
Daily Coffee Report 8/12/26
Daily coffee report

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By: Alexis Rubinstein, Managing Editor - Coffee Network

CoffeeNetwork (New York) – In their latest forecast, Brazil’s IBGE has pegged the country’s total coffee crop at 56.8 million 60-kg bags, a decrease of 1.4% in relation to the forecast of the previous month, due to the decline in the average yield. For Arabica coffee, the estimated production is 37.0 million 60-kg bags, a decline of 1.6% in relation to the previous month, with the average yield decreasing by 1.7% and the area to be harvested increasing by 0.1%. For the 2025 harvest, a negative biennial is expected, that is, a natural decline in production due to the physiological characteristics of the species, which in even years tends to produce more, sacrificing the production of the following year, as a result of greater plant exhaustion. The 2025 coffee harvest is also reflecting the climatic problems in the main producing areas, notably the lack of rainfall and excessive heat, during the second half of 2024, which is the reason why it started from a relatively lower production potential.
The decline in the production estimate in August is due to Minas Gerais, the largest Brazilian producer of Arabica coffee with a share of 69.4% of the national total, which reassessed its production estimate with a decline of 2.4% in relation to the previous month, notably due to the drop in the average yield of 2.5%. Producers have reported that in the most recent harvests, there is a need for a greater amount of beans to fill a 60 kg bag of coffee, a result of less efficient bean filling. Minas Gerais production is expected to reach 25.7 million 60-kg bags, a decline of 7.5% compared to the volume harvested in 2024.
For canephora coffee, the production estimate is 19.8 million 60-kg bags, decreases of 1.1% in relation to the previous month, however, an increase of 15.8% in relation to the volume produced in 2024, with increases of 4.0% in the area to be harvested and of 11.4% in the average yield in the latter comparison. The estimated production for canephora coffee in 2025 is a record in the IBGE time series.
As the prices of conilon were showing good profitability, the producers invested more in cultural treatments and fertilization, which resulted in improved productivity. It should also be noted that the volumes of rainfall in the main producing municipalities were satisfactory in general, despite the delay in some cases.
In August, Rondônia recorded a decline of 8.9% in its production estimate in relation to July, due to the decreases of 5.3% in the area to be harvested and of 3.7% in the average yield. Production is expected to reach 2.7 million 60-kg bags, a decline of 5.5% in relation to the volume harvested in 2024, with the area to be harvested increasing 3.0% and the average yield falling 8.3% in this comparison. Espírito Santo maintained its estimate in relation to the previous month, and should produce 13.5 million 60-kg bags, an increase of 20.8% in relation to the volume produced in the previous year, with increases of 4.5% in the area to be harvested and of 15.7% in the average yield. Espírito Santo is the largest Brazilian producer of canephora coffee (conilon), and should contribute 68.2% of the total to be harvested in 2025. The estimated production in Bahia should reach 2.9 million 60-kg bags, an increase of 18.0% in relation to the previous year, with the average yield growing 15.7% and the area to be harvested increasing by 2.0%.
Alexis Rubinstein
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Daily coffee report


August 12 – Today’s focus is on inflation, with the July consumer price index data out this morning. We have this, and one more month of data, ahead of the next Federal Reserve meeting. Of course, headlines from the Middle East and the Black Sea wars also have an ongoing influence on the markets. Stock futures posted gains this morning, while the VIX traded just below 15. The dollar index traded near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.66%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.18%. WTI crude oil is trading near $83, while Brent trades near $88 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets rebounded from yesterday’s losses ahead of today’s highly anticipated WASDE crop report that is due out at Noon Eastern Time.


Daily coffee report

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