Morning Ferrous Markets
Market Overview
Markets are largely stagnant in anticipation of the Fed's remarks this afternoon. Expectations surrounding June Chinese import / export data scheduled to be released Friday indicates a continued uptick in exports, which are dampening global ferrous market prices. Regionally, in North America, U.S. Midwest HRC Futures showed mixed signals with short-term increases (3-month at 778) but declines in mid-term (4-month at 800). In Asia, SGX TSI Iron Ore Futures declined across all contracts (3-month at 106, 4-month at 106, 12-month at 101) with weak demand in China. In Europe, LME Steel Scrap CFR remained stable with minor fluctuations, and Turkey's billet and bloom imports saw significant decreases. Jefferies expects European steel demand recovery to be delayed until 2025, with prices near their lowest but potential for a late 2024 rebound.
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North American (US) HRC Steel Market
In the North American ferrous market, U.S. Midwest Domestic HRC Futures showed mixed performance. The 3-month contract (HRC4) increased slightly by 2 points to 778, while the 4-month contract (HRC5) decreased by 4 points to 800. The 12-month contract (HRC12) saw a notable rise of 7 points, reaching 829.
The North American HRC Steel Futures market is currently exhibiting mixed signals, with short-term bullish momentum, oversold conditions, and stable benchmark prices indicating potential for price growth. Robust market participation and consumption growth further support this view. However, the presence of mixed trend strengths and some downward pressure suggests that caution is warranted. Overall, the market appears poised for a rebound, particularly in the short-term contracts, as traders capitalize on oversold conditions and stable consumption trends.
HRC Front Month 3 Day Trend

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HRC Front Month 6 Month Price Trend

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Chinese Steel & Iron Ore Markets
In the Asian market, SGX TSI Iron Ore Futures experienced declines across all observed contracts. The 3-month contract (SCO3) fell by 2 points to 106, the 4-month contract (SCO4) decreased by 1 point to 106, and the 12-month contract (SCO12) dropped by 4 points to 101. More specifically, the benchmark August iron ore contract on SHFE dropped 2.3% to $106.90 per metric ton, while the most-liquid September iron ore contract on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) fell 1.2% to 818.50 yuan per ton. On the input raw materials side, DCE coking coal fell 2.7% to 1,520 yuan per ton, and coke declined 1.3% to 2,209 yuan.
Market participants are looking to China’s key political meeting next week for potential supportive policies to boost steel demand, with traders emphasizing the need for detailed economic measures. Goldman Sachs remains cautious on iron ore, forecasting prices to remain around $100-$105 per ton for the rest of 2024. They note the marginal cost of iron ore is estimated at ~$75 per ton on a grade-adjusted basis.
More generally, China's exports are expected to grow at the fastest pace in fifteen months in June, as manufacturers front-loaded shipments in anticipation of tariffs from major export markets. Specifically, trade data expected on Friday is anticipated to show exports grew 8.0% year-on-year by value, up from the 7.6% increase in May. Imports likely grew 2.8%, faster than May's 1.8% gain. Despite efforts to stimulate domestic demand, the economy faces a prolonged property slump and consumer confidence issues.
Downstream, steel prices in China fell to a three-month low due to weak construction demand. SHFE rebar dropped to 3,483 yuan ($478.73) per ton, its lowest since April 8. Domestic demand recovery remains slow, with construction data showing a significant decline. SHFE hot-rolled coil fell to 3,688 yuan, wire rod to 3,665 yuan, and stainless steel to 13,955 yuan. Despite weak demand, price declines are expected to be limited. India’s steel imports surged to a six-year high due to increased Chinese shipments.
SGX Iron Ore CFR China (62%) Futures

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European Steel and Steel Scrap Markets
LME Steel Scrap CFR remained stable, with the 3-month contract (JBO3) down 1 point to 387, the 4-month contract (JBO4) unchanged at 387, and the 12-month contract (JBO12) down 1 point to 393. Turkey's billet and bloom imports in May decreased significantly year-on-year and month-on-month. Jefferies is cautious about the European steel sector's Q2, expecting demand recovery to be delayed until 2025, with steel prices nearing their lowest point but anticipating a recovery in late 2024 or 2025.
Turkish Scrap 1st Month Futures

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