Logistics, Not Supply, May Be Coffee's Biggest Challenge in the Second Half of 2026

CoffeeNetwork (New York) - Over the past several months, the coffee trade has watched global logistics become one of the most influential variables in market behavior. While freight conditions have improved relative to the peak disruptions experienced earlier this year, exporters, importers, traders, and roasters continue to face elevated costs, longer transit times, vessel rerouting, container shortages, and persistent schedule uncertainty. The result is a global supply chain that remains vulnerable even as coffee production prospects improve.

For coffee buyers hoping that larger crops in Brazil and Vietnam would quickly rebuild inventories and ease market tightness, the logistical reality has been more complicated. Coffee may be available at origin, but getting those supplies efficiently to consuming markets remains an ongoing challenge.

Although geopolitical tensions have eased somewhat since the height of the Middle East shipping crisis earlier this year, many ocean carriers continue to avoid traditional trade routes through the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz. Shipping lines including major global operators have maintained rerouting strategies around the Cape of Good Hope, extending voyage times and reducing overall vessel availability across the container market.

These diversions have created ripple effects far beyond the Middle East. Routes linking Asia and Europe remain particularly affected, with some voyages requiring an additional 10 to 14 days compared with historical transit schedules. In some cases, end-to-end shipping times have increased by nearly a month depending on the trade lane and transshipment requirements.

The consequences extend well beyond transportation. Longer voyages tie up equipment, reduce vessel capacity, create scheduling bottlenecks, and increase inventory carrying costs throughout the coffee supply chain. Importers that once relied on predictable transit schedules are increasingly having to hold larger safety stocks to mitigate uncertainty.

One of the most visible impacts has been the increase in freight-related costs.

Industry estimates suggest global spot container freight rates remain approximately 30% to 40% above levels seen before the escalation of shipping disruptions earlier this year. Even coffee routes with little direct exposure to the Middle East have experienced higher transportation costs as vessel capacity is redistributed throughout global networks.

Coffee shippers are also contending with a range of additional surcharges. Emergency bunker adjustments, fuel-related fees, and carrier-imposed general rate increases remain common across many trade routes. These costs have been passed through to exporters, traders, roasters, and ultimately consumers.

Perhaps the most dramatic example emerged during the shipping disruptions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, when some carriers introduced war-risk surcharges reaching as high as $3,500 per container. While these charges primarily affected Gulf-related trade, they contributed to broader increases in logistics costs across the global shipping sector.

At the same time, higher freight costs coincide with elevated financing costs. Every additional week coffee spends in transit increases working capital requirements for traders and importers, adding another layer of expense to an already costly supply chain.

Among coffee-producing nations, Brazil remains one of the most important logistics stories.

The world's largest coffee producer is currently moving through a harvest that is expected to be significantly larger than last year's crop. Yet exporters are encountering congestion throughout the country's agricultural export system as coffee competes with soybeans, corn, sugar, and other commodities for trucking capacity, containers, port access, and vessel space. [

Recent rainfall across major growing regions has slowed harvest activities and delayed the movement of coffee from farms into commercial channels. While the coffee remains available, the pace at which it is reaching export pipelines has been slower than many market participants anticipated. This has contributed to recent strength in Arabica futures despite expectations for a record crop.

The Brazilian situation highlights a growing theme in coffee markets: supply availability is increasingly determined not simply by production volume but by how efficiently that production can move through the supply chain.

Vietnam, the world's largest robusta producer, remains another key area of concern.

The country continues to export aggressively and is forecast to produce another large crop. However, Vietnamese shipments remain vulnerable to the lingering effects of vessel rerouting and disruptions affecting Asia-Europe container services.

Coffee destined for Europe has experienced longer voyages as carriers continue to avoid traditional Red Sea routes. Exporters report that transit schedules remain less predictable than historical norms, complicating inventory planning for international buyers.

This issue is significant because Vietnam is expected to play a major role in rebuilding global coffee supplies. USDA forecasts indicate the country's production will continue growing, supported by expanded planting and productivity gains. Yet larger production alone does not guarantee immediate market availability if logistics remain constrained.

Elsewhere, several coffee origins continue to experience localized logistics difficulties.

East African exporters, including Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, and Ethiopia, remain exposed to disruptions in international transshipment networks. Many shipments depend on feeder services and intermediate ports that have experienced congestion and scheduling challenges as global shipping patterns adjust to vessel diversions.

In Central America, equipment availability has become a persistent concern. Reports of container shortages in Honduras and Nicaragua have created additional hurdles for exporters, particularly those operating in specialty coffee markets where shipment timing is often critical.

While the scale of these challenges may be smaller than those affecting Brazil or Vietnam, they can still have significant impacts on local export performance and buyer relationships.

The greatest threat to the coffee supply chain today is not a single catastrophic disruption but the cumulative effect of numerous smaller problems.

A shipment may spend several extra days waiting for trucking capacity, another week awaiting vessel space, and additional time navigating slower ocean transit schedules. Individually, these delays may appear manageable. Collectively, however, they can significantly extend the time required for coffee to move from producing countries to consuming markets.

This becomes especially important in an environment where certified Arabica inventories remain historically low and many roasters continue operating with limited supply cushions. When inventories are thin, even relatively minor logistical disruptions can have outsized market impacts.

As the coffee market enters the second half of 2026, the focus is beginning to shift from production forecasts toward execution risk.

Brazil appears poised to harvest one of its largest crops in years, while Vietnam is expected to continue expanding production and exports. On paper, the global supply outlook looks increasingly comfortable. Yet the ability of those supplies to reach end users efficiently remains uncertain.

For traders, roasters, and importers, logistics may prove to be the defining variable of the months ahead. The coffee industry is discovering that a larger crop does not automatically solve a tight market. Before inventories can rebuild and supply chains can normalize, the coffee must first make its way from producing countries to consumers—and in 2026, that journey remains more complicated and expensive than many expected.

Alexis Rubinstein

Source: SeaIntelligence, USDA, Aeki-Aice, VICOFA, CeCafe