CocoaNetwork (New York) – The ICCO has released their quarterly bulletin which shows production, grindings and stocks 2022-2023 estimates and 2023-2024 forecasts.
REVISIONS TO 2022/23 ESTIMATES
The revisions to the production and grindings data for the 2022/23 season still confirm that the season recorded a production deficit. Estimated at 76,000 tonnes in the previous Bulletin, the global deficit for the 2022/23 season has been adjusted to 57,000 tonnes. Global production has been revised upwards by 2,500 tonnes from 5.047 million tonnes to 5.050 million tonnes.
At the regional level, production is now estimated at 3.719 million tonnes for Africa, 1.077 million tonnes for the Americas and 253,000 tonnes for Asia and Oceania. Global grindings have been adjusted downwards by 17,000 tonnes from 5.073 million tonnes to 5.057 million tonnes. In terms of regional distribution for grindings, Europe is estimated at 1.792 million tonnes, the Americas at 979,000 tonnes, Africa at 1.189 million tonnes, and Asia and Oceania at 1.096 million tonnes.
REVISIONS TO 2023/24 FORECASTS
With the 2023/24 season approaching its end, the expectation of a significant deficit for the season is being confirmed. Global production has been constrained by less favourable weather conditions coupled with aged trees and continuing losses due to pests and diseases such as Cocoa Swollen Shoot Virus Disease (CSSVD) in major cocoa growing areas in West Africa.
Compared to the previous Bulletin, global production for the 2023/24 season has been revised down by 129,000 tonnes and is projected at 4.332 million tonnes. The countries that led to the revision include Côte d’Ivoire (-60,000 tonnes to 1.740 million tonnes), Ghana (-51,400 tonnes to 450,000 tonnes), Brazil (-20,000 tonnes to 200,000 tonnes), in addition to an increase for Madagascar (+2,500 tonnes to 27,500 tonnes).
Regarding global grindings, in the last three years, the cocoa market has been characterized by a sustained demand for cocoa. It was mainly supported by increasing the number of processing facilities in origin countries as well as an upturn in the global economic activity. This played a role in cocoa demand recovering from the decline caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, especially in the traditional cocoa consuming regions. However, for the ongoing season, cocoa bean shortage and high cocoa prices have slowed down processing activities.
Global grindings are anticipated to be lower than previously published and have been adjusted downwards to 4.751 million tonnes (down by 104,000 tonnes). This was mainly attributed to lower grindings for Côte d’Ivoire (down by 100,000 tonnes to 650,000 tonnes) and Indonesia (down by 40,000 tonnes to 380,000 tonnes). Higher grindings are anticipated for India (up by 10,000 tonnes to 40,000 tonnes). Other minor revisions aggregating to approximately 26,000 tonnes have also been made for some countries.
The global production deficit is now forecast at 462,000 tonnes for the current season. The total statistical stocks of cocoa beans at the end of the 2023/24 season are projected at 1.324 million tonnes, which is equivalent to 27.9% of the annual grindings forecast and indicates a 45-year low stocks-to-grindings ratio.
PRODUCTION
At the regional level, compared to the previous season, both Africa and the Americas are forecast to decrease by 18% to 3.042 million tonnes and by almost 4% to 1.035 million tonnes, respectively. The growth for Asia and Oceania is projected to be slightly up by 0.8% to 255,000 tonnes. In terms of global production shares, Africa continues to remain by far the biggest contributor to global production and accounts for 70%, followed by the Americas with 24% and Asia and Oceania with 6%.
AFRICA
CÔTE D’IVOIRE
Côte d’Ivoire’s output is forecast at 1.740 million tonnes – which is 501,000 tonnes or 22% lower than the previous season. This reflects an eight-year low as the last time the country observed a significant drop of 1.581 million tonnes was in 2015/16 when severe dry weather coupled with an intense harmattan caused havoc to the country’s production. For the current season, unfavourable weather conditions and pests and diseases are the main contributory factors to the low production. Data published by Reuters indicate that since the beginning of the season on 1 October 2023 to 18 August 2024, cocoa beans delivered to Ivorian ports were 1.688 million tonnes.
GHANA
In Ghana, poor weather conditions, aged trees, illegal mining in addition to severe detriments from CSSVD have limited the country’s production. Consequently, cocoa production in Ghana is envisaged to decline significantly to 450,000 tonnes. The production forecast reflects a 22-year low as the last time such levels were observed was in the 2001/02 cocoa year when production was estimated at 340,562 tonnes because of losses in output resulting from the spread of pests and diseases and adverse growing conditions that constrained production.
NIGERIA & CAMEROON
With no obvious observations in trade flow, production in Cameroon and Nigeria have been left unchanged as per the last publication at 300,000 tonnes each.
AMERICAS
Much effort is being put into cocoa production by most producers in Latin America. In Ecuador, production is anticipated at 430,000 tonnes for the 2023/24 season. Output from Brazil is forecast to decrease to 200,000 tonnes as excess rainfall is reported to have a negative impact on the country’s cocoa production. In Peru, the Dominican Republic and Colombia, production is pegged at 170,000 tonnes, 90,000 tonnes and 72,000 tonnes, respectively.
ASIA & OCEANIA
Erratic weather conditions have affected several growing areas in Indonesia. As such, the country’s production is expected at 160,000 tonnes. Concerning Papua New Guinea, production is forecast at 45,000 tonnes while Malaysia’s production continues to be low at 200 tonnes.
GRINDINGS
The outlook for global grindings continues to remain uncertain. As the season progressed, the latest published quarterly grindings data have remained low in Africa, mixed in Asia but shown some signs of resilience in Europe and North America. Some analysts are of the view that grindings in Europe and North America may be due to panic buying in the chocolate industry, as chocolate makers are buying as much as they can, due to the shortage in supplies.
At the regional level, grindings are anticipated to decline in all regions. Grindings are expected to decrease in Europe by 2.6% to 1.745 million tonnes, in the Americas by 3.1% to 949,000 tonnes, in Asia and Oceania by 1% to 1.085 million tonnes, while they are forecast to contract by 18% to 973,000 tonnes in Africa. The global shares per region are expected to be 37% for Europe, 23% for Asia and Oceania, 20% for Africa and 20% for the Americas.
Accounting for 55% of projected global grindings, compared to the previous season, grindings for importing countries are forecast to decline by 2.6% to 2.612 million tonnes for the 2023/24 season. However, quarterly data published by the European Cocoa Association (ECA) for the Q2.2024 period showed a 4.1% rise from a year earlier to 357,502 tonnes. The German Confectionery Industry Association (BDSI) for the same period reported that grindings for the country rose by 7.8% to 101,651 tonnes. Taking into account available information, grindings for the Netherlands, Germany and France are forecast at 590,000 tonnes, 435,000 tonnes and 140,000 tonnes, respectively.
Further to the National Confectioners Association (NCA) quarterly grindings data showing an increase of 2.2% to 104,781 tonnes, grindings for the United States, Canada and Mexico are targeted at 340,000 tonnes, 115,000 tonnes and 60,000 tonnes, respectively.
With a global share of 45%, grindings in origin countries are anticipated to decline by more than 9.8% to 2.140 million tonnes. The move towards downstream production slowed down in top producing countries due to lack of beans. Leading the fall in origin grindings is Côte d’Ivoire. Compared to the previous season, grindings in Côte d’Ivoire are projected at 650,0000 tonnes. This reflects a decrease of almost 18%. Grindings for Ghana are gauged at 180,000 tonnes. For the three-month period April to June 2024, cocoa grindings data published by the Cocoa Association of Asia (CAA) declined by 1.4% to 210,968 tonnes. Grindings for the 2023/24 season for Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore are pegged at 380,000 tonnes, 375,000 tonnes and 90,000 tonnes, respectively.
Alexis Rubinstein
