Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for April 3

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Fri, 04 Apr 2025, 16:30

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

April 4 - Stocks plummeted for the second day in a row after China added another 34% to its tariffs that it already charges the United States. That created more fear on Wall Street that we would see an escalating trade war with China. Fear is the driver currently, with cooler heads still on the sideline. The VIX traded as high as 45.6 on the China announcement, while it is currently trading near 40. My observation over the decades is that it is difficult for any asset to sustain a rally when the VIX is above 30 unless that asset has a strong story of its own. Note from the graphic below that sustained moves above 50 are quite rare, with the most notable examples being the Great Recession of 2008, the pandemic of 2020, and then the Yen/dollar carry trade unwind last August.

As such, my primary focus currently is on the VIX. Keep in mind that Algo computers put on order that chase momentum, magnifying the moves in both bull and bear markets. That then amplifies the human emotions of those most impacted by those market moves, keeping the VIX elevated. That's the phase that we're currently in. Emotions are high, and our trading partners love to see the U.S. stock market crash in the short run, although a strong American economy is always best for the world in the long run. But in the short run, countries like China hope that the lower stock market will put political pressure on President Trump to back down from his tariff plan, and you may or may not be part of that desire as well. Certainly, there are many people who liked the status quo that continued to support new highs in the market, although the mounting debt necessary to sustain that was unsustainable. Meanwhile, the aforementioned fear plays into the hands of our major trading partners such as China. The Dow Jones Industrial Average broke 18.6% on tariff fears in late 2018, before rebounding to new highs by February. That's not a forecast of what to expect this time, as the dynamics are much different. But my point is that the U.S. economy has weathered many storms over the years - each time coming back stronger.

Treasury yields fell to fresh six-month lows this morning as fear continued to drive investors to the relative safety of government securities. Fed fund futures are pricing in 100 basis points of cuts by the end of the year, with the first of those to come in June. That could all change with the next headline, but that's what the market is currently expecting, based on the fear that the tariffs will drive us into recession. The Fed may or may not agree with that assessment. For now, it seems to want to take a "wait and see" attitude. Yet, the lower Treasury yields also work to stimulate the economy. Consumers of commodities are being given a gift with this liquidation. The only question is one of timing. Low prices are the best cure for low prices. The corn market currently looks to be the first of the major commodities to see that dynamic play out, with prices trading positive at times once again today, similar to Thursday. More commodities will likely follow, but first we need to see the VIX drop back below 30, reflecting easing fear levels.

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Grains & Oilseeds

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 11

August 11 – It was generally a quiet night for the markets until early this morning when a headline hit that Iran and Oman were close to reaching a deal. Stock futures rallied, while the dollar index followed Treasury yields lower, along with active selling in the energy- and food-based commodities. The headline had limited impact though in a world that has become skeptical of promises of peace. Stock futures remain steady to firmer at this hour, while the VIX trades near 16 – just above 2026 lows. The dollar index is trading near 99.8 this morning, after recovering from its early morning selloff over the following hour of trade. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.69%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.22%. WTI crude oil is trading near $82 per barrel at this hour, while Brent trades near $88. The grain and oilseed markets are mostly weaker, after failing to recover from this morning’s early selloff that started in the crude oil market.

Arlan SudermanTue, 11 Aug 2026, 13:21

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
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Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 10

August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 13:51

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

Grains & Oilseeds

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