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May '23 Farmer Fertilizer Focus - Potash

By: Josh Linville, Vice President- Fertilizer

Banner Fertilizer
May '23 POTASH
 
Josh Linville
Vice President - Fertilizer
NOLA potash price graph
Please remember that this is looking at the cost of one short ton of potash sitting in a barge at NOLA (New Orleans, Louisiana).  Your cost is not going to be the same.  This should be looked at more in regards to the price direction rather than the actual pricing.
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What everyone wants to know first, what do we think will happen going forward
Globally
We have a long summer in front of us and my gut feel is that no one around the world is going to feel pressured that they have to buy immediately.  If that is the case, demand disappears and unsold inventory levels start to build. 
Higher supplies + lower demand = lower prices
If we were to suddenly lose Russian exports due to continued/escalated approaches in Ukraine, all bets are off.  If we woke to no longer having Belarus (#3 global exporter) AND Russia (#2 global exporter) product available (meaning 100% world cuts them off), prices are going to look attractive and buyers would step forward quickly.  With that being a fairly low probability, I would bet on it.
North America
This spring looks like it was solid and very likely has wiped out inventories in warehouses across the land.  Otherwise, there is no way that nearby potash values would have risen in recent weeks.  If there was more than enough product available, prices would not increase.  In fact, long positions would be falling all over themselves to chase remaining demand.  Still...
Once spring demand is behind us, it feels as though prices will start to slide again
As I look to the summer months, there are a couple things that have me leaning this way.
  • After the last year, buyers will be extremely reluctant to purchase product early
  • Interest rates being higher means buying early equates to a higher cost of carry 
  • Future grain values have been falling which will not excite buyers to step in early

Like global, there are paths to higher prices today.  I just feel there are more reasons why it could go down than go up.

Should you lock in spring '23 potash needs today?
Well, it's May so I'm guessing most reading this are already well past their spring '23 potash application.  So with that said...
Should you lock in fall '23 potash needs today?
I would watch but ultimately wait today...if you even have a price for fall to consider
There are a couple things that rattle around in my head that I'm watching that could push prices higher but I think they are more than outweighed by reasons why it could go down.  That said, do not sleep on it and keep having those conversations with your retailer.  There is going to be a solid opportunity or two in front of us but typically, those do not exist very long.  Better to be having those talks and be ready to pounce when it happens than to wait and start from scratch and miss the chance.
General global potash information
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What has happened in the last 30 days?
India locked up their annual contract (global story)
The fact that India secured all the potash that they need for the coming year is not a story in itself.  This is a typical thing that is done and something that is highly watched for as it helps give the global market an idea of what manufacturers are thinking for price as well as what a huge chunk of demand can get done.
Truthfully, we were a bit surprised that the announced price was $422mt delivered.  This price is a solid gap lower than what was done last year and indicative of a global market that has seen values drop amid little to no demand.  That is why we thought we would see the price concluded slightly lower and possibly starting with a 3 rather than a 4.  
I learned long ago to not question the market as it has proven time and time again that it is smarter than I am.
Next global demand - China (global story)
With India concluding their annual purchase, sights are now set on China as it typically comes in right behind India to secure a lot of their needs.
There usually is not a large price difference between the countries but today it almost feels like tensions are higher.  If I am a manufacturer, I want higher prices but I'm also well aware of growing global production and likely low demand this summer (late Q2/Q3).
Will we see Chinese negotiators be successful in lowering the price which would send waves of fear thru the industry?  Will manufacturers hold firm and get a higher price on this 2nd layer of demand?
Time will tell.  Hopefully it will give me something to talk about in the June edition!!!!
North American values have risen, indicating a solid spring run (N.A. story)
As mentioned above, potash values have either moved sideways or lower almost every week since March/April '22.  Today, the NOLA potash price is almost exactly half of what it was this time last year.  That was only done as values have risen in recent weeks.
For me, this is a solid indication that North America has had and will continue to have a solid spring application run.  
When we started into March, we were optimistic demand.  The corn/potash ratio was very attractive.  Potash values were a shell of what they were going into spring 2022 so just the simple price drop was going to be attractive.  Farmers had scaled back application rates in recent seasons so the belief that "catch up" was coming was very real.
Then we started spring.  It was cold across most regions.  It was wet across most regions (sorry west Oklahoma/southwest Kansas, I'm not talking about you though congrats on the recent rains!!!).  It wasn't conducive to get in the fields.  Our beliefs of a solid spring run faded.
However, as the Ag sector does, it found a way.  We have talked with multiple folks across the U.S. who have reported very low inventory levels following solid demand.  It looks like we got it done.  Prices climbing helps to confirm that.
This has implications on summer price ideas.  If we had a poor spring, warehouses would already be mostly full.  Manufacturers would have fewer sales opportunities and would be sitting on growing unsold positions by the day which is not comfortable.  The ability to justify lower prices would have been there.  Now, with warehouses likely empty, manufacturers know they have a lot of demand in front of them.  There are many factors that go into setting prices but this factor means the summer price floor isn't as low as it was going to be.
Well done this spring, folks.
Where are current values in relation to the past
NOLA/New Orleans Louisiana 
  • Vs 30 days ago - +8% or approximately $30 higher
  • Vs 90 days ago - -1% or approximately $5 lower
  • Vs 6 months ago - -29% or approximately $165 lower
  • Vs 1 year ago - -51% or approximately $405 lower

image 70073

U.S. Midwest Average (average of several points across the Midwest)

  • Vs 30 days ago - +6% or approximately $26 higher
  • Vs 90 days ago - -1% or approximately $3 lower
  • Vs 6 months ago - -29% or approximately $193 lower
  • Vs 1 year ago - -43% or approximately $344 lower
Bull/Bear Factors
Because no market is ever guaranteed to go higher/lower, we try to consider the factors that can sway values so that we are able to act when they occur rather than react.
Bullish Factors 
  • Solid U.S. spring demand likely wiped out inventories – since March/April '22 (when all-time high values were set), potash values have dropped almost weekly.  However, last couple weeks have seen NOLA potash values rise.  This is a solid indication that spring was a success and inventories were wiped out (why else would someone pay higher for tonnage?).  With warehouses emptied, it means large demand available to manufacturers this summer.  This could buoy price ideas.
  • Belarus still largely cut from export marketplace - if you have been on this newsletter for a while, you might be thinking "we have been without Belarus for a while and prices have fallen the whole time so your argument is crap".  Yeah, I've had that thought as well.  However, prices falling is a testament to falling demand in my book.  If/when we see demand return, it will be facing a world supply that is tighter than normal.
  • Russia could quickly be removed from global trade – this is one of those "low probability/high impact" situations.  I do not believe that Russia is going to cross the world's thin red line.  I do not believe that Russian exports are going to be fully banned around the world.  That said, I also cannot guarantee that doesn't happen and if the last couple years have taught me anything, it is that we should never say never...
Bearish Factors 
  • Grain values continue to fall – this has been a fear of ours at StoneX for a while now.  If acreage gets planted as expected and growing conditions are favorable, grain values were going to see pressure.  Today, we are seeing that.  December 2024 corn (what I'm now watching for future correlations), as of my writing this, is trading at nearly $5.20/bushel.  While not a perfect correlation between grain and potash values, there is a high correlation.  If grain values continue to fall, demand will be in no hurry to step forward for fall needs...and prices could suffer.
  • If Lithuania made a 180, Belarusian exports could return very quickly – like Russia in the Bull Factor list, this is a low probability/high impact situation.  I do not believe that Lithuania will turn a 180.  I do not believe we will see Belarus return to 100% export levels.  However, if they did, prices will struggle to hold.
  • Global production costs still low and new production/increases still expected - since last March/April, potash values are half of what they were.  On the flip side, production costs around the world remain largely unchanged.  There is still margin in potash production and so little reason for global producers to slow/stop production.  
Where are the current potash/grain ratio values today?

We believe that only looking at the flat price of either grains or fertilizer can be misleading:

  • Only selling grain can hurt you if fertilizer prices rise substantially
  • Only buying fertilizer can hurt you if grain prices fall

We look at the ratio "value" to get a better indication of where we are or how many bushels of X does it take to pay for 1 ton of fertilizer.

Would you rather:

  • Spend 120 bushels to pay for 1 ton of potash
  • Spend 60 bushels to pay for 1 ton of potash

When we compare the current ratio value against recent years, we start to see if we are high or low.

YOUR VALUES WILL LOOK DIFFERENT

This graph looks at the NOLA potash price vs the flat grain price. There are no logistics on either product. Your location will look different due to fertilizer logistical costs, grain basis, etc.

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Josh Linville’s focal points
  • Belarus export ability/options - this is a focal point that I've listed for many months in a row.  As long as their exports remain mostly shut from the global market, I'm going to continue listing it.  They were the 3rd largest potash exporter in the world before Lithuania cut the logistical routes.  If they suddenly found a full return, you better believe it will have an effect on every ton of potash in each corner of the world.  
  • Russian export levels - from a recent supply POV, there really isn't a need to list this as a focal point.  Sure, they are one of the largest potash exporting countries in the world.  However, their export levels have remained largely unchanged (slightly lower to end 2022 but more due to lack of world demand).  However, given their continued actions in Ukraine and world fear of what is to come, we could lose them very quickly which would tighten global S&D very quickly and very violently.  Not expecting this to happen, but certainly watching.
  • December 2024 corn values - "Josh, we are still planting the 2023 corn crop.  Slow down." is likely what is going thru your head right now.  You are right...but not really.  With spring season full underway, the time for talk is over and is replaced with a time for action.  However, I am starting to look forward.  Scary but we are already having the "2024 crop mix forecast" conversations.  July 1 starts the new fertilizer year and without a decent expectation of crop mix, you cannot have a POV on needs.  Dec '24 corn values have been falling (setting fresh 52-week low's today) which is going to weigh on summer potash price ideas.  While not a perfect correlation, you and I both know that corn prices affect our approach to fertilizer/potash purchases.

All data was sourced from StoneX unless otherwise noted.

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