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By: Josh Linville, Vice President- Fertilizer
The below graph has prices listed in USD. All prices are FOB or priced at their origin.
I will say this now and will say it going forward to eternity: these are the flat price graphs for each individual location. Your price where you are is going to be different. There are logistics. There is the cost of storage/interest/insurance/etc. These graphs should not be taken as "it shows the price at $700, why isn't my price $700". These graphs should be used to give an appreciation for price movements thru 2022.
For Morocco, who has steadily become a larger player in the world of phosphate, the 5% drop will make it easier/cheaper to send tonnage to the U.S (which will also help Canada). However, if global demand returns, Morocco very well may look at the U.S. as a last ditch destination.
For Phosagro, the U.S. may as well be the moon for destinations. Their new duty rate was set high enough that they can go anywhere around the world before the U.S. makes sense.
Unfortunately, this was not the end of all duty rates as some had hoped. Barriers to import entry remain. The battle will likely wage on.
Price comparisons
U.S. Midwest Average (using multiple points across Midwest) price comparison
U.S. Northern Plains Average price comparison
U.S. Southern Plains Average price comparison
Morocco DAP price comparison
Number 2 exporter of DAP/MAP in 2021
Top 5 export destinations (7M exported in 2021)
Price comparisons:
Black Sea DAP price comparison
Number 3 exporter of DAP/MAP in 2021
Top 5 export destinations (4MMT exported in 2021)
Price comparisons:
India DAP price comparison
Number 2 importer of DAP/MAP in 2021
Top 5 import origins (4.8MMT imported in 2021)
Price comparisons:
China DAP price comparison
Number 1 exporter of DAP/MAP in 2021
Top 5 export destinations (10MMT exported in 2021)
Price comparisons:
Saudi Arabia DAP price comparison
Number 3 exporter of DAP/MAP in 2021
Top 5 export destinations (4.1MMT exported in 2021)
Price comparisons:
Brazil DAP price comparison
Number 1 importer of DAP/MAP in 2021
Top 5 import origins (6.15MMT imported in 2021)
Price comparisons
We believe that only looking at the flat price of either grains or fertilizer can be misleading:
We look at the ratio "value" to get a better indication of where we are or how many bushels of X does it take to pay for 1 ton of fertilizer.
Would you rather:
When we compare the current ratio value against recent years, we start to see if we are high or low.
YOUR VALUES WILL LOOK DIFFERENT
This graph looks at the NOLA DAP price vs the flat grain price. There are no logistics on either product. Your location will look different due to fertilizer logistical costs, grain basis, etc.
All data was sourced from StoneX unless otherwise noted.
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