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Morning Ferrous Markets

By: Spencer Johnson, Risk Management Consultant

Morning Ferrous Markets


Spencer Johnson

Risk Management Consultant

+1 212-379-5492

spencer.johnson@stonex.com

Jay Horton

Base Metals Sales

+1 212-379-5553

john.horton@stonex.com


Market Overview

As the global economic landscape undergoes significant shifts, major commodities such as SGX Iron Ore, Turkish Steel Scrap, and US HRC Steel are at the forefront of market movements influenced by a complex interplay of economic policies and geopolitical developments. Amidst these changes, SGX Iron Ore has experienced a notable decline, with futures for May, February, and March delivery showing over a 2.3% drop, reflecting broader concerns about the sustainability of high import levels against faltering steel output in China. Meanwhile, Turkish Steel Scrap has seen a modest uptick in its March-25 futures, suggesting a resilient demand within the European markets. For US HRC Steel, the stability is evident with a slight increase in the February-25 futures, indicative of steady domestic demand despite global economic uncertainties. The recovery in Europe as interest rates decline, the Chinese real estate market, persistent global oversupply, and new, relatively uncertain sources demand from clean energy infrastructure remain key points in assessing changes within global ferrous markets.  

Upcoming Data Releases

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North American (US) HRC Steel Market

In North American markets, US HRC steel prices are experiencing downward pressure due to a combination of excess inventories and a destocking cycle that began in the second half of 2023. Spot prices for US Plate, a derivative product of HRC, have significantly declined by 25% year-to-date to $1,100/st, reflecting softening demand and overstock. Despite the negative short-term outlook, JPMorgan maintains a long-term bullish perspective based on expected demand growth from infrastructure projects and renewable energy sectors, particularly wind energy, which is projected to represent approximately 30% of US plate demand by 2030. The anticipation of increased infrastructure spending and supportive supply and demand fundamentals are expected to stabilize prices long-term, with forecasts suggesting a rebound to higher demand levels post-2025.

HRC Front Month 3 Day Trend

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StoneX & Bloomberg

HRC Front Month 6 Month Price Trend

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StoneX & Bloomberg

Chinese Steel & Iron Ore Markets

China's iron ore imports have remained robust throughout the year, consistently exceeding 100 million metric tons each month since March, accumulating to 513.75 million tons by May. Despite these substantial imports, China's steel production in April revealed a significant 7.2% year-on-year decrease. This downturn in production, coupled with weak margins at steel mills and low industry sentiment, underscores a stark mismatch between the high volume of iron ore imports and declining steel output. This scenario casts doubts on the sustainability of current import levels. Iron ore prices have shown volatility; after a decline, they saw a recovery which likely influenced the high import volumes. However, with inventories at ports reaching new highs and steel demand showing no signs of significant recovery, adjustments in iron ore imports may be necessary unless market conditions improve. Currently, the latest pricing for SGX Iron Ore stands at 103.8 USD/MT, reflecting a decline of approximately 2.17%. This shift in pricing is part of a broader pattern where fluctuations in the futures pricing curve continue to reflect underlying uncertainties in the market dynamics between iron ore supply and steel production demand.

SGX Iron Ore CFR China (62%) Futures

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StoneX & Bloomberg

European Steel and Steel Scrap Markets

In the European steel scrap market, a slight increase in Turkish Scrap Mar-25 futures, from 392.5 USD/MT to 393.0 USD/MT, reflects minimal yet positive movement amid broader European economic concerns. The recent European Parliamentary elections have influenced market sentiments as the rise of far-right parties could potentially complicate economic reforms across the continent. President Macron's response, a call for snap elections in France, further injects uncertainty into the market, possibly affecting future commodity prices and economic policies.

Turkish Scrap 1st Month Futures

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StoneX & Bloomberg

Current Prices

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StoneX & Bloomberg

  • Base Metals

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