Quarterly Commodities Outlook is available for free now. Download your report →
By: Editorial Team, StoneX Media
The main gold and silver drivers right now are coming from the macro backdrop rather than the charts themselves. After the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at its latest meeting, both metals steadied near their lows for the year, yet a firm U.S. dollar and Treasury yields near their yearly highs continue to press on prices. That balance matters because it tilts the near-term risk toward a downside break, even as the longer-term chart structure still points to an eventual recovery. For anyone positioned in precious metals, the question is less about the next chart level and more about the timing of any macro turn before support gives way.
Razan Hilal is a FOREX.com Market Analyst and Chartered Market Technician who covers global macro markets from Dubai, with seven years of experience analyzing forex, commodities, equities and equity indices. She works across the same cross-asset drivers that connect central bank policy, the U.S. dollar and bond yields to precious metals such as gold and silver.
A firm U.S. dollar and Treasury yields near their yearly highs are the main reason gold and silver have struggled to advance. Rather than trending, both metals have compressed into an increasingly narrow range as those macro headwinds hold. According to Hilal, "the price action has been coiling and extending within a contracting consolidation", a pattern that has defined the metals through recent trading. Because a stronger dollar and higher yields raise the opportunity cost of holding assets that pay no income, that pressure has kept rallies in check. For anyone watching precious metals, the practical read is that a durable breakout probably needs the dollar and yields to ease first.
"Escalating U.S. Iran tensions that are increasing inflation risks and supporting a more hawkish policy track for central banks, and also lifting U.S. bond yields to fresh 2026 highs", Hilal said. That combination is what makes the geopolitical backdrop so difficult for gold and silver, because the same tensions that can support safe-haven demand are also pushing yields higher and capping the metals. The policy picture adds to the uncertainty, as "markets increasingly consider the possibility of a September rate hike" rather than a cut. Consequently, precious metals are caught between a supportive risk premium and a restrictive rate outlook, which helps explain why neither has broken decisively in either direction. For investors, the takeaway is that the next sustained move likely waits on clarity from the Federal Reserve and on how the geopolitical risk premium develops.
The Federal Reserve holding interest rates steady gave gold and silver room to stabilize near their lows for the year. Even so, downside risks stayed in focus, with a firm U.S. dollar, rising Treasury yields and a hawkish policy tone continuing to weigh on both metals.
Markets are increasingly weighing the possibility of a September rate hike rather than a cut, which would reinforce the hawkish backdrop pressuring gold and silver. At the same time, persistent U.S.-Iran tensions raise inflation risk, leaving the metals caught between a supportive risk premium and a more restrictive rate path.
From detailed guides on how to trade major assets to quarterly market outlooks and special reports, we offer FREE access to the articles you need to successfully implement "global macro" style trading!
Sign Up
--- Written by Gus Farrow, Senior Manager, StoneX Media
--- Expert: Razan Hilal, FOREX.com Market Analyst
The subsidiaries of StoneX Group Inc. provide financial products and services, including, but not limited to, physical commodities, securities, clearing, global payments, risk management, asset management, foreign exchange, and exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives. These financial products and services are offered in accordance with the applicable laws in the jurisdictions in which they are provided and are subject to specific terms, conditions, and restrictions contained in the terms of business applicable to each such offering. Not all products and services are available in all countries. The products and services offered by the StoneX Group of companies involve risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Full Disclaimer. This content is not intended for residents of any particular country, and the information herein is not advice nor a recommendation to trade nor does it constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product or service, by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. Please refer to the Regulatory Disclosure section for entity-specific disclosures. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc. The information herein is provided for informational purposes only. This information is provided on an ‘as-is’ basis and may contain statements and opinions of the StoneX Group of companies as well as excerpts and/or information from public sources and third parties and no warranty, whether express or implied, is given as to its completeness or accuracy. Each company within the StoneX Group of companies (on its own behalf and on behalf of its directors, employees and agents) disclaims any and all liability as well as any third-party claim that may arise from the accuracy and/or completeness of the information detailed herein, as well as the use of or reliance on this information by the recipient, any member of its group or any third party.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. all rights reserved.
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
Gold and silver have steadied, but the pressure has shifted from the charts to the macro backdrop. A firm U.S. dollar, rising Treasury yields and U.S.-Iran tensions now hold the key to the next move.
A document with a substantial number of slides and text, built for the Front Desk internal call and analysing market developments, the economic and political background and key market parameters influencing the precious metals. This week includes material on the Precious Metals, notably Gold's lively action; Powell and the Fed, EU and potential margin compression
Politics, economic, geopolitics and investor sentiment; inflation components
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve; our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.
