Grains Weekly Analysis

By: StoneX Intelligence Brazil, StoneX Intelligence Brazil

Thu, 13 Oct 2022, 13:00

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Corn loses part of its 2022/23 crop acreage to soybeans in Argentina

Nuria Brito

nuria.brito@stonex.com

Ana Luiza Lodi

analuiza.lodi@stonex.com

CONCERNS ABOUT WEATHER AND COSTS AFFECT CEREAL PLANTING INTENTIONS

Attention is focused on the grain crop in South America at a time when the weather is under the La Niña influence for the third consecutive year. Speaking specifically of Argentina, a good part of the country's corn-producing region is currently under drought conditions, which have not been overcome by the latest rainfall recorded recently. As a result, the soybean planting only starts at the end of October.

Given this weather scenario, new adjustments were announced for the 2022/23 Argentinean crop estimates. According to the Rosario Grains Exchange (BCR), about 150,000 hectares of corn should be switched to soybean, bringing the intended planting of corn to an area of 8.2 million hectares. Meanwhile, soybeans will occupy an area of 16.8 million hectares, a gain of 4%.

The concern with the dry weather is one of the reasons for the decrease in the corn area since corn planting starts earlier and suffered from the lack of precipitation last year. In addition, it is important to point out that the production cost of corn per hectare is higher than that of soybean.

Regarding the corn S&D balance for the country's 2022/23 crop, carryin is projected at 2.8 million tonnes and production at 57.7 million tonnes (above the 55 million estimated by the USDA). As a result, domestic consumption tends to remain unchanged in the new crop, allowing for an export volume of up to 38.5 million tonnes (about 2 million more than the current cycle).

Argentina | Supply and demand balance - corn and soybean

Source: BCR. Design: StoneX.

It is important to emphasize that soybean has been presenting a downward trend in its area recently, but in 2022/23, an inter-annual increase is expected, as already mentioned.

The variation in acreage switching from corn to soybean is differentiated within the producing region, as indicated by the Exchange. For example, south of Santa Fe, corn planting intention is almost half of last year, while a 40% increase is expected for soybeans. In Pergamino, a 20% shift in the area from corn to soybeans is expected. In contrast, in Trebol, west central Santa Fe province, early corn plantings will be maintained with almost the same number of hectares as the last crop.

In any case, the weather will remain in the spotlight next month after scarce rains in September, as can be seen in the following map, which indicates less rainfall than in 2021.

Argentina | accumulated monthly precipitation (September 2021 - 2022)

Source: StoneX, with data provided by NASA (Global Precipitation Measurement/GPM), 2022.

Grains & Oilseeds

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