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Originally published as part of The Outlook Newsletter
Vol. 1, Issue 4C
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A single negative payrolls print did more than miss expectations, it reset how far the Federal Reserve is expected to move in 2026. With revisions clouding the data and forward guidance fading, the market is left to price the rate path largely on its own.
US ISM manufacturing and services PMIs signal resilient demand, although elevated prices and weaker services employment keep the Fed cautious.
Kevin Warsh's unexpectedly hawkish rhetoric in his debut press conference has challenged assumptions about the future direction of U.S. monetary policy and raised fresh questions about how independent the Federal Reserve can remain when markets come under pressure. As Treasury yields climb and risk assets weaken, investors are increasingly weighing whether inflation control or financial stability will ultimately shape the Federal Reserve's next move.
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