By: Fiona Cincotta, Senior Market Analyst
Middle East crude exports have rebounded sharply, easing immediate supply pressure despite the continuing conflict. Fiona Cincotta puts September regional exports at 16.32 million barrels per day, their highest level since the Iran War began in February. Yet exports remain 11% below pre-war levels, and signs of a concrete diplomatic breakthrough remain limited.
Fiona Cincotta, StoneX Media Senior Market Analyst, connects Middle East export data with moves in Brent and WTI. Her update combines supply figures, diplomatic developments and technical price levels, giving her analysis a direct link to the forces shaping this crude market.
Middle East oil exports have rebounded close to pre-war volumes, easing supply pressure while remaining below their prior level. Cincotta reports, “So crude exports from the Middle East producers actually rebounded quite strongly in September to around 16.32 million barrels per day.” That was the highest level since the Iran War began in February, while regional exports remained 11% below pre-war levels. Cincotta calls the recovery “really quite remarkable” given the continuing conflict. The rebound has helped limit the conflict’s immediate supply impact even as diplomatic prospects remain uncertain.
Crude oil prices have been shaped by recovering supply and persistent diplomatic uncertainty. Cincotta says “the impact on crude oil, though so far is relatively restricted” because Middle East exports had rebounded. She notes that stronger supply numbers helped push prices to a three-week low before a slight recovery amid uncertainty about diplomacy. In September, Brent traded around $98 a barrel and gained about 14%, while WTI hovered near $90 and was on track for a rise of about 4%. The contrast shows how export recovery can weigh on prices while unresolved diplomacy keeps geopolitical risk in view.
--- Written by Frédéric Guétin, StoneX TV Producer
--- Expert: Fiona Cincotta, StoneX Media Senior Market Analyst
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