Daily Coffee Report 11/6/26
Daily coffee report
StoneX Coffee Team
- Coffee
Guatemala Coffee Crop Enters Harvest Period Under Growing El Niño Uncertainty
Alexis Rubinstein
Managing Editor - Coffee Network
CoffeeNetwork (New York) – Guatemala's coffee sector is entering a critical transition as the 2026/27 harvest begins in lower-elevation regions and producers across the country's premier arabica-growing areas prepare for peak picking season. While production prospects remain generally favorable and export performance has strengthened, weather has emerged as the dominant variable for the months ahead, with ANACAFÉ warning about the potential impacts of a strengthening El Niño on crop development, harvest operations, and coffee quality.
Unlike many recent coffee market headlines focused on supply problems, Guatemala is not currently facing a major production crisis. Instead, the country's coffee industry is navigating a more nuanced situation: a crop that is largely on track but increasingly exposed to weather-related risks as harvesting begins.
According to the latest outlook from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, Guatemala's 2026/27 coffee production is forecast at approximately 3.13 million 60-kilogram bags, up roughly 3% from the previous season. The increase reflects expanding harvested area, maturing renovated plantations, and continued investment in productivity improvements across the sector. Harvested area is expected to increase to approximately 345,000 hectares, while the number of bearing trees continues to rise as renovation programs mature.
The gradual recovery of Guatemala's coffee sector has been supported by extensive renovation efforts following the severe leaf rust crisis that affected much of Central America during the previous decade. Today, roughly one-third of Guatemala's arabica area consists of rust-tolerant hybrid varieties, helping stabilize yields while maintaining the country's reputation for high-quality production. Arabica continues to account for approximately 98% of planted area and the vast majority of exports.
The timing of this year's weather developments is particularly important because coffee production is entering a highly sensitive phase.
Lower-elevation farms are beginning harvest activities, while premium high-altitude regions such as Huehuetenango, Antigua, Cobán, and parts of San Marcos remain in final cherry maturation before peak harvesting accelerates during the coming months. Harvest activity typically builds from October through January, depending on altitude and regional conditions.
The greatest concern currently stems from the evolution of El Niño conditions. In a special bulletin issued this year, ANACAFÉ warned that the probability of El Niño development exceeded 95%, with expectations for below-normal rainfall, above-average temperatures, prolonged dry periods, and increasing stress on coffee-growing regions. The organization highlighted the potential for moisture stress during fruit filling, reduced nutrient uptake, higher evapotranspiration, increased pest pressure, and possible impacts on coffee quality if conditions worsen.
The warning has become more significant as climate forecasts have strengthened. Guatemala's national weather agency, INSIVUMEH, now projects a 100% probability that El Niño conditions will persist through at least early 2027. Forecast models indicate continued positive Pacific Ocean temperature anomalies that could influence rainfall patterns across much of the country during the upcoming harvest season.
One of the challenges facing Guatemalan coffee producers is that weather risks are not uniform across the country. In some producing areas, concern centers on rainfall deficits and prolonged dry conditions. Local government and meteorological reports indicate that parts of Guatemala have experienced below-average precipitation and drought-related concerns during recent months. Several regions have reported significant rainfall deficits associated with El Niño conditions, creating concerns about moisture availability and crop stress.
At the same time, October forecasts suggest that other coffee-growing regions could experience substantial rainfall. INSIVUMEH's October climate outlook projects active rainfall across the Pacific region, Bocacosta, northern producing areas, and Caribbean zones, with localized accumulations potentially ranging between 150 and 700 millimeters. Additional tropical weather systems and hurricane-season activity remain possible during the remainder of the rainy season.
For coffee producers, this creates a complicated scenario. Excessively dry conditions can affect fruit development and stress coffee trees, while excessive rainfall during harvest can delay picking, complicate drying operations, increase disease pressure, and potentially reduce coffee quality.
Weather is also influencing disease concerns. Recent reports indicate coffee leaf rust incidence reached approximately 20% during periods of elevated moisture and temperatures, while authorities continue monitoring the presence of the coffee branch and stem borer (Xylosandrus compactus) in several coffee-producing departments. So far there is no indication of a widespread outbreak threatening national production, but both issues remain under close observation.
ANACAFÉ has specifically identified increased pest pressure as one of the potential consequences of El Niño-related stress conditions, noting that warmer weather may create favorable environments for coffee berry borer, mites, and scale insects if producers do not maintain adequate field management programs.
Despite growing weather concerns, the sector's commercial performance remains strong. Recent reports indicate Guatemala is on track to export approximately 4.1 million quintals of coffee from the 2025/26 season, potentially marking the country's highest export volume in three years. Export revenues have also benefited from elevated global coffee prices, helping producers invest in nutrition programs, crop management, and renovation efforts.
However, industry officials have cautioned that weather conditions during the current harvest cycle could ultimately influence whether production and export forecasts are achieved. ANACAFÉ has maintained a preliminary estimate of roughly 4.1 million quintals for the new crop but acknowledges that climatic developments will play a major role in determining final outcomes.
At present, Guatemala appears to be a stable supply story rather than an immediate weather-threat story. Production is expected to increase modestly, renovated farms are becoming more productive, and export performance remains healthy. The key question for the market is whether increasingly volatile weather conditions associated with El Niño can be managed successfully as harvest activity accelerates.
Alexis Rubinstein
Sources: USDA, Anacafe, NOAA
- Coffee
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