, and traders in both the United States and Europe are beginning to receive new shipments from Honduras, Guatemala, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua. After a prolonged period of tight availability for many washed arabica origins, market participants are watching closely to see whether fresh arrivals can relieve pressure on physical supplies and soften differentials that have remained historically elevated throughout much of the past year.
The timing is significant. While Brazil's harvest has been slower than expected and producer selling remains measured, buyers are increasingly looking toward Central America to replenish inventories and secure coverage for the remainder of 2026. Yet the region is entering the market with a highly uneven supply picture, as some origins report growing exports while others continue to grapple with weather, labor, and financing challenges.
Among Central American suppliers, Honduras continues to stand out as the region's volume leader. According to the latest figures published by the Honduran coffee sector as of mid-July, physical exports for the 2025/26 harvest reached approximately 6.91 million 46-kilogram bags, an increase of 24.5% over the previous season. Export contracts have surpassed 7.16 million bags, while export earnings have climbed above $2.17 billion despite lower average prices compared with the previous year.
The United States remains Honduras' largest customer, accounting for more than 2.28 million bags, or approximately one-third of total shipments. Germany and Belgium follow as major destinations, highlighting the continued importance of both the U.S. and European markets for Honduran coffee.
USDA projections suggest Honduras' momentum is likely to continue. Production is forecast to reach 6.03 million 60-kilogram bags in MY 2026/27, while exports are expected to increase to roughly 5.5 million 60-kilogram bags, supported by improved agronomic practices, plantation renovation, and the maturation of new coffee acreage.
For importers, Honduras is increasingly viewed as one of the few origins capable of delivering meaningful volume growth at a time when availability from several competing arabica producers remains constrained.
Guatemala is also showing signs of steady improvement following years of renovation efforts and investment in rust-resistant varieties. USDA forecasts indicate Guatemalan coffee exports could reach approximately 2.88 million 60-kilogram bags in 2026/27, while production is expected to rise to 3.13 million bags, supported by increased harvested area and maturing coffee trees. Notably, roughly 42% of Guatemalan coffee exports continue to be destined for the United States, reinforcing the country's strategic importance to North American specialty and premium coffee roasters.
Industry reports indicate approximately 81% of Guatemala's exports are classified as strictly hard bean coffee, a quality distinction that remains highly valued by specialty buyers seeking washed arabicas with strong cup profiles and reliable consistency.
The arrival of freshly harvested Guatemalan coffees is already underway. Importers report containers from producing regions such as Antigua, Huehuetenango, Chimaltenango, and other key growing areas arriving in North America this month, with additional shipments scheduled through August. While volumes are improving, buyers remain cautious about supply availability, as labor challenges and weather variability continue to affect portions of the region.
Costa Rica presents a somewhat different story. Although USDA expects production to increase modestly to 1.2 million 60-kilogram bags in 2026/27, the country's coffee sector continues to face significant structural pressures. A strong Costa Rican colón, falling international coffee prices, rising input costs, and concerns over El Niño have created profitability challenges for growers.
Exports are forecast at approximately 1.06 million bags, with the United States remaining Costa Rica's largest destination market, accounting for nearly 40% of exports. The country's coffee-growing area has declined over recent years, and the number of coffee producers continues to fall. However, Costa Rican coffees remain among the most sought-after in specialty markets due to their quality and consistency. Fresh arrivals from major Costa Rican milling groups are expected to reach warehouses during late July and August.
The importance of Central America's fresh-crop arrivals becomes clearer when examining destination markets. For Honduras, the United States, Germany, and Belgium collectively account for more than 60% of exports. The U.S. alone absorbs roughly one-third of Honduran shipments.
In Guatemala, the United States purchases approximately 42% of exports, remaining by far the country's most important market.
Costa Rica's export profile is similarly concentrated, with the United States accounting for nearly 40% of shipments.
Meanwhile, European demand remains robust. Germany and Belgium continue to rank among the world's largest green coffee import hubs and remain critical destinations for Central American coffees. Honduras' export data show Germany and Belgium alone purchasing nearly 28% of total Honduran exports.
Relief May Be Coming, but Not Abundance
The arrival of fresh-crop coffees should help improve physical availability during the second half of the year. However, buyers should not expect a sudden return to surplus conditions.
Across the region, producers continue to face labor shortages, weather uncertainty, financing constraints, and increasing compliance costs associated with regulations such as the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR). In Nicaragua and parts of Costa Rica, production remains below historical highs, while Guatemala and Honduras are carrying a larger share of regional export growth.
For the coffee market, the key question is no longer whether coffee exists. The question is how quickly those supplies move through the chain. As new-crop coffees arrive from Central America, the industry is entering a crucial test: whether fresh shipments can meaningfully replenish inventories and ease physical-market tightness, or whether strong demand and cautious producer selling will keep supplies tighter than many buyers hope.
That answer is likely to shape differentials, inventory strategies, and purchasing decisions throughout the remainder of 2026.
Alexis Rubinstein
Source: USDA, Coffee Exporters Association of Honduras, Guatemala Coffee Association, Coffee Institute of Costa Rica, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Eurostat
This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.
The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.
References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.
StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.
R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.
StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.
This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.
StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism. SAP is an “Approved International Trading Company” authorized to act as a “Spot Commodity Broker” under the Commodity Trading Act.
StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).
SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.
StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism.
StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.
StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.
StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.
