How the Trump–Iran Standoff Is Impacting Coffee and Coffee Shipping

By: Alexis Rubinstein, Managing Editor - Coffee Network

Wed, 22 Apr 2026, 18:49

CoffeeNetwork (New York) - While coffee is not directly traded through the Strait of Hormuz, the escalation between the United States and Iran is already creating second‑order shocks that matter materially for global coffee logistics, freight pricing, and risk premia. The key transmission channels are energy costs, container availability, shipping insurance, chokepoint congestion, and knock‑on behavior by carriers and traders.

Approximately 20% of global oil flows and LNG trade normally transit the Strait of Hormuz, and even intermittent disruption has pushed crude prices sharply higher in recent weeks, while increasing volatility across refined fuels. For container shipping, the effect shows up most directly in bunker fuel costs, which account for roughly 30–50% of total voyage costs on long‑haul routes.

Carriers have already begun adjusting fuel surcharges and emergency bunker adjustment factors (BAFs) on Asia–Europe and Asia–US East Coast lanes. Coffee exports from Vietnam and Indonesia — both heavily containerized and fuel‑sensitive — are particularly exposed, as higher bunker costs disproportionately affect long east‑west routes to Europe. Even Latin American exports are not immune, as higher global fuel benchmarks feed directly into freight indices.

For roasters and traders, this raises the landed cost of coffee without altering flat prices, tightening margins exactly as green prices remain elevated.

Although most coffee vessels avoid the Persian Gulf entirely, marine insurers price war risk globally once a conflict escalates to sustained naval action. The U.S. seizure of Iranian‑flagged cargo ships and ongoing naval enforcement in Hormuz has already prompted new war‑risk insurance premiums and exclusions, particularly for vessels transiting adjacent seas or operated by large global carriers with Middle East exposure.

Several shipping brokers report that insurers are reassessing coverage terms not just for the Gulf, but also for Red Sea, Bab el‑Mandeb, and Indian Ocean routes, areas already strained by lingering Israel‑Gaza and Yemen‑related disruptions. For coffee, this matters because shipments from East Africa and Asia rely heavily on these corridors.

The effect is subtle but impactful: higher insurance costs are being passed through to shippers, adding to per‑container costs and potentially discouraging carriers from offering spot capacity during periods of heightened risk.

As with previous Middle East disruptions, carriers are responding not just with price adjustments, but also network re‑optimization. Some lines are slow‑steaming to control fuel burn, while others are diverting assets away from politically sensitive regions. The result is longer voyage times and less predictable container repositioning.

This matters for coffee because origins like Brazil, Colombia, and Vietnam depend on cyclical container availability, especially during peak export windows. Any delay in empty container repositioning can slow shipments at origin, even if demand and coffee availability remain strong.

Market participants report early signs of tightening in South American ports, particularly for late‑May and June loadings, as carriers adjust schedules amid rising fuel and insurance uncertainty.

The coffee market is already navigating historically high futures prices, limited certified stocks, and weather uncertainty. The Trump–Iran escalation adds a logistics volatility premium that increases planning risk for roasters, especially in Europe.

European buyers are uniquely exposed because:
Europe imports large volumes of coffee from Asia and East Africa
European ports are more sensitive to fuel‑related cost inflation
Many roasters operate tighter working‑capital cycles

This increases the likelihood that roasters will favor nearby or “logistics‑secure” origins, reinforcing a preference for Brazil, Colombia, and Central America — and potentially discounting origins with longer or more complex shipping chains.

Higher freight and insurance costs also feed into trade‑finance dynamics. Banks already cautious on commodity exposure may require higher collateral or shorten tenors, particularly for exporters shipping to Europe.

At origin, this can delay shipments even when coffee is available, tightening visible supply in consuming markets. Exporters with thinner balance sheets — especially in parts of Africa and Southeast Asia — are most exposed to these pressures.

The key point is that this situation does not create a coffee supply shock, but it does increase the risk of temporary logistical bottlenecks, delayed arrivals, and elevated landed costs. In a market already sensitive to any disruption, that is enough to maintain a bullish tone and elevated volatility, even without a direct hit to production.

If the Hormuz situation de‑escalates, freight premiums may normalize quickly. But if naval enforcement persists and shipping incidents continue — which Trump has explicitly warned could happen — the coffee market should expect persistently higher freight costs into the second half of 2026.

The Trump–Iran standoff is unlikely to stop coffee from moving — but it makes moving coffee more expensive, less predictable, and more capital‑intensive. For roasters, traders, and exporters, the risk is not shortage, but timing, cost inflation, and logistics reliability, all of which can quietly tighten the market even when physical supply looks sufficient.

Alexis Rubinstein

Coffee

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Daily Coffee Report 8/10/26

Daily coffee report

StoneX Coffee TeamMon, 10 Aug 2026, 20:32

Coffee

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 10

August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 13:51

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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