Quarterly Commodities Outlook is available for free now.  Download your report  →

StoneX logo

Morning Ferrous Markets

By: Spencer Johnson, Risk Management Consultant

Morning Ferrous Markets


Spencer Johnson

Risk Management Consultant

+1 212-379-5492

spencer.johnson@stonex.com

Jay Horton

Base Metals Sales

+1 212-379-5553

john.horton@stonex.com


Market Overview

Markets are largely stagnant in anticipation of the Fed's remarks this afternoon. Expectations surrounding June Chinese import / export data scheduled to be released Friday indicates a continued uptick in exports, which are dampening global ferrous market prices. Regionally, in North America, U.S. Midwest HRC Futures showed mixed signals with short-term increases (3-month at 778) but declines in mid-term (4-month at 800). In Asia, SGX TSI Iron Ore Futures declined across all contracts (3-month at 106, 4-month at 106, 12-month at 101) with weak demand in China. In Europe, LME Steel Scrap CFR remained stable with minor fluctuations, and Turkey's billet and bloom imports saw significant decreases. Jefferies expects European steel demand recovery to be delayed until 2025, with prices near their lowest but potential for a late 2024 rebound.

Upcoming Data Releases

image-20240709075301-1

North American (US) HRC Steel Market

In the North American ferrous market, U.S. Midwest Domestic HRC Futures showed mixed performance. The 3-month contract (HRC4) increased slightly by 2 points to 778, while the 4-month contract (HRC5) decreased by 4 points to 800. The 12-month contract (HRC12) saw a notable rise of 7 points, reaching 829.

The North American HRC Steel Futures market is currently exhibiting mixed signals, with short-term bullish momentum, oversold conditions, and stable benchmark prices indicating potential for price growth. Robust market participation and consumption growth further support this view. However, the presence of mixed trend strengths and some downward pressure suggests that caution is warranted. Overall, the market appears poised for a rebound, particularly in the short-term contracts, as traders capitalize on oversold conditions and stable consumption trends.

HRC Front Month 3 Day Trend

image-20240709075816-6

StoneX & Bloomberg

HRC Front Month 6 Month Price Trend

image-20240710083137-3

StoneX & Bloomberg

Chinese Steel & Iron Ore Markets

In the Asian market, SGX TSI Iron Ore Futures experienced declines across all observed contracts. The 3-month contract (SCO3) fell by 2 points to 106, the 4-month contract (SCO4) decreased by 1 point to 106, and the 12-month contract (SCO12) dropped by 4 points to 101. More specifically, the benchmark August iron ore contract on SHFE dropped 2.3% to $106.90 per metric ton, while the most-liquid September iron ore contract on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) fell 1.2% to 818.50 yuan per ton. On the input raw materials side, DCE coking coal fell 2.7% to 1,520 yuan per ton, and coke declined 1.3% to 2,209 yuan.

Market participants are looking to China’s key political meeting next week for potential supportive policies to boost steel demand, with traders emphasizing the need for detailed economic measures. Goldman Sachs remains cautious on iron ore, forecasting prices to remain around $100-$105 per ton for the rest of 2024. They note the marginal cost of iron ore is estimated at ~$75 per ton on a grade-adjusted basis. 

More generally, China's exports are expected to grow at the fastest pace in fifteen months in June, as manufacturers front-loaded shipments in anticipation of tariffs from major export markets. Specifically, trade data expected on Friday is anticipated to show exports grew 8.0% year-on-year by value, up from the 7.6% increase in May. Imports likely grew 2.8%, faster than May's 1.8% gain. Despite efforts to stimulate domestic demand, the economy faces a prolonged property slump and consumer confidence issues.

Downstream, steel prices in China fell to a three-month low due to weak construction demand. SHFE rebar dropped to 3,483 yuan ($478.73) per ton, its lowest since April 8. Domestic demand recovery remains slow, with construction data showing a significant decline. SHFE hot-rolled coil fell to 3,688 yuan, wire rod to 3,665 yuan, and stainless steel to 13,955 yuan. Despite weak demand, price declines are expected to be limited. India’s steel imports surged to a six-year high due to increased Chinese shipments.

SGX Iron Ore CFR China (62%) Futures

image-20240710083113-2

StoneX & Bloomberg

European Steel and Steel Scrap Markets

LME Steel Scrap CFR remained stable, with the 3-month contract (JBO3) down 1 point to 387, the 4-month contract (JBO4) unchanged at 387, and the 12-month contract (JBO12) down 1 point to 393. Turkey's billet and bloom imports in May decreased significantly year-on-year and month-on-month. Jefferies is cautious about the European steel sector's Q2, expecting demand recovery to be delayed until 2025, with steel prices nearing their lowest point but anticipating a recovery in late 2024 or 2025.

Turkish Scrap 1st Month Futures

image-20240710083055-1

StoneX & Bloomberg

Current Prices

image-20240710083209-4

StoneX & Bloomberg

  • Base Metals

This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the individual authors or presenters. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers.


The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.


The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.


References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.


StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.

R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.


StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.


This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.


StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).


SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.


StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism.


StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.


StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.


StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.


Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.


The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.


© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Satellite view of Earth at night showing illuminated cities across Asia and the Middle East

Discover more insights

Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.

StoneX: We open markets

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.

Reach

With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.

Transparency

As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve; our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.

Expertise

From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.