Daily Coffee Report 8/11/26
Daily coffee report
StoneX Coffee Team
- Coffee
La Niña Advisory, Neutral on Deck: What the ENSO Pivot Means for the Global Coffee Crop
By: Alexis Rubinstein, Managing Editor - Coffee Network
CoffeeNetwork (New York) - The latest NOAA/CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion (Jan 8, 2026) keeps the La Niña Advisory in place, with ~75% odds of a transition to ENSO‑neutral during January–March (JFM) 2026, and Neutral likely through at least late spring. CPC notes the ocean–atmosphere system still reflects La Niña, but subsurface warming in the west/central Pacific is expanding eastward—classic pre‑transition behavior.
The IRI likewise places ENSO‑neutral as the most likely category for JFM (~69%), with Neutral dominating into boreal spring; probabilities tilt toward El Niño later in 2026, though forecast skill is always lower across the “spring predictability barrier.”
CPC’s late‑January briefing deck underscores the same message: La Niña is present but weakening, Neutral favored in JFM (~75%), with atmospheric anomalies still showing a La Niña flavor that can linger for weeks even after SSTs cross the threshold.
What does this mean for the global coffee crop?
In Brazil, through late 2025, La Niña’s composite signals pointed to drier tendencies in the South, wetter in parts of the North/Northeast, and irregular rainfall in the Southeast (Minas Gerais/Espírito Santo)—a pattern that can complicate bloom set, bean fill, and disease pressure. Brazilian studies show ENSO phases influence yield and disease risk unevenly by region and elevation; ENSO‑rust risk linkages appear strongest in southern/south‑eastern coffee belts where rainfall regimes respond more reliably to ENSO. A transition to neutral could mean that rainfall distribution normalizes, but with lingering La Niña‑like circulation in early Q1. Forecasts say episodic wet bursts (MJO‑driven) alternating with dry breaks are possible, rather than a consistent ENSO push. This favors catch‑up soil‑moisture recharge in some Arabica zones while limiting prolonged water stress in Conilon areas—if timely pulses arrive. Neutral reduces deterministic ENSO pressure, but warm, humid intervals can still spike coffee leaf rust (CLR) risk—especially where canopy humidity remains high; regional studies flag CLR’s sensitivity to minimum temperature/relative humidity under ENSO variability.
Colombia’s Andean cordilleras filter ENSO signals through complex orography: La Niña often juices the rainy seasons, with impacts on flowering synchrony, cherry set, and post‑flowering disease/pest pressure. Research in the Chinchiná basin and broader Coffee Axis shows ENSO’s rainfall and temperature perturbations affect phenology and pest/disease dynamics; adaptation (shade, varieties, timing) is crucial. With Neutral likely by late Q1, expect less predictable seasonal anomalies; second rainy season carry‑over effects and terrain‑driven convection remain decisive. Neutral can still yield very wet, very dry, or near‑normal outcomes—local drivers rule.
Late‑2025 La Niña‑enhanced storms drenched Vietnam’s Central Highlands during peak harvest, delaying picking and sun‑drying, and triggering flood impacts across Dak Lak/Gia Lai/Lâm Đồng. National and international reporting documented fatal flooding, widespread disruption, and quality risks from persistent humidity. USDA’s Vietnam outlook for MY 2025/26 (May 2025) projected a production rebound to ~31 M bags on better management and favorable conditions; Neutral in JFM should reduce the odds of sustained extreme wet anomalies, giving producers a clearer post‑harvest processing window—but MJO pulses can still trigger multi‑day rain.
Analysis of Indonesia finds ENSO and IOD impacts vary by province, with La Niña years associated with yield declines (≈6–22%) in many centers—consistent with excess rainfall hampering flowering/drying and raising disease pressure. Suitability studies for Sumatra/Lampung also warn of hydro‑climate sensitivity and the need for adaptation. A step‑down in persistent wet anomalies improves field access and post‑harvest drying, supporting the 2025/26 rebound USDA FAS Jakarta and industry reports anticipated. That said, Neutral doesn’t erase late‑wet‑season downpours—particularly when the MJO traverses the Maritime Continent.
While this advisory is Pacific‑focused, East Africa’s seasonal rainfall responds to ENSO, IOD, and regional jets. As La Niña fades, ENSO’s imprint weakens into spring; this can impact short‑term rainfall during post‑harvest drying windows.
A La Niña to Neutral transition in January-March is constructive for harvest logistics in SE Asia and reduces deterministic risk of extended anomalies elsewhere. But Neutral is also noisier: crop outcomes will hinge on subseasonal pulses and local factors, not a single ENSO script.
Alexis Rubinstein
- Coffee
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August 11 – It was generally a quiet night for the markets until early this morning when a headline hit that Iran and Oman were close to reaching a deal. Stock futures rallied, while the dollar index followed Treasury yields lower, along with active selling in the energy- and food-based commodities. The headline had limited impact though in a world that has become skeptical of promises of peace. Stock futures remain steady to firmer at this hour, while the VIX trades near 16 – just above 2026 lows. The dollar index is trading near 99.8 this morning, after recovering from its early morning selloff over the following hour of trade. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.69%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.22%. WTI crude oil is trading near $82 per barrel at this hour, while Brent trades near $88. The grain and oilseed markets are mostly weaker, after failing to recover from this morning’s early selloff that started in the crude oil market.
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Daily Coffee Report 8/10/26
Daily coffee report
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- Coffee
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