Daily Coffee Report 6/5/26
Daily coffee report
StoneX Coffee Team
- Coffee
India’s Coffee Exports Pick up Amid Forecasts of Higher Production
By: Alexis Rubinstein, Managing Editor - Coffee Network
CoffeeNetwork (New York) – The latest data from the Coffee Board of India shows that from the start of the current coffee year in October until March 17, the country exported 193,724 tonnes of coffee, an increase of 28% from the 151,127 tonnes exported in the same period of the previous coffee year.
India’s coffee sector is entering 2026 with renewed momentum—and a growing sense that the country’s role in the global coffee economy is evolving beyond its traditional identity as a dependable, export‑oriented robusta supplier. Record production estimates, booming export values, rising imports for processing, and steady domestic consumption growth together point to an industry at an inflection point.
While weather volatility and climate risk remain ever‑present, the latest data from the Coffee Board of India and other official sources suggest that India’s coffee economy is becoming more diversified, more value‑added, and more strategically positioned within global supply chains.
The Coffee Board of India finalized 2024/25 coffee production at 363,500 metric tonnes, equivalent to roughly 6.06 million 60‑kilogram bags, marking a solid recovery after weather‑disrupted seasons earlier in the decade. Output was dominated, as usual, by robusta, which accounted for more than 70% of the total crop.
Looking ahead, the Board’s post‑blossom estimate for 2025/26 projects production at a record 403,000 metric tonnes (about 6.72 million bags), with gains expected across all three major producing states—Karnataka, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu. Arabica production is forecast to rise to approximately 118,000 tonnes, while robusta output could exceed 284,000 tonnes, driven by improved yields and better moisture availability.
However, optimism is tempered by persistent agronomic risks. Excess and continuous monsoon rains have increased disease pressure, particularly black rot in arabica and fruit rot in robusta, raising questions about whether early‑season estimates will fully materialize. USDA analysts similarly caution that India’s coffee output remains highly sensitive to erratic rainfall patterns and rising temperatures, especially in traditional arabica zones.
India’s coffee exports reached US$1.8 billion in FY 2024/25, doubling in value over the past decade and placing coffee among the country’s most successful agricultural export categories. Calendar‑year 2025 exports climbed even higher, touching nearly US$2.0 billion, according to Coffee Board data and government disclosures.
This growth has been driven less by volume expansion and more by elevated global prices, strong demand for instant coffee, and a favorable export mix. Europe remains India’s largest destination, with Italy, Germany, and Belgium leading purchases, while Russia, the Middle East, Japan, and South Korea have emerged as fast‑growing markets.
Instant coffee has become a defining feature of India’s export success. Roughly one‑third of export earnings now come from soluble coffee, reinforcing India’s position as one of the world’s most important suppliers to this segment. Green robusta beans still dominate shipment volumes, but higher‑margin processed products are increasingly shaping export revenues.
Despite strong domestic production, India has also seen a steady rise in coffee imports, a trend that can appear counterintuitive at first glance. In 2024, coffee imports were valued at approximately US$230 million, with volumes just under 80,000 tonnes, according to trade data aggregators and USDA estimates.
These imports are overwhelmingly green robusta beans, sourced primarily from Uganda, Vietnam, Brazil, and Indonesia, and are largely destined for instant coffee manufacturing, blending, and re‑export. Rather than signaling domestic shortages, the trend underscores India’s growing role as a processing and value‑addition hub within global coffee supply chains.
While exports still absorb roughly 70% of India’s coffee production, domestic consumption continues to inch higher. Government data show that coffee consumption rose from about 84,000 tonnes in 2012 to roughly 91,000 tonnes in 2023, reflecting gradual but consistent growth.
USDA forecasts place current domestic consumption in the range of 1.3 to 1.5 million 60‑kg bags, or approximately 78,000 to 90,000 tonnes, with instant coffee accounting for the bulk of household demand.
Alexis Rubinstein
- Coffee
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