Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for April 14

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Tue, 14 Apr 2026, 16:33

Today's Perspective Video: Iran Blockade Escalates: What It Means for Oil, Fertilizer & Grain Markets

April 14 - Energy prices dropped and stocks rallied as Wall Street hopes for an Iran peace deal rose this morning amid signs that the door remains open for more negotiations. I am skeptical that those in charge in Iran will ever give up on their hatred for Israel, which goes back thousands of years, or for America which has been a friend of Israel throughout its history. I'm skeptical that they will be willing to give up on their aspirations of having a nuclear weapon as well. But the possibility is there that they could agree to U.S. demands to abandon their nuclear ambitions in order to survive for another day down the road when they might have the another opportunity. The markets don't think about that longer term risk, but focus on the prospects for peace today. As such, the possibility of an agreement tends to be positive for money flow into those sectors that prosper in good times, like stocks.

As such, stocks rallied through much of the morning today, with both the S&P and the Nasdaq stock indices trading at pre-war levels. Think about that for a moment. Stocks are trading at pre-war levels, suggesting that either a) the war doesn't matter, or b) investors feel like it will soon be over, allowing the stimulus currently in the economy and in the tax structure to create strong growth. That's ignoring the impacts of the war yet to come, even if it ends tomorrow, which is the long tail of the war that I discussed in this morning's commentary. I do believe that there are lots of reasons for optimism the rest of the year if the war soon ends, but it will not be without some stress points - likely coupled with inflation risks for energy, and possibly food commodities as part of the long tail of the war that I discussed in this morning's commentary. The following is commentary written by StoneX Director of Market Strategy - Energy Alex Hodes in this morning's Kansas City Morning Energy Brief:

"US truckers are facing the highest diesel prices in years as the Iran war and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz drive up fuel costs, adding significant pressure on the industry that moves nearly three-quarters of the nation's freight. The national average retail diesel price has surged $1.89, or 50%, since the conflict began, reaching $5.52 per gallon — surpassing the previous record set in 2022. Small carriers and owner-operators are hit hardest, with many halting operations, reducing miles, or teetering on the edge of bankruptcy, while larger fleets use surcharges and discounts to cope. The spike is also raising concerns for consumers, as higher transportation costs could push up prices for everything from groceries to manufactured goods ahead of the November midterms, creating a political challenge for President Trump. Analysts warn that without a lasting ceasefire or resolution in the Middle East, diesel prices could climb even higher, further squeezing the sector and the broader economy."

Mexico purchased 12.4 million bushels of U.S. corn over the past 24 hours, but that wasn't the surprising part. The deal called for just 2.6 million bushels of the total to be delivered in the current marketing year, with 5.5 million bushels delivered in the 2026-27 marketing year, and 4.4 million bushels delivered in the 2027-28 marketing year. Some translate that as a concern of at least one buyer that the war related reductions in global fertilizer supplies might lead to higher corn prices over the next couple years. Corn also found tailwinds today from surging wheat prices. Those prices pushed higher, led by Kansas City, based on a couple of factors. The fertilizer story has the funds worried about long term global wheat production risks, but those were amplified by Monday afternoon's U.S. crop ratings showing more deterioration in the Plains crop where drought remains an issue.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 6

August 6 – Stocks remain quietly mixed at midday as both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones remain just below their fresh all-time highs put in yesterday. This is allowing the VIX to cool to a four-week low below the 15.4 mark, reflecting the collective sigh of relief in the market amid largely better than expected U.S. economic data today. The dollar remains quietly in the green in its relatively tight range this week, trading at 99.9 at the time of writing. Treasuries remain elevated but have cooled from their recent peaks, with 30-year yields trading at 5.189%, 10-year yields trading at 4.647%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.229% at midday. Crude oil also remains quietly in the green, with nearby WTI up 2.3% on the day trading near $76.80 and nearby Brent up 2.4% on the day trading near $81.40. The ags remain mixed, with the wheat complex now squarely in the red while corn and soybeans cling to small gains, and the livestock complex largely pushes lower.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 15:18

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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