More Frost Damage Estimates Circulate for Brazil’s Coffee Crop, Range Widens
CoffeeNetwork (New York) – Following two frost events in late July, the coffee market continues to speculate on damage to the coffee crop.
While the 2021-2022 coffee crop was spared any major impact, as this is mostly harvested, there are increasing concerns about the condition of the trees for the 2022-2023 and future crops.
Most recently, Comexim increased their forecast for the areas that incurred damage to 19% in South Minas (up from 12.5%), 13% in Sao Paulo (up from 8.5%). They maintained their forecasts of 13% in Cerrado and 11% in Parana.
Estimates of damage are wide-ranging, from 2 million bags to 10 million bags at this time.
Brazil’s official crop supply agency Conab said as much as 200,000 hectares – or approximately 11% of this year’s total cultivated area – was negatively hit by the frost. Other sources say as much as 30% of Brazil’s Arabica crop was affected.
There is also a notable vagueness with “damage.” If the trees are just damaged by the frost, it can take up to two years for the trees to fully recover, however if the tree dies from the frost and needs to be replaced, it can take four to five years before the new trees meet their maximum productive potential.
StoneX has announced plans to conduct their first crop survey of the 2022-2023 crop after the first flowering, which should provide a more accurate assessment of the crop as a whole, as well as the damage from frost.
Alexis Rubinstein
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