Daily Coffee Report 8/5/26
Daily coffee report
StoneX Coffee Team
- Coffee
New Report Highlights Coffee Shop Sales Slowdown Amid Permanent Remote Working Shift
By: Alexis Rubinstein, Managing Editor - Coffee Network
New Report Highlights Coffee Shop Sales Slowdown Amid Permanent Remote Working ShiftCoffeeNetwork (New York) – In a new report published by the Bank of America institute, it was concluded that remote work for millions of workers during the pandemic meant fewer visits to coffee shops near offices. Despite return-to-office, survey data suggests workers still spent one third of all paid work days working from home.
Aggregated and anonymized merchant data from Bank of America Global Transactions Services suggest that while coffee shop sales volume rebounded significantly since the initial lockdown in 2020, it has plateaued in recent months and is still below pre-pandemic levels. This highlights the ongoing structural change in the nature of work.
Regionally, coffee shop sales volume is well-above pre-pandemic levels in California, Texas and North Carolina while below pre-pandemic levels in New York and Florida. This change in the geographic pattern of demand that is implied by increased prevalence of remote work continues to have implications for the economy even as the pandemic fades. The big shift to working from home At the outset of the pandemic, there was a rapid transition in working arrangements for many people, with an increase in time spent working from home, or remote working, rather than in an office. At times this was mandated due to lockdowns, particularly over the earlier part of the pandemic. But even as lockdowns and other restrictions have lifted there has been an increased prevalence of working from home compared to pre-pandemic times.
The survey utilized aggregated and anonymized merchant data from Bank of America Global Transactions Services to look at the volume (the number of transactions) of sales at coffee shops as another gauge of working from home. The logic is simple people tend to grab a coffee during their morning commute and at other times during the day when working in the office. If they are working from home their demand for coffee shop products will likely decline – while they may substitute demand for coffee close to the office with demand for coffee close to home somewhat, on balance they are less likely to go out for coffee if they can get some at home. Moreover, coffee shops also sell food, and again people are more likely to make their own breakfast, lunch and snacks when at home. The attraction of the merchant data is that it covers a large number of transactions at coffee shops.
The average value of monthly transactions covered by the indicator is $100MM+ in 2022, representing 10 million individual transactions per month. The data is monthly but potentially could be monitored at higher frequencies. Exhibit 2 plots the volume of coffee shop sales from the Bank of America Global Transaction Services merchant data against the SWAA. It shows a broadly similar pattern, with the volume of sales dropping sharply at the start of the pandemic. Mask mandates and other restrictions on social interactions will all have negatively impacted the volume of sales. But as with the SWAA, the volume of coffee shop sales has rebounded as the pandemic has eased. Interestingly however, even with most pandemic restrictions now lifted it appears that the coffee shop sales volume has not rebounded to its pre-pandemic levels. This is consistent with the SWAA data as well. Taken together, this data implies the increased prevalence of remote work is persisting and shows relatively little sign of rising back to the ‘old normal’.
The survey finds that California, Texas and North Carolina are well above the pre-pandemic level. For Texas and North Carolina this could potentially partly reflect migration trends, given their recent population growth, which will have likely boosted aggregate coffee shop sales in these regions. New York and Florida’s data indicates that sales remain below January 2020 levels. For New York, this likely reflects continued prevalence of working from home.
They survey also looks at the volume of coffee shop sales in Midtown New York City. This geography is densely packed with offices and would likely show changes in working from home trends clearly. The volume of sales dropped further for Midtown NYC over the outset of the pandemic than in the overall US but has recently rebounded a little above the overall US.
Again, though, the level of the volume of sales is below the January 2020 level for both and the changes may also reflect a recovery in tourism. Why does any of this matter? Well, for one, we think it highlights the ongoing structural change in the nature of work and it appears that a relatively ‘sticky’ level of working from home is currently occurring. This change in the geographic pattern of demand that is implied by increased prevalence of remote work continues to have implications for the economy even as the pandemic fades. The data may also be useful to track the impact on remote work from further waves of Covid-19.
Alexis Rubinstein
- Coffee
This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.
The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.
References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.
StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.
R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.
StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.
This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.
StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism. SAP is an “Approved International Trading Company” authorized to act as a “Spot Commodity Broker” under the Commodity Trading Act.
StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).
SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.
StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism.
StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.
StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.
StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Discover more insights
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
Related articles for Coffee
Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 5
August 5 – U.S. equities markets are on fire this week, with both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 setting new all-time highs yesterday with futures indicating further gains again today; the marketplace remains optimistic over a deal with Iran despite no evidence of such as of yet. Crude oil is working on a lower high and low today but remains slightly on the high side on the session, while the dollar is retreating back towards Monday’s nearly two-month low. The ten-year note is steady-to-lower this morning (though solidly lower so far this month) at 4.605%, while the VIX index continues to rebound into mid-week at almost a 17-point reading this morning.
Matt Zeller
- Grains & Oilseeds
- Energy
- Dairy
- Renewable Fuels
- Cocoa
- Coffee
- Cotton
- Sugar
- Meats & Livestock
- Forest Products
El Niño Keeps Brazil's Coffee Growers Watching the Sky for the Rain
Brazil could still deliver a record arabica crop, but the bigger question for growers is what the next season holds. Out of season flowering and the swing of El Niño have put the spotlight on the rains still to come.
Editorial Team
- Coffee
StoneX: We open markets
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve; our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.