Mondelez and ADM report earnings tomorrow.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will delay the release of the January jobs report due to the federal government shutdown, temporarily removing a key data point for markets and policymakers. The delay adds uncertainty around near-term assessments of labor-market momentum, wage trends, and inflation pressures, and may complicate Federal Reserve expectations in the short run. Until the report is released, markets are likely to lean more heavily on secondary indicators and surveys, increasing the risk of volatility driven by incomplete or noisier signals about economic conditions.
President Donald Trump confirmed that he spoke directly with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, reinforcing signs of easing U.S.–India trade tensions after news that Washington plans to lower India’s reciprocal tariff rate to 18% from 25%. The call highlights a more constructive bilateral tone at a time when India is facing fiscal pressure and rising bond yields, and suggests the U.S. is prioritizing strategic and economic alignment over escalation. While the tariff cut is incremental, the combination of direct leader-level engagement and reduced trade barriers improves the outlook for negotiations, slightly lowers cost pressures on affected goods, and supports market sentiment around U.S.–India relations.
Weekly U.S. export inspections for the week ending January 29 showed firm grain movement, with soybeans at 1.311 MMT and corn at 1.136 MMT, underscoring resilient demand despite peak South American competition. Soybean shipments were heavily China-centric, with 740k tons—more than half of the weekly total—bound for China, followed by Mexico and Egypt, highlighting China’s continued role as the swing buyer even amid Brazil’s harvest. Corn inspections were led by Japan (444k tons), with Mexico and Colombia also key destinations, reinforcing steady feedgrain demand across Asia and the Western Hemisphere. Wheat inspections lagged at 327k tons, led by Mexico, Malaysia, and Taiwan, reflecting ongoing competitiveness challenges versus Black Sea and other exporters. Overall, the destination mix supports a constructive outlook for U.S. corn and soybean export flow, while wheat remains the relative weak spot in the complex.
U.S. cattle supplies are expected to remain historically tight through at least 2026–27, according to executives at Tyson Foods, as ranchers show limited signs of rebuilding herds that have fallen to the smallest level since 1951. The prolonged shortage is pushing cattle costs sharply higher—up about $850 million year over year in the most recent quarter—squeezing beef packer margins and forcing capacity reductions, including plant closures and production cuts. While there are early indications of herd rebuilding in some regions, Tyson cautioned that it will likely take roughly two years before that translates into meaningfully higher cattle availability for processors, reinforcing expectations that beef remains the most challenged protein segment in the near to medium term.
The January U.S. ISM Manufacturing report showed a sharp and broad-based upside surprise, with the headline PMI jumping to 52.6 versus expectations near 48.5, signaling a return to expansion for the first time in months. New orders surged to 57.1, production rose to 55.9—the highest since February 2022—and employment improved meaningfully, though it remains slightly in contraction. At the same time, the prices-paid index increased to 59, indicating renewed inflation pressure alongside stronger activity. Overall, the report points to a genuine re-acceleration in U.S. manufacturing rather than a temporary rebound, complicating the case for near-term Fed rate cuts and reinforcing a firmer macro demand backdrop.
Hogs
Bought 1000 April 110 calls paid .25
Bought 450 June 90 puts paid .40 up to .45
Bought 200 June 100 puts paid 1.575
Bought 125 April 96/80 put spread v. 102 calls paid .800
Bought 200 Aug 106/98 combo paid 5.10 covered 108.62
Bought 1000 April 90 puts paid .90 up to 1.025
Sold 400 April 91 puts @ 1.15 covered 98.625
Bought 125 June 206 puts paid 1.50
Sold 150 June 102 calls @ 10.00
Sold 100 Aug 114/102 combos @ .925 covered 109.50
Bought 450 June 90 puts paid .45 up to .4750
Bought 200 May 110 calls paid 1.1250
Bought 300 June 110/106 put spread paid 1.675
Sold 250 July 110/106 put spread @ 1.625
Sold 150 Aug 110/106 put spreads @ 1.775
Live Cattle
Sold 200 June 228 puts @ 5.50
Bought 400 April 240 puts paid 5.50 up to 5.850
Sold 300 Feb 233 puts @ .275
Bought 600 April 240 calls paid 5.375 up to 5.45
Sold 500 March 230 puts @ 1.70 down to 1.50
Bought 500 April 238/230 put spreads paid 2.35
Bought 250 April 239/235 put spreads paid 1.50 up to 1.525
Sold 350 Feb 236 calls @ 3.475 down to 3.375
Bought 350 April 240/242 call spread paid 1.05
Bought 150 April 222/190 put spread paid .875
Bought 350 Feb 234/239 call spreads paid 3.775 up to 3.825
Feeder Cattle
Bought 100 March 320/300 put spread paid .40
Sold 1300 March 368/364 put spreads @ 1.825 down to 1.725
Bought 150 April 405 calls paid 1.45
Sold 350 April 340/320 put spread @ 2.350 down to 2.325
Bought 100 March 350/380 call spread paid 17.35 up to 17.40
| Lean Hogs | | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| LHG6 | 87.750 | 0.500 | 88 | 9.7 | -0.40 | 1.03 | 0.54 | 0.83 | 15.10 | 16 |
| LHH6 | 96.625 | 1.475 | 97 | 19.7 | 0.40 | 2.53 | 1.20 | 1.05 | 17.28 | 39 |
| LHJ6 | 96.625 | 1.475 | 97 | 17.9 | -0.20 | 2.53 | 1.09 | 1.05 | 17.28 | 74 |
| LHK6 | 100.625 | 1.700 | 100 | 18.8 | 0.30 | 1.18 | 1.19 | 0.93 | 14.61 | 105 |
| LHM6 | 109.775 | 1.850 | 110 | 18.6 | 0.00 | 2.55 | 1.29 | 0.85 | 12.31 | 134 |
| Live Cattle | | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| LCG6 | 238.175 | 2.325 | 238 | 15.1 | -0.10 | 2.10 | 2.27 | 1.75 | 11.67 | 4 |
| LCH6 | 239.525 | 2.725 | 240 | 14.0 | -1.40 | 2.75 | 2.11 | 1.88 | 12.43 | 32 |
| LCJ6 | 239.525 | 2.725 | 240 | 14.3 | -1.30 | 2.75 | 2.16 | 1.88 | 12.43 | 59 |
| LCK6 | 234.250 | 2.525 | 234 | 15.1 | -1.10 | 2.65 | 2.23 | 1.80 | 12.18 | 88 |
| LCM6 | 234.250 | 2.525 | 234 | 14.9 | -1.10 | 2.65 | 2.20 | 1.80 | 12.18 | 123 |
| Feeder Cattle | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| FCH6 | 366.350 | 6.075 | 366 | 15.9 | -1.30 | 5.25 | 3.67 | 3.85 | 16.66 | 53 |
| FCJ6 | 364.175 | 5.900 | 364 | 16.9 | -1.00 | 5.10 | 3.88 | 3.85 | 16.80 | 88 |
| FCK6 | 360.350 | 5.225 | 360 | 17.4 | -0.80 | 4.58 | 3.95 | 3.72 | 16.41 | 109 |
| FCQ6 | 358.575 | 4.525 | 358 | 17.1 | -0.60 | 3.82 | 3.86 | 3.50 | 15.52 | 207 |
| FCU6 | 356.150 | 4.400 | 356 | 16.8 | -0.50 | 3.50 | 3.77 | 3.40 | 15.17 | 235 |
sources
news bloomberg
options data globex
vols bloomberg
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