Marketing Pools
By: Matthew Snell, Senior Risk Manager
- Grains & Oilseeds
The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI . StoneX is a trading name of StoneX Financial Ltd (“SFL”). SFL is registered in England and Wales, Company No. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 446717] to provide to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorised to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorised & regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority. StoneX Group Inc. acts as agent for SFL in New York with respect to its payments services business. StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. acts as agent for SFL in Singapore with respect to its payments services business. ‘StoneX’ is the trade name used by StoneX Group Inc. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 28
August 28 – Stocks have fallen into the red at midday, with the Nasdaq (-0.7%) leading the way down, followed by the S&P 500 (-0.3%), then the Dow Jones (-0.1%). The VIX has risen slightly through the session but remains low from a historical context, currently hovering just below the 14.7 level. The dollar has officially erased last week’s sharp losses as it surges higher following largely hawkish comments from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh that we’ll outline in more depth below. Treasuries are seeing a substantial flattening of the yield curve after his comments, with 2-year yields screaming higher, currently nearing their July highs as they trade back above 4.35%, while 10-year yields near 4.73%, but 30-year yields see only a modest increase to trade just below 5.21%. Crude oil has bounced from the morning lows to trade only narrowly in the red at the time of writing, with nearby WTI trading at $83.30 and nearby Brent trading at $88.00.
- Grains & Oilseeds
Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 28
August 28 – New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh takes center stage today from the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole Symposium, due to provide his address in the next hour. The market will surely be parsing over his words with a fine-tooth comb, but it’s worth keeping in mind that his stated goal is for the Fed to provide less forward guidance and play a less prominent role, allowing the trade to “play the ball, not the referee.” With that said, my own expectation is to hear largely hawkish language as we did following the July Fed meeting as Warsh doubled down on the Fed’s stated commitment to its elusive 2.0% inflation mandate, which may drive volatility in rate expectations in the short-term, but keep in mind that expectations softened notably in the month that followed his hawkish comments. Not much has fundamentally changed since the Fed’s July meeting: inflation remains above target and the economy continues to expand, but a weak July payrolls report has introduced more concern around the labor side of the dual mandate. Yesterday’s jobless claims did give some renewed signs of resilience in the labor market to potentially aid in providing a permission signal to move rates higher, but I still expect the Fed to emphasize the need for patience. There is obviously plenty more impactful data on both inflation and the labor market sitting between now and the Fed’s September meeting, so much of the focus may also be attempting to discern longer-term changes to Fed strategy and positioning moving forward instead of just their immediate next step.
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- Grains & Oilseeds
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