By: Tom Pawlicki, Senior Specialist, Market Intelligence
The natural gas market has seen more bullish news from the Middle East in the last few days, however, Henry Hub prices remain subdued based on high US inventories and an inability to export any more LNG.
QatarEnergy said on March 4 that it would declare force majeure on gas exports due to the risk to its production facilities and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran. It said that once it eventually makes a decision to restart, it would take another two weeks to get equipment up to speed. That was upended on Wednesday when Iran attacked the facility. After evaluating the damage, Qatari officials said today that the attack damaged 17% of its output capacity and that it would take 3-5 years to restore that capacity.
The Iranian attack on Qatar was revenge for the Israeli attack on Iran’s South Pars gas field earlier in the week. President Trump tried to defuse the issue of energy infrastructure attacks today by saying that no more Iranian energy would be attacked, but if Iran attacks Qatar again, the US would completely destroy South Pars. Iran may have agreed, as Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that Iran would have “zero restraint” if the country’s infrastructure is hit again. It will remain to be seen whether Iran holds off on more energy infrastructure attacks, but the “if-then” statement from Iran may give some hope. Oil prices were able to fall from their late-morning highs throughout the second half of the trading day.
Natural gas prices in the US remain subdued in the low $3.00/MMBtu area despite the events in the Middle East, while LNG prices in Europe have soared. LNG prices in Europe jumped from around €32/MWh before the war to around €55/MWh last week. The news regarding QatarEnergy pushed prices above €60/MWh today.
US prices remain weighed down by an inability to export more and by high inventory levels. US waterborne LNG exports rose to a high of 16.68 Bcf/d in December, and were last reported at 16.07 Bcf/d in February. Capacity is somewhere in the 17-19 Bcf/d range, which would imply that exporters are running somewhere in the 90%-100% of capacity range and are likely near maximum levels.
Natural gas inventories in today’s update from the EIA showed a build of 35 Bcf. If the prior week represents the low point for the seasonal cycle and there are no more withdrawals, it would mark one of the earliest builds in inventories since 2010. The bottom made in the week ending March 6 edged out the low point in 2025 in the week ending March 7 and the bottom in 2012 made in the week ending March 9. Since 2010, the weekly low has been made on average around March 24. The five-year average reaches its low point this year in the week ending March 27.
Natural gas inventory levels are healthy too, with 1,848 Bcf at this year’s low point holding above the 15-year average of low points at 1,708 Bcf. The US market remains flush with gas, which is interesting given the doubling in prices that took place in late-January on cold weather that was completely expected.
The outlook going forward seems to show global prices focusing on potential support from the continuation of the war in the Middle East, while the bearish side looks at US prices being weighed by the inability to export more LNG and because of the approaching shoulder season of weak demand for gas.
This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.
The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.
References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.
StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.
R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.
StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.
This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.
StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).
SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.
StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism.
StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.
StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.
StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
Global economies are increasingly facing a shift where inflation proves more persistent even as growth begins to slow. Repeated supply shocks are no longer temporary disruptions but are starting to reshape expectations and policy responses.
Market pullbacks happen frequently, yet they continue to unsettle investors more than they should. Historical data shows these declines are a normal part of equity cycles rather than a sign of deeper market stress.
Rising oil prices are beginning to weigh on hiring as U.S. labor demand shows early signs of cooling. This shift is creating new risks for economic growth as cost pressures build.
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve; our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.
