Daily Coffee Report 8/10/26
Daily coffee report
StoneX Coffee Team
- Coffee
New Report Highlights Rising Sea Freights, Fertilizer Price Spikes for Brazil
By: Alexis Rubinstein, Managing Editor - Coffee Network
New Report Highlights Rising Sea Freights, Fertilizer Price Spikes for Brazil
CoffeeNetwork (New York) – Prices for maritime transport of cargo continue to rise for Brazil, up 20% year on year in some scenarios. A new report titled the Logistics Bulletin released by Brazil’s National Supply Company, CONAB, highlighted that for fertilizers from Europe to Brazil, sea freight costs increased around 10% from 46 to 50 dollars per ton. However, if the origin of the products is Egypt, the increase goes from 20%, reaching 12 dollars per tonne.
"The increase in sea freight prices is explained not only by the increase in oil barrel values, which impacts fuel, but also by the smaller number of routes available, especially in the Black Sea region. With this, there is a greater demand for other routes, in addition to a lower availability of ships", explains the Superintendent of Operational Logistics, Thomé Guth.
The bulletin also highlights an expectation of greater pressure in the demand for freight in the country, especially in the second half of the year, a period in which the volume of shipments of products for export is higher.
Brazilian imports of fertilizers in January and February were 5.3 million tons, below that of the previous year.
According to the International Fertilizer Association - IFA (acronym in English), Russia has positioned itself as the second largest potash exporting country, followed by Belarus as third, and also a strong ally in this war with Ukraine. Fertilizer production in Russia has companies among the world's largest fertilizer producers, such as PhosAgro, Uralkali, Acron and Eurochem (despite having its base in Switzerland, it has many facilities in Russia). Russia is also the third largest nitrogen producer. Another highlight is that Russia is also among the largest producers of natural gas and oil - whichdirectly impacts international fuel prices.
Brazil is responsible for 8% of the total consumption of fertilizers in the world, of this volume more than 80% are imported, Russia is the main supplier, especially with regard to nitrogen and potassium. In 2021 of the 5 biggest fertilizer exporters to Brazil, Russia and Belarus were responsible for almost 30% of the total imported.
Given this, the war scenario generates numerous concerns in relation to the supply of fertilizers, especially after the various sanctions imposed on the Russian government by NATO, including the suspension of Russia's Swift system of international payments, which directly impacts the commercial relations between national importers and Russian companies and industries; the closure of the port of Lithuania, making it difficult for ships to dock; some regions near the Black Sea are prohibited from commercial shipping by the government of Vladimir Putin. Therefore, this whole scenario has hampered export trade and logistics and fertilizer import.
In addition to causing an increase in the price of fertilizers, this situation has caused an increase in freight prices, making the product even more expensive in the domestic market. For example: for fertilizers leaving Europe, Brazil has already seen an increase of US$ 4.00/ton in maritime freight in one month. Countries like Egypt and Morocco, who are also exporters of fertilizers to Brazil even had an increase in sea freight by US$ 12.00/ton.
According to the National Association for the Diffusion of Fertilizers, fertilizer stocks on December 31 was 7.3 million tons, plus the 5.2 million tons imported in the months of January and February, and March expected to be around 2.3 million, consumption is just above 40.0 million tons. Therefore, there is still no need for concern in the first half of the year.
It is believed that, possibly, the Brazilian market will seek other suppliers such as Canada, Morocco and China, for example, to minimize this risk, should the conflict and sanctions last longer.
However, this dependence sparked a need for the country to increase its domestic production capacity of fertilizers, mainly the main micronutrients such as nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium, the latter being the most urgent, since Brazil, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply - Mapa imports 94% of its current need.
In the National Fertilizer Plan, which aims to reduce this dependence in the medium and long term (next 28 years), there are indications of exploration of existing potash mines in the country.
Alexis Rubinstein
- Coffee
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