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OPEC+ Meeting : Hold, Deepen or Relieve Production Cuts?

By: Harry Altham, Energy Analyst, Market Analysis EMEA & Asia

OPEC+ Meeting : Hold, Deepen or Relieve Production Cuts?
 
Harry Altham
Energy Analyst, EMEA & Asia

Brent has encountered technical resistance at the 200 day moving average for the second time this month, with spot prices edging down by $1/bbl as the market waits to take its signal from the forthcoming OPEC+ policy meeting and weekly DOE data. Ahead of the weekly release, the market brushed off last night’s huge 9.1M bbd U.S. crude build in data from the American Petroleum Institute, with today’s events among the most eagerly anticipated in the market for several weeks. 

image 84557
Sources: JODI, StoneX
In a sign that the market’s once-deep (e.g. during August) supply deficit has narrowed significantly (to an equilibrium), the prompt spread has dipped into a contango for the second time in a week; at-0.08/bbl, it is three cents off becoming the largest prompt contango since June. That said, the tight inventories in the West of Suez geographies keep the remainder of the forward curve firmly backwardated, despite clear weakening through the first three quarters of 2024.
Ahead of OPEC+’s meeting, Morgan Stanley stated that it sees non-OPEC supply as rising by 1.4M bbd in 2024. With global demand growth expected to be in the region of 1M bbd (StoneX, EIA, IEA forecasts (notably not OPEC)), this would mean that non-OPEC production is likely to not only cover consumption next year but restock dented global inventories outside China. Such forecasts are not without risks, particularly as 14% of that production is part of the quota compliant ‘+’ section of OPEC+ - which leads us nicely into today’s crucial meeting. 
Interestingly, JP Morgan released a note ahead of the meeting which expressed its view that OPEC+ would extend its production cuts into H1 2024, while S&P predicted a global inventory build stretching into Q2 2024. This morning, Alexander Novak, the Russian Deputy Prime Minister, said the market is balanced and that ‘oil prices objectively reflect current situation, they are on quite a good level’. 
Certainly, our assessment of the market concurs with the Deputy Prime Minister on both counts; our analysis is that supply and demand are currently close to equilibrium and prices accurately reflect that reality. What is more poignant is the latter half of his statement, which threatens to pit Russia against some of the Gulf States who have frequently warned against shorting the market and are widely thought to be increasingly price-driven. Those calling for higher prices might call on the inventory relationship as an example, which indicates the market is roughly $5/bbl below where we should be. However, this is a game of supply and demand – and that will be difficult for the Gulf States to argue against. 
To be clear, we see OPEC+ as being most likely extending their production cuts (including voluntary ones) into January 2024, which could extend to the end of Q1. In the event of a supply change, our view is that there is a heavy skew towards additional cuts than a relief to them, particularly with recent demand-side data from China amid price pressure from producers such as Saudi Arabia. Given the current balance of the market (remember, following on from a deficit), an additional supply cut would send a clear message that OPEC policy will determine an era of price-driven oil, rather than one driven by fundamental balances. 
 
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