Daily Coffee Report 7/2/26
Daily coffee report
StoneX Coffee Team
- Coffee
Indonesia’s Robusta Exports Stumble at Start of New Marketing Year as Production Declines Take Hold
By: Alexis Rubinstein, Managing Editor - Coffee Network
CoffeeNetwork (New York) - Fresh Indonesian trade data from Sumatra—the country’s dominant coffee-producing island—point to a sharply weaker start to the 2026/27 coffee year, underscoring tightening Robusta supply and the lingering impact of reduced production.
Exports of Robusta coffee from Sumatra during April, the first month of the April-to-March marketing cycle, totaled 131,046 bags. This represents a steep year-on-year decline of 45.33%, equivalent to a drop of 108,692 bags compared to April 2025. The contraction marks a decisive shift from the previous season, reflecting both reduced available supply and a delayed export flow at the outset of the new crop cycle.
The subdued export performance aligns with broader expectations for a smaller Indonesian coffee crop in the 2026/27 season. Production is forecast at approximately 12.37 million bags, representing a notable decline from the previous year and reinforcing concerns about tightening availability in one of the world’s key Robusta origins.
At the heart of this downturn is the country’s Robusta segment, which is projected to fall by 9.05% year-on-year to around 10 million bags. Given that Robusta accounts for the overwhelming majority of Indonesia’s coffee output—and that Sumatra plays a central role in export supply—the decline is already feeding through into weaker early-season shipment volumes. By contrast, Arabica production is expected to post marginal growth of 0.75%, reaching 1.38 million bags. However, this modest increase is not sufficient to offset the broader contraction in Robusta output, leaving total production on a downward trajectory.
The export outlook reflects this tighter supply picture. Indonesia is forecast to ship approximately 7 million bags of green coffee during the April 2026 to March 2027 marketing year, a decline of 10.71% compared to the previous cycle. The sharp drop in April exports suggests that this lower full-year export projection is already beginning to materialize, with exporters facing reduced inventories and a slower start to the shipping season.
From a market perspective, Indonesia’s weakening export flow comes at a critical time for global Robusta supply dynamics. As one of the largest Robusta producers alongside Vietnam and Brazil, Indonesia’s output plays an important balancing role in the global market, particularly for price-sensitive blends and instant coffee manufacturing. A smaller Indonesian crop, coupled with a sluggish export start, could tighten nearby availability and lend support to Robusta prices, especially if similar supply constraints persist across other producing regions.
Seasonality also remains an important factor. Indonesian exports typically build momentum as the harvest progresses and logistics normalize, meaning that April figures do not always fully capture the pace of shipments later in the year. Nonetheless, the scale of the year-on-year decline this April highlights a fundamentally weaker supply base rather than purely timing-related delays. Export volumes would need to accelerate significantly in the coming months to close the gap, a scenario that appears increasingly unlikely given the reduced production outlook.
In this context, the early data from Sumatra serve as a leading indicator of a tighter Indonesian export campaign ahead. For market participants, particularly those tracking Robusta availability, the combination of lower production, slower initial shipments, and reduced export forecasts points to a more constrained supply environment over the course of the 2026/27 marketing year.
As the season unfolds, attention will turn to harvest progress across Sumatra and other producing regions, as well as the pace at which exports recover from this slow start. However, barring a significant improvement in yields or a shift in farmer selling behavior, Indonesia’s contribution to global Robusta supply is set to diminish in the months ahead—adding another layer of uncertainty to an already volatile coffee market.
Alexis Rubinstein
- Coffee
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Daily Coffee Report 7/1/26
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