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By: Matt Weller, Head of Market Research
The beginning of a new month marks a good opportunity to review the seasonal patterns that have influenced the markets since 1990.
As always, these seasonal tendencies are just historical averages, and any individual month or year may vary from the historic average, so it’s important to complement these seasonal leans with alternative forms of analysis to create a long-term successful trading strategy. In other words, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Source: TradingView, StoneX. Please note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Historically, May has been a solid if unremarkable month for US stocks, with the broad S&P 500 index sporting an average (price-only) return of +1.0% over the last 35 years. The S&P 500 is coming off an incredible April, having gained +10.6% to hit fresh record highs as traders focused on strong earnings reports and guidance while ignoring the ongoing conflict in Iran. A small pullback or consolidation in May would be a healthy development heading into the summer doldrums, but the ongoing bullish momentum and back half of Q1 earnings season could keep any dips limited.
Source: TradingView, StoneX. Please note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Looking at the above chart, the Nasdaq 100 has historically seen strong performance in May as well, to the tune of a +1.9% average gain since 1990. Like the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100 rocketed to record highs last month, helped along by strong gains in Alphabet/Google (+34%) and Amazon (+27%) in particular. In addition to any consequential headlines out of the Middle East, Nvidia’s earnings on May 20 will be a major volatility catalyst to mark on your calendar later this month.
Source: TradingView, StoneX. Please note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Source: TradingView, StoneX. Please note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Turning our attention to commodities, May has historically been a modestly positive month for gold performance, with an average gain of +0.2% going back to 1990. Gold slipped a little over -1% in April as the prior bullish momentum dried up. After the big run higher throughout 2024 and 2025, traders are torn between considering it more of a “risk asset” that rallies along with rising sentiment or its more traditional “safe haven” role, and until a dominant framework emerges, gold may continue to march to the beat of its own drummer.
Source: TradingView, StoneX. Please note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Last but not least, WTI Crude Oil has historically seen positive performance in May, with an average gain of +2.5% over the last 35 years. Oil was highly volatile in April, trading in a nearly $40 range between the mid-$70s and low $110s, ultimately finishing up a bit more than +3%. To be frank, the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz is the dominant storyline for oil this month (and indeed, perhaps this whole decade), and the longer it remains functionally impassable, the higher oil prices are likely to go, regardless of the historical seasonal trends.
As always, we want to close this article by reminding readers that seasonal tendencies are not gospel so it’s important to complement this analysis with an examination of the current fundamental and technical backdrops for the major markets and the global economy.
-- Written by Matt Weller, Global Head of Research
Check out Matt’s Daily Market Update videos on YouTube and be sure to follow Matt on Twitter: @MWellerFX
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