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Indonesia Coffee Crop 2025/26: Production Rebounds, Weather Intensifies, and Export Pressures Mount

By: Alexis Rubinstein, Managing Editor - Coffee Network

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CoffeeNetwork (New York) - Indonesia enters the 2025/26 coffee year with an unusual combination of record‑setting production recovery, volatile weather patterns, and structural export challenges that continue to reshape its position in the global market. With robusta trees rebounding faster than expected and atmospheric instability hammering key producing regions, the country’s role as the world’s third‑largest coffee producer is being tested on multiple fronts.

The most significant development this season is Indonesia’s sharp upward revision in its total coffee output. The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) now forecasts 12.5 million 60‑kg bags of total production for 2025/26 — an 18% jump from last season’s 10.7 million bags, and notably higher than early estimates of 11.3 million bags. The increase is driven overwhelmingly by robusta, expected to reach 11 million bags, thanks to improved rainfall, stronger input use, and faster‑than‑expected recovery in lowland areas of Lampung, Bengkulu, and South Sumatra.

High margins from stronger global prices have incentivized smallholders to invest more aggressively in their fields — increasing fertilizer application, pruning, and maintenance levels, all contributing to improved yields and field resilience. Robusta regions in southern Sumatra continue to anchor the country’s output, contributing as much as 70–75% of national production.

Arabica, while a smaller share of the total, is also expected to register a modest improvement. Production is projected to rise slightly to 1.45–1.5 million bags, supported by improved farm inputs in high‑altitude regions including Aceh’s Gayo Highlands, North Sumatra, Java, Sulawesi, and Papua. Arabica continues its twice‑per‑year harvest pattern: April–May and September–October.

Indonesia’s green coffee exports are forecast at 7.8 million bags, up 27% from 2024/25, driven by strong global demand for robusta and increased exportable volume following the recovery in production. A roughly 3% depreciation in the Indonesian currency, the rupiah, also improved price competitiveness. Government trade data showed that coffee shipments between April and August 2025 were 83% higher year‑over‑year.

However, export conditions remain far from smooth. The 2025 reciprocal tariffs imposed by the United States temporarily reduced Indonesia’s market share from 12% to 9% before being lifted, creating short‑term disruptions in shipping cadence and buyer commitments. Meanwhile, the smallholder‑dominated structure — with 98% of farms covering just 1–2 hectares — continues to constrain expansion and introduces volatility in supply consistency.

Exports from Sumatra have faced additional setbacks due to flooding, landslides, and infrastructure damage in northern regions such as Aceh and Medan. Following December 2025’s tropical cyclones, washed‑out bridges and blocked roads brought logistics to a standstill, with exporters temporarily halting offers as they awaited access to dry parchment and intact routes. Delays are expected to continue through January 2026.

The most pressing threat to Indonesia’s coffee sector in early 2026 is volatile and intensifying weather across the archipelago.

BMKG (Indonesia’s national meteorological agency) reported that heavy rainfall was observed across key coffee zones in Sumatra — including Aceh, North Sumatra, and Bengkulu — throughout January so far. A weak La Niña coupled with a negative Indian Ocean Dipole and a strengthened Asian monsoon intensified an already adverse scenario. Flash floods, landslides and transportation disruptions were all reported. The frequent rainfall at this point in the crop cycle could hinder drying of the coffee and elevate risks of quality degradation.

A prolonged spell of unstable weather driven by weak La Niña and the Asian monsoon is forecast to continue into early February, affecting nearly all major islands.

Indonesia’s expanded production comes at a critical moment: global robusta demand is soaring, particularly in Europe and Asia, and Indonesia ranks as the region’s second‑largest supplier. But the dual pressures of climate volatility and logistical fragility complicate the outlook.

Robusta availability should remain strong, supporting global supply at a time when Brazil and Vietnam face more mixed harvest conditions. Quality risks rise in prolonged wet seasons, especially for arabica producers dependent on sun‑drying. Export disruptions may tighten the flow of premium Sumatran arabicas (Gayo, Mandheling) just as roasters seek alternatives to tightening Colombian supplies.

With supply chains already stretched and the meteorological picture growing more unpredictable, Indonesian coffee in 2026 is poised to remain both abundant and fragile — a powerful but vulnerable anchor in the global market.

Alexis Rubinstein

 

  • Coffee

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