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Morning Ferrous Markets

By: Spencer Johnson, Risk Management Consultant

Morning Ferrous Markets


Spencer Johnson

Risk Management Consultant

+1 212-379-5492

spencer.johnson@stonex.com

Jay Horton

Base Metals Sales

+1 212-379-5553

john.horton@stonex.com


Market Overview

US CPI report showed core consumer price index, a key measure Federal Reserve officials use to determine interest rates, cooled to the slowest pace in more than three years. Buoyed by expectations of rate cuts, commodity prices improved. Most notably, SGX Iron Ore futures  Meanwhile, in the European steel sector, Turkish steel scrap prices remained steady despite a lack of market activity, suggesting cautious trading behaviors. On the geopolitical front, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken confirmed that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu supports a US-proposed cease-fire with Hamas, marking a potential pivot towards peace in the region. Additionally, the Biden administration has expanded sanctions against Russia, targeting the sale of semiconductor chips and other goods, intensifying efforts to curb Moscow’s military capabilities amid ongoing conflict in Ukraine. This development offers a glimmer of hope for stabilization in a region that has persisted in conflict since October. US HRC prices muted, Turkish Steel Scrap even, and SGX Iron Ore down day over day.

Upcoming Data Releases

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North American (US) HRC Steel Market

The US steel industry remains focused on significant economic indicators and policy decisions, with the latest CPI data suggesting a potential slowdown in inflation. This could lead the Federal Reserve towards easing monetary policies later this year, influencing steel prices and demand. Recent market adjustments have seen US HRC for June 2024 rise by 1.37%, indicating a responsive market despite broader economic uncertainties. Additionally, concerns over geopolitical tensions and the ongoing Russian sanctions add layers of complexity to the global steel trade, influencing both market prices and availability.

HRC Front Month 3 Day Trend

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StoneX & Bloomberg

HRC Front Month 6 Month Price Trend

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StoneX & Bloomberg

Chinese Steel & Iron Ore Markets

Iron ore prices rebounded from their lowest level since April, buoyed by renewed optimism in China's property market, where new home transactions surged by over 60% shortly after the May Day holiday. This rise was supported by new property-boosting measures in major cities. This optimism for a potential market recovery contrasts with the recent plummet to a two-month low, where iron ore prices dropped significantly due to pessimistic macroeconomic expectations and a seasonal decline in demand. However, the surge in iron ore imports—consistently over 100 million metric tons monthly since March—contrasts starkly with the decline in steel production, which fell by 7.2% year-on-year as of April. This discrepancy is further highlighted by the latest price adjustments, with SGX Iron Ore for December 2024 increasing by 1.49%, reflecting a slightly more optimistic market outlook despite the overall challenging conditions.

SGX Iron Ore CFR China (62%) Futures

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StoneX & Bloomberg

European Steel and Steel Scrap Markets

European steel markets are navigating significant regulatory and market changes. The new European Commission safeguard regulations imposing a 15% cap on HRC imports from countries like Vietnam, Japan, Taiwan, and Egypt will drastically reduce imports by 1.63 million tons annually. This development is compounded by recent pricing dynamics where Turkish steel scrap, a critical import for European steel production, has seen minimal changes, remaining at $382/t CFR despite fluctuating global prices. The combination of regulatory caps and stable scrap prices is expected to tighten the available supply and may push EU buyers towards alternative sources, potentially increasing costs and impacting industries reliant on steel.

Turkish Scrap 1st Month Futures

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StoneX & Bloomberg

Current Prices

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StoneX & Bloomberg

  • Base Metals

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